Doc's College Football Insider: Week 10
by Drew Mangione and Jordan Adams - 11/08/2006
Who's injured? Who's streaking? Who has the advantage in this weekend's games? What tips and trends are out there that could sway your plays? Here's an underground look at what's going down in the World of College Football:
Key Games: Miami (Fl.) at No. 23 Maryland (-3), 3:30 p.m. Saturday
No. 18 Wake Forest at Florida State (-9), 8 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: As of Wednesday afternoon, Miami coach Larry Coker said the team intends to play Saturday against Maryland following the murder of defensive tackle Bryan Pata outside his apartment…Hurricanes quarterback Kyle Wright has a soft cast on his throwing hand because of a sprained thumb, but his head coach had not by mid-week said if he would bench the starter who has borne the criticism for an anemic Hurricane offense. Coker did say that regardless, backup quarterback Kirby Freeman would play some…Florida State coach Bobby Bowden said Xavier Lee will start again this week against Wake Forest. Strong safety Darius McClure is out with a left shoulder injury. The Seminoles have won 14 ACC games against the Demon Deacons by more than 30 points per contest.
Key Games: No. 3 Louisville (-6.5) at No. 15 Rutgers, 7:30 p.m., Thursday
Cincinnati at No. 10 West Virginia (-18.5), noon, Saturday
Conference Notes: Rutgers running back Ray Rice was limited in practice some last week, but had resumed his full reps in practice by Sunday without signs of his ankle injury. Rice and fullback Brian Leonard average about 180 yards per game this season, but were held to just 79 on 20 carries last year in the Scarlet Knights' 56-5 loss. The over is 6-1 in Rutgers' last seven games after a bye…Syracuse is 2-2 against the spread (ATS) since running off seven straight ATS wins that ended with their first three straight up wins. The under is 4-0 in the Orange's recent games on grass and 4-0 in the Bulls' last four November games…Cincinnati's run defense ranks 13th in the nation at 89.3 yards per game, but allowed 155 yards to Ohio State's Antonio Pittman and 170 yards to Virginia Tech's Brandon Ore. West Virginia's Steve Slaton is second in the nation with 151.88 yards per game.
Key Games: Georgia at No. 5 Auburn (-12.5), 12:30 p.m., Saturday
South Carolina at No. 6 Florida (-13.5), 3:30 p.m., Saturday
No. 13 Tennessee at No. 11 Arkansas (-5.5), 7 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: The Georgia Bulldogs will stick it out with freshman quarterback Matthew Stafford, despite the team's loss last week, the fourth in five games. The team has made several changes to the starting lineups and the latest is on special teams where punter Gordon Ely-Kelso will replace kicker Andy Bailey on the field goal unit. Wide receiver Demiko Goodman tore his anterior cruciate ligament in the team's loss to Kentucky, but played on it, believing it was a calf injury. He is now out for the season… The Fightin' Volunteers will be without supposed peacemaker Arian Foster for the first half of Saturday's game against Arkansas, while the two players whose argument developed into a squabble will be out, David Holbert for one game and Antonio Wardlow for two…Steve Spurrier was a favorite in his home match up against his old Florida program last year and covered in a 30-22 win. In his return to Florida, he is a big underdog as the Gamecocks look to win for the first time in 11 games at the swamp. South Carolina is 4-1 in the last 5 games in which the team was an underdog of 10.5 or more.
Key Games: No. 14 Boise State (-14.5) at San Jose State, 6 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: In the last two match ups of Boise State and San Jose State, the Spartans covered spreads of 32 and 33 in two SU losses. The Broncos and their opponents have surpassed the over in eight straight games when Boise State is a road favorite…Hawaii junior quarterback Colton Brennan is up to 39 passing touchdowns in his second year as a starter and in his tenure the team is 4-0-1 ATS as a favorite of 18 or more, though the largest spread before this weekend's 38, was 25.5. Louisiana Tech has lost SU and ATS in its last four games as an underdog of 23 or more.
