Doc's College Football Insider: Week 6
by Drew Mangione and Jordan Adams - 10/04/2006
Who's injured? Who's streaking? Who has the advantage in this weekend's games? What tips and trends are out there that could sway your plays? Here's an underground look at what's going down in the World of College Football:
Key Games: No. 17 Florida State (-10.5) at North Carolina State, 7:30 p.m., Thursday
No. 15 Clemson (-16.5) at Wake Forest, noon, Saturday
Maryland at No. 18 Georgia Tech (-13.5), 3:30 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: Clemson's senior wide receiver Chansi Stuckey and his 25 catches for 331 yards and 3 TDs will be sidelined this week and possibly four more after breaking his foot on a cut in last week's 51-0 victory over Louisiana Tech. As an underdog each time, Wake Forest is 3-0 ATS over the last three years against Clemson, including SU wins in 2003 and 2005…N.C. State is 4-0 ATS in its last four as an underdog of 10.5 or more, which includes two match-ups with the Seminoles: last year's straight up win and a 6-point loss in '03. Both teams are coming off a bye, but a knee injury to starting freshman cornerback Tony Carter will still keep him out this game and possibly next week…Miami running back Tyrone Moss, who had his surgically repaired left knee checked out, is questionable for Saturday's game against North Carolina. Coach Larry Coker said he kept last year's starter out for the Houston game because of the knee, but now true freshman Javarris James appears to have won the slot with 148 yards. Charlie Jones is second on the depth chart with Derron Thomas and his 9.4 yards per carry in the third slot…The under is 4-0 since 2001 when Georgia Tech and Maryland play.
Key Games: No. 8 Louisville (-33) at Middle Tennessee State, 8 p.m., Friday
Pittsburgh (-7) at Syracuse, noon, Saturday
Conference Notes: Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, who was injured in the team's win over Miami, is doing better and could return soon. The cast has been removed from his injured thumb…After 11 consecutive SU losses for Syracuse, the team has won three on the field and carried an ATS streak to seven. After getting sacked more than 30 times in his first two seasons behind center for Pittsburgh, Quarterback Tyler Palko has been taken down behind the line just three times this year. The Panthers line will be tested this week by Syracuse, which leads the nation with 25 sacks.
Key Games: No. 4 West Virginia (-24) at Mississippi State, 2:30 p.m. Saturday
No. 9 LSU (-1) at No. 5 Florida, 3:30 p.m., Saturday
No. 13 Tennessee (-2) at No. 10 Georgia, 7:45 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: The Mississippi State Bulldogs' defense, which was torched for 446 total yards and 48 points by LSU last week, will not have defensive tackle Deljuan Robinson for this week's game against the Mountaineers and running back Steve Slaton, who is looking to bounce back from his 80-yard performance in a 27-10 win over East Carolina…Freshman wide receiver Percy Harvin, who had seven catches for 132 yards and a TD before sitting out most of the last two games with a left high ankle sprain, will play and coach Urban Meyer said he should be close to 100 percent, which is more than can be said for running back DeShawn Wynn, who has emerged as the team's starter and leading rusher. Wynn is questionable with an injured knee, though doctors said an MRI done Sunday showed no tear…Auburn center Joe Cope will miss 4-6 weeks with a sprained knee suffered in the team's 24-17 win over South Carolina…The Georgia Bulldogs will have quarterback Joe Tereshinski back against the Vols. Coach Mark Richt is confident the senior's ankle will be ready, but said Matthew Stafford is his No. 2.
Key Games: Louisiana Tech at No. 20 Boise State
(-35.5), 8 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: The over is 3-0 in the last three Idaho/New Mexico State showdowns with each team scoring more than 30 in each contest. The total for this week is 57. Idaho (+1) has won the last four ATS (2-2 SU)…After getting banged up in last week's loss to Clemson, Louisiana Tech's starting offensive tackles Tyler Miller and Ryan Considine have been upgraded to probable for Saturday's game against Boise State. The Broncos have won 33-of-34 conference games, including 21 at home since joining the WAC in 2001. The Bulldogs have lost three straight ATS as an underdog of more than 10.5 points.
