Euro 2012 Elimination Round Odds and Betting Preview
by Trevor Whenham - 6/20/2012
The group stage of Euro 2012 is over and just eight teams remain with a shot for the championship. For the most part there aren’t many surprises. Portugal taking the spot most had penciled the Dutch into is a mild upset but far from a major shock, and any two teams could have come out of Group A. The other two groups went exactly to form.
As we get ready for the quarterfinals to run from June 21-24 here is a look at six things that stand out from a betting perspective (all Euro 2012 odds are from Bovada):
Spain couldn’t be happier with their draw
There probably isn’t much that Spain was going to be afraid of in this tournament — until the finals at least. The defending Euro and World Cup champions got a pretty generous road to the finals, though.
They start off with France. The French have obviously been very good recently, but they have been a long way from their best here, and their third game against Sweden was a disgusting effort — even if they ultimately didn’t need the win because Ukraine lost to England. Spain has no good reason not to be very confident heading into that game.
Next they face Portugal or Czech Republic. Portugal should be the opponent, but their efforts against Germany and Denmark made it hard to believe that they are at the level of the elite teams.
Anything can happen in a single elimination tournament, but Spain deserves to be what they are — strong favorites to reach the finals.
Germany should be even happier
Germany’s path is likely even easier than what Spain has — which explains why they are slight favorites to win it all (11/5 compared to 12/5 for Spain).
Greece got very lucky to be here after playing a bad Poland team to a draw, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that they can provide a real test for Germany unless the Germans have a really terrible day. The Germans are a gaudy -330 on the moneyline in that one with Greece at +900, so the oddsmakers are clear here.
That leaves a matchup with either Italy or England in the semis. Both teams are a huge step up in class from Greece, but both are vulnerable, too. England has the distractions of their recent coaching change and the after-effects to deal with, and Italy just doesn’t seem deep enough to scare anyone. Italy did play to a draw against Spain in their opener, but I credit that more to the complacency of Spain than the play of the Italians.
Germany has even fewer excuses than Spain when it comes to reaching the final. The tournament looked like it was headed for a chalky final before it started, and that seems to be even more of the case now.
Portugal and Italy are serious underlays at 7/1
Italy and Portugal have the next two lowest odds after the two favorites at 7/1. I really don’t like the thought of betting on either of them.
I frankly don’t think Italy will even win their first game against England, but if they do they would have little hope against Germany. Portugal should win their opener, but is in deep against Spain.
I guess I would give Portugal the nod if I had to choose either of these teams, but I just don’t think there is any value in either.
The best of the longshots may be England at 15/2
I don’t want to be repetitive, but I just don’t see a lot of logic in betting against the two favorites at this point. If I did want to, though, I guess I would pick England over any other team.
I really like the spark they played with in their third game, and they clearly enjoyed having Wayne Rooney back in the lineup after his suspension — and he was ready to play. They have all sorts of distractions to deal with, but they are talented and could catch fire and find a way to win the three games they need to win.
I’d like them a lot better at about 12/1, but they aren’t a terrible bet where they are at.
Mario Gomez is a no-brainer as top scorer
You can get 13/8 odds that the German striker will lead the tournament in scoring. That’s a very sound bet. Gomez leads the tournament with three goals already and has a whole lot of confidence. His team is well positioned to play three more games, and at least two of them could be wide-open affairs. It is certainly his to lose.
Germany will win it all
Germany faced a tough test in their group of stage, and they faced it like pros. They haven’t faltered, and they were very strong against their two strongest opponents. Therefore, it is hard to doubt them at this point.
Spain is dangerous, but Germany just seems hungrier and more determined and focused at this point.
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