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World Cup Champion Expert Picks for Favorites with Odds and Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 6/10/2026

World Cup champion expert picks for favorites Lamine Yamal Spain

The expanded 48-team World Cup format means there are even more countries vying to lift football’s ultimate prize, but it would be a real shock to see anyone other than a handful of nations win the 2026 World Cup. Only eight countries have ever won the World Cup, and six of them are among the favorites this year. Six previous winners are joined by Portugal to round out the seven teams with +1300 odds or shorter. 

While it will almost certainly be one of these nations, selecting the winner is still no easy task. Every country has World Cup odds of +450 or longer, which means there is still plenty of money to be made. Let’s take a look at the seven World Cup favorites, and see where we can find value with the tournament now days away from getting underway. 

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Spain: +450

Spain enters the 2026 World Cup as the outright favorites at +450 odds. They have a trio of the best goalkeepers in the world, a rock-solid backline, and no shortage of attacking talent on the other end of the field. Lamine Yamal is still just 18 years old, but is already one of the best attackers in the world. He has had a very successful season with FC Barcelona, and will look to link up with Mikel Oyarzabal up front. A healthy Spanish side has strong attacking options, but there are now injury concerns around Yamal. Arguably, Spain’s best player, if Yamal is not 100% healthy heading into the knockout rounds, Spain’s ceiling drops dramatically. 

In the midfield, Rodri and Fabian Ruiz will be used in a double pivot, allowing Pedri to drift wide in the attacking phase of play. Rodri is a serial winner with Manchester City and has been the best defensive midfielder of the 2020s, while Fabian Ruiz played a key role in back-to-back Champions Leagues for Paris Saint-Germain. 

While Spain is certainly a contender at the World Cup, they don’t have enough difference-makers in front of goal to justify a +450 price tag. They lack a true out-and-out striker and will instead ask Oyarzabal to drop deep and support the midfield. Their ability to dominate possession will keep them in control, but I worry there will not be enough end product for Spain to get ahead against the top nations. They are absolutely a contender, but not worth pulling the trigger at these short odds. 

Value Rating: 0/5

France: +500

France has reached the World Cup Final in back-to-back tournaments, winning in 2018 before falling short in 2022. Remarkably, this might be their best squad yet. In attack, Kylian Mbappe is seen as one of, if not the best, strikers in the world. On the flanks, Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele and Bayern Munich star Michael Olise give France the most dangerous front three at the World Cup. All three are incredibly rapid, and their individual abilities to beat defenders in one-on-one matchups are second to none. Any country would be lucky to have just one of these attackers, but France has the benefit of all three. 

At the back, France is anchored by Premier League winner William Saliba, who has emerged as one of the elite center-backs in the world. Who gets the starting nod among the other French defenders is still up in the air, but it is not for the lack of options. The top-end talent France has is comparable, but still slightly better, than that of the other nations. What really sets them apart is the depth they are bringing to North America. France has names like Bradley Barcola, Adrien Rabiot, and Rayan Cherki expected to start the tournament on the bench. They will still have a major role to play, and if there are any injuries along the way, France has the backups needed to plug the holes. The combination of superstar talent and depth makes France my pick to win the World Cup, and I have no complaints about +500 odds. 

Value Rating: 5/5

England: +700

England’s lengthy World Cup drought has been well documented. They haven’t won the World Cup since 1966 despite consistently operating the top domestic league in the world. Their English stars have fallen short time and time again in heartbreaking fashion, but they are now poised to face their demons and make a deep tournament run. Up front, Harry Kane won the European Golden Shoe for the continent’s top goalscorer with 36 goals, nine more than second-place Erling Haaland. He has no shortage of distributors behind him, as Bukayo Saka, Marcus Rashford, and Jude Bellingham are all capable of making an impact. Their attacking style is not the most pleasant to watch, but when combined with a consistent defense, it has produced positive results more often than not. 

A midfield of Bellingham and Declan Rice has no flaws, but there are still questions in England’s backline. John Stones is a veteran presence at 32 years old, but he will likely be beside Marc Guehi and Nico O’Reilly, both of whom are inexperienced. Jordan Pickford is now past his prime between the sticks, meaning England will need their midfield to drop back if they are to stay protected. This feels like a fair price for the Three Lions, but since they have the stronger overall squad compared to some of the other contenders, we will slot them in just above average in terms of value. 

