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World Cup Underdogs: Best Bets for Teams That Can Go Far

by Spencer Toth - 6/10/2026

World Cup underdogs best bets Raul Jimenez Mexico

The World Cup gives countries from around the globe the chance to permanently etch their names into the history books. Only eight nations have ever lifted football’s most elusive prize, but that number could go up if one of these underdogs pulls off a miracle. The nature of the World Cup means that a few defensive performances could be enough to make a deep run in the tournament, as we saw with Morocco in 2022 and Croatia in 2018. While those two fell just short of glory, this could be the year we finally see a new country get its hands on the trophy. After already breaking down the favorites, we are now taking a look at the next handful of teams that are labelled as ‘dark horses’ this year. A total of 14 teams are coming in with odds ranging from +1600 to +10000. You can sprinkle on the other 27 teams, but that will be nothing more than a donation almost every time. Listed are the value on their outright World Cup odds, and the odds to reach the semi-final if you want to take a stab at a shorter, but more realistic price. 

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Netherlands: +1600

Semi-Final odds: +370

The Netherlands could almost be considered a favorite for this tournament, and rightfully so. Their defense, led by Virgil van Dijk and Nathan Ake, is among the best in the world, and there is no shortage of attacking talent in the squad. The Eredivisie has been reliable in developing young Dutch talent, and the national team has reaped those rewards. A favorable group-stage draw, combined with plenty of upside, means we can absolutely justify these odds. Are they the best bet of the tournament? No. But of all the teams on this list, the Netherlands are best equipped to make a deep tournament run. 
Value Rating: 4/5

Belgium: +2200

Semi-Final odds: +390

Belgium wasted their ‘Golden Generation’ of talent over the last decade, and is now trying to squeeze out one more competitive tournament before they hit the reset button. Kevin de Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, Axel Witsel, and Thomas Meunier have all seen better days, and it is hard to imagine this squad making waves in 2026. They fell short when their stars were in their prime, and will almost certainly fall short again this year. 

Value Rating: 1/5 

Norway: +3300

Semi-Final odds: +600

It takes a few special moments to win the World Cup, and Norway has a few special players who are capable of rising to the occasion. Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard are two of the best players in the world. Haaland has led the Premier League in goals for three straight seasons, while Odegaard just captained Arsenal to their best season in decades. The problem with Norway is its lack of depth. Outside of their two stars and a handful of other European mainstays, Norway lacks the depth, especially in the defensive half, to stay competitive. They have a tough group with France and Senegal, meaning qualification is far from guaranteed, but there is still enough upside here to warrant a wager. 

Value Rating: 4/5 

Colombia: +3500

Semi-Final odds: +650

This feels about right. Colombia used the magical moments from James Rodriguez in 2014 to inspire the next generation, and those aspiring youth players are now hitting maturity. Luis Diaz of Bayern Munich headlines their attack, and you can be certain there is no shortage of grit from the Colombian defense. They know how to win games and could win a few knockout stage ties, but anything else would be a big surprise. 

Value Rating: 2/5

Japan: +4500

Semi-Final odds: +1100

I’m calling for Japan to finish third and potentially get eliminated in the group stage, making any sort of longshot bet a foolish proposition. The Netherlands and Sweden join them in Group F, and the Japanese roster isn’t strong or healthy enough to make a deep run. Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino have both been ruled out with serious injuries, and they are Japan’s two best players. Once you factor in Wataru Endo’s late fitness race, Japan is suddenly looking very flat compared to what could have been. No upside here, as I would stay as far away from this team as possible. 

Value Rating: 0/5

Morocco: +5500

Semi-Final odds: +1000

Morocco made a historic run to the semi-finals in Qatar, but is still a long shot to do it again in North America. Achraf Hakimi is their star, but he has been dealing with injuries while the rest of the roster hasn't really improved. Hakim Ziyech was a star in 2022, but the 33-year-old has been left out of the squad entirely. Their manager has prioritized developing youth, which means Morocco has a bright future but will not contend this year. This price has also been slashed thanks to public money coming in after their previous successes, leaving no value left at the current odds. 

