Oscars Predictions - Academy Awards Betting Odds
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 12/1/2010
A lot will happen between now and Sunday, Feb 27 when the 83rd Academy Awards (aka the Oscars) are given out. The finalists have not been announced yet and the publicity machines for movies, directors and actors and actresses have not begun yet, so there is still some guesswork to be done in trying to figure out who will take home the Oscars in three months.
A week before the awards ceremony most of the winners are a foregone conclusion and the Oscars odds show that by drastically shifting towards the favorites. But three months before the presentations, most of the categories look wide open and no one is even quite sure who will be nominated. In other words, if you are going to make money wagering on the Academy Awards, you have to do it in December.
Upsets are rare in awards shows. This is not the Western Athletic Conference. The key to a profitable night is doing your homework now and trying your best to pick winners as soon as possible. That may seem like an overwhelming challenge considering some movies have not even been released yet and that most sportsbooks offering odds have up to 20 movies in each category. On Sportsbook.com there are 20 films, 20 directors and 15 actors you can wager on to win each category. There are no odds posted as of yet for Best Actress, an award that many think is a lock for Natalie Portman in her performance in “Black Swan.”
Here is a breakdown of the other three most popular categories with some Oscars predictions and Academy Awards betting odds.
The Kings Speech +200
The Social Network +350
Black Swan +800
True Grit +800
127 Hours +1000
The Fighter +2500
Winters Bone +2500
“The Kings Speech” is getting plenty of attention, especially with a royal wedding approaching and massive Oscar buzz for Colin Firth’s performance. However, it has been “The Social Network” that has won over critics and audiences. The film about the rise of Facebook could very well end up becoming the favorite as March draws closer. Steer clear of “Inception,” a psychological thriller that the Academy tends to avoid, especially after a ending that left many people guessing. “Black Swan” and “True Grit” are favorites much like “The Kings Speech” is, because of stellar acting performances with Portman in “Black Swan” and Jeff Bridges in “True Grit.” But those performances alone will not be enough to win Best Picture. “The Fighter” is starting to gain some buzz with its upcoming release. Keep an eye to watch how the odds change on that film that depicts the life and career of boxer “Irish” Micky Ward.
Colin Firth (The Kings Speech) +100
Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network) +400
James Franco (127 Hours) +500
Robert Duvall (Get Low) +650)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit) +700
Javier Bardem (Biutiful) +1200
Jake Gyllenhaal (Love and Other Drugs) +2500
Leonardo DiCaprio (Inception) +2500
Most years Colin Firth would be a runaway favorite to win this award, and he may still end up being that. However, this year there are so many quality performances to choose from. You can rule out Jesse Eisenberg as a legitimate nominee; his odds are only what they are because of the success of the movie. This award is Firth’s to lose, but there are bigger names that came up with big-time performances this year. The most notable of those was James Franco, who will be hosting the awards with Anne Hathaway and Robert Duvall. He put together a tour de force performance in “Get Low,” an overlooked movie directed by the Joel and Ethan Coen. At +1200 Javier Bardem is almost impossible to pass up right now. His performance in “Biutiful” had critics raving, and with a little more publicity from the movie it is not hard imagining Bardem shooting up to a favorite among with Firth, Franco, Duvall and Bridges.
David Fincher (The Social Network) +175
Danny Boyle (127 Hours) +350
Christopher Nolan (Inception) +400
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan) +550
Tom Hooper (The Kings Speech) +650
Martin Scorsese (Shutter Island) +2000
Aaron Schneider (Get Low) +2500
“Inception” was a marvelous movie and easily the most discussed movie of the year, and this is where it should get honored. There were no real stellar acting performances or a conventional enough plot line to land a serious consideration for Best Picture, but the direction of Christopher Nolan was second to none this season. He should get the nod over David Fincher. The biggest challenge to Nolan will come from Darren Aronofsky, the director of “Black Swan,” a psychological thriller featuring Portman and Mila Kunis.
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