Betting on Euro 2012: Germany vs. Greece Odds and Quarterfinals Picks
by Trevor Whenham - 6/20/2012
The second quarterfinal match of Euro 2012 will be played Friday, June 22, at 2:45 pm ET in Gdansk, Poland. Germany has only played in Ukraine so far, while Greece played in Poland, but not in Gdansk. Gdansk is in northern Poland not far from the German border, so the crowd should be heavily tilted towards the favorite here.
Bovada’s oddsmakers have little doubt about how this one is going to turn out. Germany is the overwhelming favorite at -330 on the moneyline. The draw is at +430, with Greece a massive underdog at +900. The point spread is set at 1.5, with Germany at -1.5(even) and Greece at +1.5(-130). The point spread is at 2.5, with the ‘over’ favored heavily at -135 compared to +105 for the ‘under’.
How they got here
Germany faced by far the toughest group of the tournament, and they made winning it look pretty easy. They opened with what turned out to be their toughest test — a 1-0 win over Portugal. They were the better team for much of the game, but it took more than 70 minutes to tally the winner. In Game 2 they beat Netherlands. The game wasn’t nearly as close as the 2-1 score indicates — they were up 2-0 at the half and cruised through the second half. Denmark played their hearts out in the third game, but ultimately the Danes weren’t good enough to beat the Germans. They are the only team that won all three games, and are the best-looking team to date.
Greece is the second-place qualifier in the worst group in a major tournament in recent memory, so they are far from an impressive team. They opened with a draw against a weak Poland team, though they did have to contend with playing in front of a very vocal Polish crowd. In their next game they lost 2-1 to the Czech Republic in one of the ugliest games of the whole tournament. They were outplayed in their final game against Russia, but found a way to come out on top, 1-0. That tied them with Russia in the standings, but Greece advanced because of the head-to-head win.
German Coach Joachim Low faced a tough, controversial decision when he had to choose between Miroslav Klose — the established veteran leader — or Mario Gomez — the flashy young sniper — as his starting striker. He went with Gomez and it has unquestionably been the right choice. Gomez has three goals, and he has been the difference in two games so far. He has been wildly confident and is almost impossible to defend when he is at his best.
Greece doesn’t have the luxury of a megastar scorer like Gomez, but you can point to the fact that their three goals have come from three different players — two strikers and a midfielder – as a positive. When a team doesn’t have an offensive star they need to share the load, and they have done a decent job of doing just that.
Greece has one major issue here — they are hopelessly outclassed. This is not a particularly competitive team, and they are playing quite likely the best team in the whole field — and the favorites to win it all at this point. Their biggest issue in this one is that there is almost no way for them to win this one unless Germany plays their worst possible game.
Germany, to this point, has not shown any significant issues. They have played much tougher teams than this and have been in control throughout. They have been sound defensively, offensively dangerous, and versatile. Their depth is impressive. I’d love to find a reason to give Greece some hope and justify betting on them underdogs at these massive prices, but I just can’t do it. The only way Germany can lose here is if they beat themselves.
Betting Predictions and Picks
Germany is not going to lose this one. They are focused, hungry, and in strong form. Greece limped this far and they would need a miracle to come out on top. The problem, though, is that the odds are so low that betting on Germany isn’t particularly attractive. To try to find a decent price I’d look towards the prop bets. You can get 5/1 that Germany will win 2-0 and 7/1 that they win 3-0. I’d bet both of those to give a better chance of a decent payout.
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