College Football Power Rankings: the Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 10/26/2011
The Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings is my own unique twist on the obsessive ranking systems that have dominated the sport for nearly a century. The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings; a rating of the 15 teams that I think hold the most value in college football betting at the moment and it is a reflection of past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread in college football betting.
So just because my No. 1 ranked team goes out an blows out an opponent, that doesn’t strengthen their hold on the top slot. If anything, blowouts hurt value because the general betting public will then start to overestimate a team’s ability. However, teams that quietly go about their business grinding out wins and covering spreads will see their stock – and their spot in the Ferringo 15 as well -- steadily rise as the season progresses.
The Ferringo 15 has been exceptional over the past four years at pinpointing undervalued teams according to their college football odds. If you were to have bet every team in the Ferringo 15 the week that they appear in my college football power rankings then you would have hit over 58 percent of your wagers for a four-year period.
Here is my Week 9 Ferringo 15 College Football Power Rankings. (As always, all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Stanford (7-0) – I suppose I’m the idiot for not having Stanford as the Top Dog in the F-15 all season long. I mean, all they have done is go 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games and put together a sensational 12-0-1 ATS rush dating back to last year. Stanford has won and covered in three of four against the Trojans, including last year’s 37-35 home win in which the Trojans took the cash as 10-point dogs. I know this: beating Notre Dame is a lot easier than beating Stanford, so I don’t know if I’m buying into USC against this buzz saw simply based on last week’s performance.
2. Clemson (7-1) – Watching Clemson each week is like watching an episode of South Park: everyone is just waiting to see how Kenny dies. In this instance, everyone is waiting for the Tigers to “pull a Clemson” and melt down. They are facing a very reasonable line this week (3.5) and the road team is 9-4 ATS in the Georgia Tech series. But the underdog is also 11-3 ATS in these matchups and Tech has been Clemson’s nemesis, taking four of five in a series where five of eight games have been decided by five points or less.
3. Kansas State (6-1) – Barring a total collapse, if anyone other than Bill Snyder wins Coach of the Year it will be a travesty. This is going to be a turning point, one way or another, for the Wildcats here. If they can win, or even hang around, in this game then I think that the betting public will finally have bought into this club. If they get blown out then it is going to be interesting to see how they fare against the meat of their schedule. Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas are on deck after the Sooners come to town. We are going to find out very quickly if this team is for real or not.
4. Oklahoma State (6-1) –I don’t know if I can remember such a quietly lethal, kind of still under-the-radar Top 4 team in recent years. I mean, who is the last person you heard talk about Oklahoma State winning the national title? Their talent is equal to Oklahoma’s, but the Cowboys are getting absurdly better value. There are some injuries starting to crop up. But as long as Weeden-to-Blackmon is still an option then these guys are still a great play at the window. The favorite is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings with Baylor and the Cowboys have covered six straight in Stillwater against the Bears.
5. Alabama (7-1) –The Machine rolls on. I bet you thought, for about 20 minutes, that maybe, just maybe, Tennessee could throw a monkey wrench in Alabama’s season last week. Nope. We now get two weeks of hype leading up to The Game of the Year against LSU.
6. Wisconsin (5-1-1) – I am not going to kill the Badgers for losing in Lansing last week. No, when you look at the Wisconsin resume they haven’t played anyone and were probably overrated in the rankings. But just because they hadn’t played anyone doesn’t mean that this isn’t still the best team in the Big Ten, which I still believe they are. The trouble this week is going to be bouncing back from the fact that their BCS Title dreams are dead. Wisconsin is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 overall and 8-1 ATS in their last nine Big Ten games. However, the underdog is 8-3 ATS in this series and Ohio State has had two weeks to prep for this one.
7. Temple(6-2) –It is going to be a long two weeks for the Owls, who blew that game at Bowling Green last week. But after their last loss they came out and laid a 42-0 ass kicking on Ball State. I am not sure if they will do the same this week to the No. 2 team in the MAC East, Ohio, but I do know I wouldn’t want to mess with this team right now. The Owls will be on national TV on Tuesday. A win there can only hurt their value at the window.
8. Rutgers (5-1-1) –I don’t think that the Scarlet Knights should have earned a ‘push’ against lowly Louisville last week (and a lot of bettors had them at +1.5 and lost), but that is just kind of how the season has gone for Rutgers this year. This week the Knights are a healthy home dog against one of the most overrated teams in the nation (West Virginia), and they are a perfect 4-0 so far this season in this scenario. That may make them an active dog. But then again, Rutgers is just 2-5 ATS as a home dog and they have lost 10 straight to the Mountaineers.
9. UTEP (6-1) –This is just an example of “Bad Team That Is Constantly Getting Too Many Points.” UTEP managed to hang around with Conference USA heavy hitters Houston and SMU, but they had situational edges in both of those games. They may have one again this week. The Miners catch Southern Miss off a peak performance against SMU at home next week and before a huge revenge game on the road at East Carolina next week. I think the back door will be wide open in this game, but I’m not sure if UTEP has enough to get in it.
10. Washington (5-2) –Nothing like a savage beating at the hands of the Pac-10’s top team to put things in perspective for the Huskies. However, I don’t think that loss really hurt their value. Instead, I think that right now Washington is still a good play the rest of the year because the image of them getting pasted is going to linger. Speaking of pasted, they were rushed, 44-14, in Tucson last year against Arizona. The Wildcats are 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the favorite is just 2-11 ATS in the UW-UA series.
11. LSU (6-2) – Kudos to the SEC schedule makers for having the good sense to give both Alabama and LSU a bye week heading into their titanic clash. The early release line on this game has the Tigers as a 4.5-point underdog in Tuscaloosa. (And how rare is it that a line is posted for a game TWO WEEKS early? Think this is a Big One?)
12. Michigan (5-2) –Motivationally speaking, this has to be one of Michigan’s toughest games of the year. They are two-touchdown favorites against a sagging Purdue program. That is tough enough to get up for. But knowing what is on the other side of this game – at Iowa, at Illinois, Wisconsin and Ohio State – will make it even tougher for Brady Hoke to keep his team’s attention. Michigan is just 4-22 ATS in its last 26 conference games and just 7-21 ATS against a team with a winning record. But then again, those were Rich Rodriguez numbers.
13. San Jose State (5-2) –This team is just kind of hanging out in the WAC. But they keep getting underestimated by the books and bettors, who have been used to SJSU ineptitude for too many years now. This team has won three of four and their last two losses were respectable ones at BYU and against Nevada. The Spartans have covered three straight but have a tough one this week against fellow Sneaky ATS Team, Louisiana Tech. We will see how effectively the Spartans prepared over the bye.
14. Arkansas State (6-1) –You are really taking your life in your own hands any time you bet in the Sun Belt, aren’t you? I mean, would anyone really be that stunned if North Texas actually beat ASU this week as a 17-point underdog? I sure as hell wouldn’t. The last four games in this series have been determined by an average of just 4.5 points, and since Oct. 1 Sun Belt underdogs are a ravenous 12-6 ATS in all games.
15. Cincinnati (5-2) –I still think that this is the best team in the Big East and that the Bearcats are in a good position to make a run. They outplayed South Florida by more than the final score indicated, and that last-second win could be a big momentum builder through the rest of the year.
Others Receiving Votes: Houston (5-2), Michigan State (5-2), Texas Tech (5-2)
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He has banked $1,400 in football profit last since late September and is lining up another big college football weekend. He nailed his 6-Unit Game of the Month last week and will have a 5-Unit Play on the card this week. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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