Value Rating: 4/5 

Portugal: +850

One last dance. Cristiano Ronaldo has inspired the next generation of Portuguese superstars, and the 41-year-old now has one final opportunity to win football’s most prized possession. Portugal are the only top-7 nation without a World Cup trophy, but this represents their best chance yet. Ronaldo will have a role to play up front, and has continued to bag goals with Al Nassr in the Saudi League, but this Portuguese side is much more than him. Bruno Fernandes broke the Premier League assists record this year with 21 assists, and while nearly half of them came from set pieces, he is still incredibly instrumental. Portugal has a physical side that can win aerial battles in the box, so between Ronaldo’s and Fernandes’ dead-ball abilities, this team will never be out of any match. 

In the midfield, Portugal has a pair of superstars in Vitinha and Joao Neves. The Paris Saint-Germain duo have incredible chemistry, elite on-ball mechanics, and no shortage of energy in the middle of the park. An experienced backline combined with an energetic attack is a recipe for success, and Portugal will feel confident they have what it takes to make a deep run. However, we can’t go all-in purely based on their lack of previous success, making +850 a fair price heading into the tournament. 

Value Rating: 3/5 

Brazil: +850

Brazil is the most decorated country in World Cup history, with a long history of success. This year is expected to be no different, as the talent pipeline from Brazil is seemingly endless. Global superstar Neymar has been named to the squad, but how much of an impact he will have remains to be seen. That will leave the attacking duties on the shoulders of Gabriel Martinelli and Vinicius Junior, but I am not sure that will be enough in a very competitive tournament. The fast feet and flashy skill moves will be featured on highlight reels, but whether or not that will result in victories against deep-lying defenses still remains to be seen. 

For Brazil’s defense, their center-back partnership is the best in the world. End of story. Gabriel Magalhaes of Arsenal and Marquinhos of Paris Saint-Germain both reached the Champions League Final and were two of the most important members of their respective squads. They are just hitting their prime at the same time, giving Brazil an iron-clad defense with a solid pair of goalkeepers in Ederson and Alisson backing them up. While there is a lot to like about Brazil, I don’t see them winning the midfield battles often enough against the world’s top teams. Their defense will stay firm, but I’m calling for Brazil to find themselves on the wrong end of a penalty shootout somewhere in the middle of the knockout rounds. 

Value Rating: 2/5 

Argentina: +1000

The reigning World Cup champions will be looking to become the first team to win back-to-back tournaments since Brazil in 1958 and 1962, but it will not be easy with their current squad. Like many previous winners, Argentina has fallen into the trap of thinking that what worked four years ago will work again. Their squad features MLS stars like Lionel Messi and Rodrigo De Paul, who will end up getting minutes over promising youngsters. Their defensive line is all aging, while manager Lionel Scaloni won’t give Julian Alvarez and Lautaro Martinez enough minutes together. The talent is there for Argentina; they have proven that before, but expecting them to still keep pace with the other contenders is simply unrealistic. They lack the playmakers in midfield to feed their attackers, and will be exposed if they hope to play back-and-forth games against dangerous opponents. If it weren’t for the global star power of Lionel Messi, a realistic breakdown of this squad would have them well behind the other favorites. There is no value here. 

Value Rating: 0/5 

Germany: +1300

Germany rounds out the top-7 legitimate contenders, and they have a nice combination of experience and youth in their squad. At the back, Joshua Kimmich, Antonio Rudiger, and Jonathan Tah all have dozens of German caps, and will give solidity in the most important areas of the field. Manuel Neuer continues to stay ahead of Father Time, coming out of retirement to claim the starting spot in goal. 

The real excitement for Germany lies in midfield. Florian Wirtz and Jamal Musiala are two of the rising stars in Europe, and will announce themselves to the global stage in this tournament. Leon Goretzka and Aleksander Pavlovic will anchor the midfield, giving Germany’s front four enough support to venture into the attacking third. Kai Havertz is expected to start up front, and while he isn’t the flashiest striker, he has a knack for turning up in big games. Germany should be closer to +1000, and there are arguments that they are right among the favorites if things go their way. An easy group will set them up for success, making this +1400 price one that may not be around for long. 

Value Rating: 4/5

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