Key Games: Nebraska (-1) at No. 24 Texas A&M, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
Texas Tech at No. 17 Oklahoma (-8.5), 7 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: Two high scoring Big 12 teams meet in Stillwater this Saturday. The Bears are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record but are 7-3 against the number over their last 10 road games…1-9 Colorado is still in search of its second win. At home this weekend, they get 3-7 Iowa State. The Buffs have covered just one of their last nine conference games while the Cyclones are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games…The game of the day in the conference is in College Station where Nebraska takes on the Aggies. Both are still looking to improve their bowl resumes and while Nebraska has won five of the last six meetings, the Cornhuskers are 2-2 on the road and have looked considerably worse…OU has won four straight since their setback to Texas in the Red River Shootout back in early October. The Sooners are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games but the underdog in their series against Texas Tech is 7-3 ATS. One loss Texas puts its perfect 4-0 road record on the line against 6-4 Kansas State. UT is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 night games while KSU is 1-7 ATS when the sun is down.
Key Games: No. 16 Wisconsin (OFF) at Iowa, 12 p.m., Saturday
Minnesota (-2) at Michigan State, 12 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: A pair of underachievers gets together when 4-6 Minnesota and Michigan State square off. The Gophers are 9-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record…Purdue visits Illinois fresh off the Ilini's scare against No. 1 Ohio State. Despite their 2-8 record, Illinois is 5-4 ATS this season…With the uncertainty of Badger starting quarterback John Stocco playing, the line is currently off. Iowa has been miserable against the number, posting a 1-8 ATS record this season. Conversely, Wisconsin is 7-1-1 ATS in '06…The final test for both Ohio State and Michigan before their showdown next weekend. The Buckeyes are on the road in Evanston to face 3-7 Northwestern. The Wolverines are away from home as well, getting 5-5 Indiana. Michigan is just 5-4-1 ATS, however the Hoosiers are 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Key Games: Oregon State (-2) at UCLA, 6:15 p.m., Saturday
No. 21 Oregon at No. 7 USC (-7.5), 10:15 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: Winless Stanford is still looking for the one win to shake a possible goose egg season. This weekend they are on the road up against a Washington team that has lost five straight. The Huskies have struggled against bad teams, posting a 4-11-2 mark ATS against a team with a losing record...8-1 Cal continues to climb the poll after its season-opening loss to Tennessee. The Golden Bears are 17-8-2 ATS in their last 27 road games and has taken care of Arizona on three straight occasions, covering all three…Oregon State continues to turn out wins after its season-altering victory against USC. Winners of four in a row and covering all four of those games, OSU will look to snap a three game losing streak to UCLA…Wazzou is on the road in Tempe to face 5-4 Arizona State. The Sun Devils are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record but the Cougars are the favorite and the ones laying the points ate 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings…USC's dominance at home will get its toughest test this season so far as Oregon visits So Cal. The Trojans have covered just three of their eight spreads this season.
Key Games: Rice at Tulsa (-14), 3 p.m., Saturday
Huston (-5) at Southern Miss, 3 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: East Carolina continues to pump out covers and with an 8-1 record ATS, they host 4-5 Marshall this Saturday. ECU has also done well in conference, covering seven of the last eight C-USA games…5-4 Southern Miss is on the road to face 3-6 Tulane. The Golden Eagles have won the last three in this series while the Green Wave are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record…After suffering its first conference loss of the season, Tulsa is at home against a pesky Rice team…. Armed with a fleet-footed quarterback, Rice is 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on turf. The favorite, however, is 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings…Houston remains a juggernaut behind Kevin Kolb and his 22 touchdown passes. SMU is 8-1 ATS in their last nine conference games…Miserable 2-7 UCF and 1-8 Memphis meet this Saturday night. Neither one can stop opponents, allowing over 30 a contest. The two have split their only two meetings.
Key Games: TCU (-7.5) at New Mexico, 5:30 p.m., Saturday
UNLV at San Diego State (-7.5), 9 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: This Thursday the Mountain West schedule gets underway when Wyoming visits offensive power BYU. The Cougars have been racking up points on the scoreboard, averaging over 34 this season. BYU is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 MWC games and have covered 14 of their last 17…Reigning MWC champs TCU is holding steady at 6-2 but are 4-3 ATS this season. The Lobos are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games…UNLV and San Diego State have combined for 2 wins between the 15 they've played. The Rebels are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games and are winless on the road this year at 0-5.