Value Rating: 1/5

Mexico: +5500

Semi-Final odds: +850

Host nation Mexico had its incredible streak of seven straight Round of 16 exits snapped with a group stage disappointment in 2022. This year, they have a very favorable group, which makes them almost a shoo-in for the knockout stages, and probably at least the Round of 16. With that in mind, both the outright odds and semi-final odds for this team are quite tempting. Raul Jimenez and Chucky Lozano know how to win on this side of the Atlantic, and a strong Mexican defense will make them a difficult team to break down. There is undeniably value here, and the home-field advantage is just icing on the cake. 

Value Rating: 4/5

USA: +6000

Semi-Final odds: +800

How much of an impact will home-field advantage be? The United States is the primary host of the 2026 World Cup and will have all the attention heading into the tournament. This team has shown promise recently, but they are still well off the other top teams around the world. They have been forced to call on MLS talents in their starting XI, and while the league is improving, it is still nowhere near Europe’s level. An easy group will set them up with a favorable quarter of the bracket, but expecting the Americans to make any real waves in this one feels like a bit of a stretch. The +800 semi-final odds could be worth a stab, but any outright bet is nothing more than a donation. 

Value Rating: 2/5

Uruguay: +6000

Semi-Final odds: +800

Uruguay is the only previous winner featured in this breakdown, and there is a reason they are this far down the odds list heading into the tournament. Luis Suarez spearheaded a strong generation for Uruguay, but it appears as though 2026 will represent a transition period for the national team. Their other attackers leave plenty to be desired, and they are unlikely to win their group alongside Spain. There is never going to be a lot to like by the time we reach +6000 odds, but there is even less to like about Uruguay than the nearby nations. 

Value Rating: 1/5

Turkiye: +7000

Semi-Final odds: +1300

Turkiye has been a team to keep an eye on over the last decade, but they haven’t been able to turn moderately high expectations into tangible results. World Cup and Euro Cup disappointments aside, there is plenty of talent right now in Turkiye. Arda Guller of Real Madrid will announce himself to the international stage, and this could be the year Turkiye finally takes the next step. Hakan Calhanoglu is a reliable number ten, and the Turkish backline features experienced defenders from around Europe. This squad isn’t as talented as Spain or France, but there are real reasons to expect a strong tournament. Group D is very winnable alongside the USA, Paraguay, and Australia, meaning these longshot odds could quickly be slashed if they get off to a strong start. If you're looking for one true longshot with upside, Turkiye is the best number on the board.

Value Rating: 5/5

Switzerland: +7000

Semi-Final odds: +850

Switzerland has the easiest group of the tournament with Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Qatar, with them in Group B. Anything short of a first-place seed would be quite the surprise, which means Switzerland shouldn’t have any issues reaching the Round of 16. While I like their chances to reach the semi-final, it appears as though their potentially easy path to a deep tournament run has been priced into the odds. Switzerland has an underrated squad that can’t be overlooked, but both their semi-final and outright odds are fair. 

Value Rating: 3/5

Croatia: +7500

Semi-Final odds: +1000

Croatia has reached the semi-finals in back-to-back World Cups, yet still has long odds to do so again in 2026. Luka Modric will soon retire, Ivan Rakitic has already hung up his boots, and the next generation isn’t quite developed enough to challenge at the World Cup. Croatia has been underestimated before, and while I won't go as far as to write them off, a deep run in 2026 appears unlikely. 

Value Rating: 2/5

Ecuador: +8000

Semi-Final odds: +1200

Ecuador has only made it out of the group stage once before, but has a real chance to do so this year with Curacao, the Ivory Coast, and Germany in their group. When looking at a long shot like this, all you can ask for is one knockout stage win, which will dramatically shorten these prices. Ecuador has a strong blend of attack and defense, and we are getting a great price due to their lack of previous World Cup successes. However, they came second in South America’s World Cup qualifying, routinely getting the clean sheets they needed to pick up three points. If Ecuador has been practicing their penalty shootout routines, they could be the team that grinds their way through the knockout stages to the surprise of many. 

Value Rating: 4/5

Austria: +10000

Semi-Final odds: +1300

Austria has been steadily improving in recent years and is poised for a potentially strong tournament after winning their qualifying group. However, they don’t have enough offense to break down the top teams, and haven’t really been tested on defense in recent years. Sure, they shut down San Marino, Cyprus, and Romania in qualifying, but slowing down their next opponents will be a much tougher task. They are far from guaranteed to make it out of a group with Argentina and Algeria, and even if they do, they are still a pass. 

Value Rating: 1/5

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