Key Games: No. 13 Oklahoma at No.7 Texas (-5.5), 3:30 p.m., Saturday
Oklahoma State (-2) at Kansas State, 7:00 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: The annual Red River Shootout takes center stage in Dallas this Saturday. Texas won big last year, but prior to 2005 the Sooners took the last five…Two of the improving Big 12 programs collide in Manhattan when Oklahoma State visits first year head coach Ron Prince and Kansas State. The Cowboys are scoring 40 a game, but the Wildcats are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games…Undefeated Missouri heads to Lubbock to deal with Mike Leach's high-powered passing attack. Each team should get its fair share of points with two big arms in Mizzou's Chase Daniels and Tech's Graham Harrell…Fresh off a scare at home from Kansas, Nebraska is on the road against Iowa State. The Cornhuskers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings head-to-head…Upstart Texas A&M needs to continue its hot start to keep head coach Dennis Franchione on board. The Aggies are on the road for the first time in 2006 but have won each of its four meetings with Kansas since 1998.
Key Games: Purdue at No. 19 Iowa (-11), 12:05 p.m., Saturday
Michigan State at No.6 Michigan (-15.5), 4:30 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: Penn State looks for back-to-back wins for the first time this year. The Nittany Lions are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Big Ten games…Yet to lose ATS, Wisconsin hosts Northwestern this Saturday. The Badgers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home…At home after its big upset win on the road against Michigan State, Illinois gets a struggling Indiana team. The Hoosiers got drubbed 52-17 in Wisconsin last weekend and are 11-28-3 ATS in their last 42 games…Iowa looks to rebound after getting dominated at home to the No. 1 Buckeyes last Saturday night. Despite its 4-1 record, Iowa is 0-4 ATS so far this year…The Spartans yearly downfall has begun. Now they get No. 6 Michigan in the Big House. The Wolverines have won the last four meetings, but are 2-2 ATS in those games.
Key Games: Washington at No. 2 USC (-20.5), 3:30 p.m., Saturday
No. 11 Oregon at No. 17 California (-5), 8:00 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: Stanford is quite possibly the worst team in college football. 0-5 both in the record books and ATS, the Cardinal are allowing over 37 points per game. That is not a good stat knowing you're facing Brady Quinn and the Irish on the road this week. However, Notre Dame is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games…An interesting match-up takes place in Los Angeles when a very underrated Huskies team plays the Trojans. USC has struggled to finish ball games and are 3-7 ATS against teams with winning records…Arizona is in Westwood to play 3-1 UCLA. The Bruins are 8-3 ATS in their last eleven October games, but must atone for last year's game when Arizona gave UCLA its first loss, 52-14, no less…Washington State gave USC all it could handle last weekend and now it is on the road against Pac-10 middle man Oregon State. The teams have split their last eight meetings, but the one standout is the over for Wazzou, hitting 10 of their last 11 night games.
Key Games: Central Florida at Marshall (-3.5), 7:30 p.m., Wednesday
Memphis at UAB (-6), 7:00 p.m., Saturday
Conference Notes: Week six's conference slate get kicked off this Wednesday as Marshall hosts UCF. Off to a 1-3 start, Central Florida does not look close to last year's form. The Golden Knights are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 road games…One-win programs Rice and Tulane face off, looking to send each other to the bottom of C-USA. Rice has won the last three meetings and are 3-2 ATS this year despite its 1-4 mark…East Carolina plays hosts out of conference as Virginia comes to town. The Pirates are 4-0 ATS this year, but the Cavs are 7-2 ATS against teams with a losing record…Memphis is desperate for a win while UAB can move to .500 overall and continue its stay in first place in the East division of Conference USA. The Blazers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as the favorite. The under is 8-0 in as many games for UAB…Houston stays out of conference and host UL Lafayette after losing to Miami on the road last Saturday. The Cougars are 4-1 and 3-1 ATS this year and have not lost in five career meetings with the Cajuns.
Key Games: TCU at Utah (-3), 9:00 p.m., Thursday
UNLV at Colorado State (-15.5), 5:30 p.m. Sunday
Conference Notes: The biggest game in the Mountain West takes place in Utah when the Utes are home to face newly blemished TCU. The Horned Frogs lost last week to BYU and ended their run at top with the nation's longest winning streak. Utah, in its own right, looked even worse against Boise State at home. Both look to rebound. TCU won last year and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games…San Diego State is still in search of its first win this year and visits BYU fresh off their impressive win in TCU last week. The Aztecs are also 0-4 ATS in '06 while BYU has won eight of the last ten meetings…Colorado State is coming of perhaps its best win in some time. Sticking it to Fresno State on the road, the Rams now are back home to play 1-3 UNLV. The Rebels are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games…Wyoming is at New Mexico in a match-up of struggling MWC teams. The Lobos have won the last six meetings and are 12-5 ATS against a team with a losing record.