NFL Week 9 Player Props and Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 11/4/2011
Let’s do a quick recap of some Week 8 NFL props we recommended before we look at Week 9.
First off, the only Week 8-specific prop I looked at was on Dallas rookie running back DeMarco Murray, coming off a franchise-record 253 yards rushing, and his yardage total and yards per carry average last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Murray’s ‘over/under’ yards was 85.5 and yards-per-carry was 5.0 against Philly. I said take the ‘under’ on both. Murray finished with nine carries (a shockingly low total) and 74 yards. So we hit one and lost one. But on value we came out ahead because the ‘over’ yards and under ypc were both favorites.
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I also recommended taking the ‘yes’ on whether a team would go 0-16 this year. Well, we lost one of the trio when St. Louis shocked the Saints in Week 8. But I predicted the Rams would win at least a few anyways because of their wretched division. We still have the Dolphins and Colts on that one. Neither should win this week, although both have very winnable games in Week 10.
I also mentioned taking the ‘yes’ option on whether there would be another game without a TD this season. There weren’t any in Week 8, but there are a few good chances this week for it to happen: San Francisco-Washington, Miami-Kansas City, Cincinnati-Tennessee and Pittsburgh-Baltimore (the first three because the offenses stink; the latter because the defenses are so good).
Anyways, looking at some Week 9 Bodog specials, let’s start with a few on the San Diego Chargers, who managed to gag away Monday night’s game in Kansas City when Philip Rivers couldn’t handle a snap with the Bolts in position to kick the winning field goal in the final minute, and the Chiefs recovered.
Rivers leads the NFL with 14 giveaways this season, including a league-high 11 interceptions. There’s a prop on Rivers’ ‘over/under’ turnovers this week at 1.5, with both at 1.5 (and both at -115). Considering Rivers has multiple interceptions in five of seven games this year and faces a Packers team that is tied for second in the NFL with 13 picks, the ‘over’ seems a no-brainer. Green Bay has also forced five fumbles, which is tied for 21st.
You can also bet on whether Norv Turner is the coach of San Diego in Game 1 of the 2012 season, with ‘yes’ at -200 and ‘no’ at +150. I love ‘no’ here. I realize the Chargers have won 16 of their past 18 games from Nov. 1 on, but they play seven of their final nine games this season against teams with winning records: this week vs. Green Bay, two vs. Oakland, at Chicago, vs. Buffalo, vs. Baltimore and at Detroit. If the Bolts miss the playoffs for a second straight year, Turner is a goner. In fact, I would argue that he’s a goner if they don’t reach the AFC title game.
San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore is making a play for NFL MVP, although we all know Aaron Rodgers will win it. Gore has rushed for at least 125 yards and one score in the past four games, becoming only the fifth player to do that since 1970. He can tie the record of five straight this week at Washington. The ‘no’ option on Gore doing it against the Skins is -300, with yes at +200. The previous four teams Gore went against, Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa Bay and Philly, all currently rank No. 18 or worse in rush defense. Conveniently enough, so does Washington at No. 21 in allowing 120.4 ypg. Still, you have to go no here. Gore has been averaging some crazy yards-per-carry averages and the Redskins will stack the box and dare Alex Smith to beat them.
Finally, there’s a prop on whether the New England Patriots will score 30 points AND Tom Brady will throw for 300 yards this week. ‘No’ is at -300 and ‘yes’ at +200. I like ‘yes’ here, with New England hosting the Giants.
The Pats had scored at least 30 in 13 straight regular-season games before getting only 20 two games ago vs. Dallas and 17 last week in Pittsburgh. Brady didn’t get to 300 in either game. The Giants are No. 13 in pass yards allowed per game (225.1) and No. 21 in points per game (23.4). New York has only given up 30 points or more once, but that was to lousy Seattle. Even the Cardinals put up 27 on the G-Men. The weather won’t be a factor Sunday, so take ‘yes’ on that prop.
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