2012 PGA Tour Money List Futures Odds and Predictions
by Dave Schwab - 5/8/2012
This week marks the start of what is often thought of as professional golf’s fifth major; the PGA’s Players Championship from TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra, Florida.
Besides claiming the most prestigious title that is not one of four coveted Majors, the player that wins this week will make a major move on the PGA Money List with a generous share of this tournament’s $9.5 million purse, which is the highest on the Tour.
The following is a look at a few of the leading contenders to win this season’s money title along with their current odds as provided by Bovada.
Northern Ireland sensation Rory McIlroy remains the clear odds-on-favorite to win the most money on the PGA Tour this season at 5/2. He is currently in third-place in the standings with just under $3 million after pocketing $572,000 for last week’s tie for second in the Wells Fargo Championship. He has only played in five of 20 PGA events this season, but he has finished in the Top 5 in four of them. Depending on what his US schedule is the rest of the way, he should walk away with the money title if he stays on that kind of pace, especially if he wins this week as the 9/1 favorite.
Tiger Woods is currently 12th on the money list with $1.8 million, but he remains the second-favorite to win the title at 5/1. It is hard to find value in any of Woods’ odds whether it is an individual tournament or a season-long competition simply because his current form does not warrant such lofty expectations anymore. The betting public continues to live in past glories, which artificially drives his odds down. He did win the Arnold Palmer Invitational in late March, but Woods is coming off a poor performance in the Masters followed by a missed cut in last week’s tournament. He is still capable of going on a run, but the value at 5/1 is just not there.
The third-favorite to win the money title is Hunter Mahan at 6/1. He is currently in second place on the list at $3.1 million in earnings as a result of two tour victories already on this season’s resume. The 10-year Tour veteran pocketed $1.4 million for his win at the Accenture Match Play Championship in February and came in first in the Shell Houston Open the first weekend in April. Mahan tied for 12th in this year’s Masters and has been opened as a 33/1 longshot to win this week. Regardless of the long odds in this event, his current form adds value to his money list odds given the amount of PGA events he is expected to play in the rest of the year.
The other favorite at 6/1 to win the money title is Luke Donald. He is currently 11th on the money list at just over $1.8 million, which was earned over seven events so far. He is actually one of the second favorites at 14/1 to win this week and should be in position for a healthy payday that could rapidly close the gap with the leaders. Donald has already won the Transitions Tournament and finished third in the Zurich Classic. However, some of the value in his odds is lost in light of an expected limited PGA playing schedule the rest of the season.
Fan favorite Bubba Watson is still basking in his thrilling win at the Masters with appearances in just one event since then, but he remains at the top of the Money List with just over $3.2 million in earnings. Along with his win at Augusta, the 35-year old lefty has two second-place finishes and a fourth-place finish in the three events leading up to that glorious run. His current odds to remain the leading earner on the PGA Tour are 8/1. On the surface, there appears to be a ton of value in those odds given his current form and there still may be, but Watson’s recent decision to take a month off, which includes losing out on a share this week’s lucrative prize purse, opens the door for a few other golfers to knock him off his perch from which he may never recover.
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