NFL Picks: Jets at Patriots Predictions and Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews - 10/5/2011
Have the boisterous New York Jets (2-2) been humbled? Usually in the week leading up to facing the Patriots, all you hear is plenty of hot air coming from Rex Ryan and Co. That’s the type of atmosphere Rex Ryan has created in New York. But off back-to-back losses, it’s rather quiet in New York right now – other than former Jets legend Joe Namath, that is.
New England (3-1), meanwhile, couldn’t be more different than the Jets. The Pats follow the quiet, professional lead of Coach Bill Belichick. But there still may not be a more entertaining current rivalry in the NFL than Jets-Patriots because the teams truly dislike each other, but they play rather different styles in trying to beat the other (unlike, say, Baltimore-Pittsburgh, which both play the same way, for the most part).
Of course, these teams met three times last year, with the final one coming 263 days ago (come Sunday) in the AFC Divisional Round. That was a 28-21 win in Foxborough for New York after each team won at home fairly convincingly against the other during the regular season.
Jets at Patriots Betting Storylines
New York has been pushed around the past two weeks, losing by 10 in Oakland and by 17 in Baltimore, allowing 34 points in each game. The Jets remain very good against the pass on defense, but they are in the bottom five in rushing yards allowed per game at 130.5. Last week, the Jets turned the ball over four times and the Ravens scored a touchdown on three of them. Mark Sanchez was terrible against Baltimore, going 11-of-35 for 119 yards with a pick and three lost fumbles. The good news for Sanchez is that he will get back All-Pro center Nick Mangold this week. He hasn’t played since Week 2 with a high ankle sprain and was clearly missed last week as Sanchez was under intense pressure all day.
The offensive machine that is New England continued last week, a 31-19 win over the same Oakland team that ran all over the Jets two weeks ago. The Pats have scored at least 31 points in every game this year and are No. 1 in passing behind Tom Brady. Wes Welker continued his huge season with nine catches for 158 yards (he now has 40 for 616 on the year; on pace for 2,400 yards) and a score. I will be stunned if Darrelle Revis isn’t on Welker on Sunday, although he usually isn’t when these teams play because Revis generally doesn’t guard slot receivers like Welker. The Pats have produced 2,030 total yards, the best four-game start since the merger in 1970.
That New England defense, last in the league against the pass, allowed 504 total yards to the Raiders and lost star LB Jerod Mayo to a knee injury that likely will keep him out a month. New England has allowed 1,910 total yards, the worst four-game total since the merger.
Brady has now thrown for two TD passes in an NFL-record-tying 13 straight games and the Pats have scored at least 30 in 12 straight during the regular season (two shy of NFL record). By the way, the Patriots will wear throwback uniforms that replicate the ones worn by the 1985 team this week. New England is 16-1 at home in October since 2003.
Jets at Patriots Betting Odds and Trends
New England opened as a 9.5-point favorite with the total at 49.5, according to NFL odds. The Pats are 3-1 ATS this year and 1-0 ATS at home. The ‘over’ has hit in three of four New England games. New York is 1-3 ATS this year and 0-2 ATS on the road. The ‘over’ has hit in three of four Jets games.
Jets are 6-2 ATS in their past eight vs. AFC East foes. Pats have covered five of past seven vs. the division. The ‘over’ is 9-1 in Jets’ past 10 as a dog. The ‘over’ is 8-0 in Pats’ past eight as a favorite of between 3.5-10 points. The ‘over’ is 3-0-1 in the past four meetings.
NFL Picks: Jets at Patriots Betting Predictions
It’s ‘put up or shut up’ time already for Ryan’s Jets. If they fall to 2-3 and already two games behind New England in the division – plus down obviously a head-to-head tiebreaker -- then the Jets can forget about winning the AFC East. And the playoffs could be in jeopardy with teams like Buffalo, Tennessee, Houston and Oakland looking improved to go with the normal playoff powers like San Diego, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Still, I can’t see the Jets winning this game, but I do think it’s very close. So take New York and the points. And the’ over’ because that Jets defense doesn’t look right and New England’s just isn’t very good.
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