NFL Totals Betting: Week 10 Over and Under Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 11/10/2011
For the second week in a row points were a bit hard to come by as nine of the 14 games in Week 9 of the NFL regular season stayed ‘under’ the total. For the ninth straight week we came out on the plus side of our top plays; cashing in on two of three picks. This raised our year-to-date record to 18-9.
The oddsmakers will continue to do their best to sharpen the NFL lines, making it a bit tougher to mine out the value. However, if you know where and how to look, there are always a few ‘bad lines out there that you can capitalize on.
The following are this week’s top three plays on for NFL totals betting, with odds provided by BetOnline.
Washington Redskins vs. Miami Dolphins
The Redskins 3-1 start is just a distant memory as they have returned to reality with four straight losses. In those games, Washington has only managed to score a total of 44 points. The defense continues to try and do its part by holding opponents to an average of just 19.8 points per game.
Miami’s first win of the season was an impressive 31-3 rout of Kansas City last Sunday in which it scored almost double its season average of 17.2 points a game. Matt Moore had a huge game with 244 yards passing and three touchdowns, but at this point you have to view this as a fluke given his past performances.
The total line opened at 37.5 and has held steady through the week. Weather should not be a factor, but inept offenses should. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the Redskins last seven games overall and in four of their last five games on the road. The total has stayed ‘under’ in the Dolphins last seven games overall.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Tim Tebow experiment in Denver has turned in mix results with the team scoring a paltry 10 points in a loss to Detroit one week followed by a 38-point explosion the next. Overall the Broncos are averaging 21.4 points a game this season.
Kansas City has been just as inconsistent with an average of 25.3 points a game in a recent four-game winning streak followed by just three points in the ugly loss to Miami last week. One constant has been a Chiefs’ defense that has given-up 20 or more points in six of their first eight games.
This line for this game opened at 42.5 and has slid down to 41, which is just what we want to see. Rain could be a moderate factor on Sunday, but it should not really impact the final score. The total in this series has gone ‘over’ in six of the last eight meetings overall and in eight of the last 10 games played in Kansas City.
New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
The Patriots are mired in a rare two-game losing streak. However, one thing has remained constant this season with this team whether it wins or losses: the offense led by Tom Brady is going to score its fair share of points and New England’s defense will give up a ton of yards, which often results in a large number of points for its opponents as well.
New York has been able to turn its season around with three straight wins behind a much stingier defense. Even when Rex Ryan’s bunch has been playing at a high level, it has given up an average of 28.2 points to New England in the last five meetings.
The line opened at 48 and has slipped to 47, which is the right direction. The weather at MetLife Stadium is expected to be perfect for early November, which should provide a fast track for both teams. The total has gone ‘over’ in five of the Patriots last five games against the AFC East and in seven of the Jets last 10 games in the division. It has also gone ‘over’ in four of the last five meetings between the two.
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