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2026 World Cup Soccer Group I Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 5/26/2026

World Cup soccer Group I predictions Ousmane Dembele France

The expanded World Cup format has taken away the classic ‘Group of Death’, but Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is still a difficult group to navigate heading into the tournament. France has reached the World Cup Final in back-to-back tournaments, winning in 2022, and are once again one of the outright favorites. Alongside them is Norway, who have Premier League Golden Boot winner Erling Haaland alongside Martin Odegaard, who captained Arsenal to their first Premier League title in 22 years. Senegal has proven to be a threat after reaching the knockout stages in 2022, while Iraq is simply happy to be included. This will be one of the most-viewed groups of the tournament, and also happens to be one of the best for handicapping. Here is the Group I breakdown with the best bets on how to attack this quartet of teams. 

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Odds to Win Group I:
France: -230

Norway: +270

Senegal: +800

Iraq: +6000

Odds to Qualify:
France: -2500

Norway: -500

Senegal: -200

Iraq: +300

France: 

France has been one of the most successful World Cup sides in recent history, winning two of the last seven World Cups, while also finishing second on two other occasions. Their roster is brimming with talent all over the pitch, making it hard to overlook France against anyone other than the very best players in the world. Up front, France has renowned superstar Kylian Mbappe alongside Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele. Rounding out the trio is Michael Olise, who has emerged as a serious talent at Bayern Munich. The trio of Mbappe, Dembele, and Olise is arguably the best attacking front three in the world, and France also has Rayan Cherki and Desire Doue potentially coming off the bench. In midfield, N’Golo Kante, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Adrien Rabiot anchor the starting XI, all of whom are capable of playing box-to-box roles in this squad. Their defense has the likes of William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano in the middle, as there are truly no weak links in the squad. This roster is dripping with talent both in the starting squad and on the bench. We aren’t talking about players who rise to the occasion at the international level. France is loaded with proven winners, some of the best players in the world, and a brilliant core, all entering their prime this year. France blows the rest of the group out of the water when it comes to proven talent. 

Norway:
Norway doesn’t have the same depth as France, but they have a pair of generational talents who can change the game in an instant. Martin Odegaard is a magician in midfield who finally tasted glory with Arsenal, and will be hoping to carry that success with him to the summer. His ability to effortlessly slice apart defenses is second to none, and he has an excellent target man up top to aim at. Erling Haaland has led the Premier League in goals in three consecutive seasons, scoring 76 goals in 96 matches with Manchester City. Few forwards are truly inevitable like Haaland is, and he will look to terrorize defenders in the group stage. However, the talent drop off after that is noticeable. They have a disciplined back line that will look to frustrate opponents, but feature players currently on the fringe of top-flight European football. Julian Ryerson is their biggest name in the back, but he is still miles behind the French defenders. It doesn’t get much better than Odegaard and Haaland, but if the rest of the Norway squad cannot rise to the occasion, Norway could find themselves falling short earlier than expected.

Senegal:

Senegal has come into previous World Cups as a Dark Horse, and they certainly fall into that category again in 2026. This is their third straight appearance at the biggest tournament in sports, and they reached the knockout stages in 2022 with wins over Ecuador and Qatar. The expanded format means they have a real shot at qualifying even if they finish third behind Norway and France, but this squad is capable of pulling off a potentially stunning upset. Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson are the household names up front, with Kalidou Koulibaly captaining the squad at the back. Sadio Mane is entering the twilight of his career, but is still very dangerous, while Jackson is a clinical finisher when the service is sent his way in the box. The biggest issue with Senegal is its lack of depth. Their starting XI will feature players who aren’t playing in the top-five European leagues, and even the ones who do are hardly game-changing superstars. They don’t have the rigidity needed in defense to withstand onslaughts, and lack the pace on the wings to effectively counterattack. They should be able to take care of business against Iraq, but expecting points off the top dogs is a stretch.

Iraq:
Iraq has qualified for its second-ever World Cup and its first since 1986 in Mexico. They were unable to register a point in that tournament and will once again be sizable underdogs in their North American return. Vastly experienced striker Aymen Hussein will look to inspire the next generation of Iraqi footballers, with Amir Al Ammari and Ali Jasim developing into talented prospects. While there is promise with this roster, the reality is that no Iraqi players would come close to cracking the starting XI of anyone else in this group. They conceded 14 goals in qualifying, one of the highest totals for 2026 World Cup participants, so grinding out 0-0 draws is unlikely. Crazier things have happened, but even a single point for Iraq would be seen as a huge success in this group. 

Group I Best Bets:
France is the overwhelming favorite to win this group, and while I am not in love with a -230 price, they are still the way to go. The combination of top-end talent and squad depth for France will prevent them from slipping up, as they will be too much for both Senegal and Norway. Assuming they take care of business against both Iraq and Senegal to open up the group stage, taking -230 odds on them to at least draw against Norway to close things out is a great price. Their goal difference should have them in a position where that is the scenario, and there is always the chance they wrap things up thanks to an upset elsewhere before that matchup takes place. The attacking trio of Mbappe, Dembele, and Olise will be must-watch football. 

For the second bet in this group, taking a stab at Senegal NOT to qualify at +160 odds is the way to go. There is no guarantee that a third-place finish will get Senegal into the knockout stages, especially if the mouth-watering talents of France and Norway have run up the score. Due to the scheduling, it is very likely that Senegal and Iraq square off in the group stage finale with both teams on 0 points. Senegal’s best players are past their prime, they have an incredibly shallow squad, and they are far from an automatic participant in the knockout stage.

Pick: France to win Group I -230

Top Pick: Senegal NOT to Qualify +160

Predicted Group I Table:
France: 9 Points

Norway: 6 Points

Senegal: 3 Points

Iraq: 0 Points

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