Top NFL Totals Predictions For Week 4
by Gary Patrick Garry - 09/27/2007
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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
(Courtesy of Bookmaker)
The J-E-T-S Jets have Chad Pennington back at the helm and they were clicking on all cylinders last week when they beat Miami, 31-28, and rewarded the over bettors in the process. Pennington has the second-best quarterback rating in the league at 121.4, and he is going to face a banged-up Buffalo Bills defense when the Jets visit Buffalo on Sunday.
Online sportsbooks like JustBet, Superbook and Betonline have made playing winning football selections more convenient, and being able to follow the games on the Internet makes it more fun to wager on the sides and totals of games that aren't on television. It's always key to look for the best value when betting on the NFL regardless of whether or not it's a "sexy" matchup, and the Jets/Bills tilt certainly isn't a marquee affair. But it may be a good place to find a winning totals bet.
The Jets have gone over the total in two of their three games and the other game was a push. They have their QB back and playing well, and the Bills defense is plagued by injury with three starters out for the year. On the other side of the ball, the Jets defense has allowed 86 points over the three games they've played.
Bills games are averaging 39.7 points so far this year, despite the fact that they have managed just 24 total points over three games.
In spite of the Bills suspect offense, their defensive injuries coupled with the low number leads us to shade the total over 37 in this spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals
The Steelers have been tough to stop offensively this year, averaging 32.3 points a game. I noticed here on Doc's free betting line odds page that the total was actually 42 at 5Dimes Sportsbook. Bodog, BetUS, and Bookmaker have the total line at 41.5 at the time of this writing.
The Arizona offense is averaging 21 points a game and 352 yards of total offense, and their defense has been allowing 22 points a game. NFL totals handicappers are well aware that the Cardinals' games have rewarded the over bettor in eight of their last nine games. Both teams have gone over the total in two of their three games to date this year, and I don't see any reason why this game won't go over the total as well.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
(Courtesy of 5Dimes)
I was sitting in a Las Vegas sports bar last Sunday night with a race and sports book supervisor discussing the total for this game. After the Eagles offensive outburst against the Lions, and the way that the Lions moved the ball against the Eagles, you'd have to hang a pretty high total for this game. The bartender, a Giants fan, insisted that anything in the 40s was way too low.
The New York secondary is not healthy. They are allowing 266 yards per game through the air and that has to make Donovan McNabb's mouth water. The Giants are allowing 32.3 points a game, and it won't get any easier for them against a resurgent Philadelphia contingent.
The Giants have moved the ball well offensively, averaging 359 total yards per game. Eli Manning and company have done their part to provide winning bets to the over players by scoring 24 points per game. In fact, the last four meetings between these two teams have provided winning totals picks to the over bettors.
This game figures to be a shootout. I'll take the over.