Post US Open Majors/Tiger Woods Props and Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews - 6/20/2012
With golf’s Grand Slam season now halfway in the books following Webb Simpson’s win at the US Open on Sunday at Olympic, it’s time to revisit some of the season-long props on major wins for some of golf’s biggest names at Bovada and make some betting predictions.
But before I address those, it’s now pretty clear that parity has reached the PGA Tour. Simpson’s come-from-behind victory made him the 15th different player to win golf’s past 15 majors and the ninth straight first-time major champion.
Padraig Harrington was the last player to win two majors in a row, when in 2008 he captured both the British Open and PGA Championship. Between 1999 and 2008, Tiger Woods won 13 of the 36 majors that were held over that period. Of course, Woods didn’t compete in the ’08 British or PGA because of an injured leg after he won the 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines.
That Tiger didn’t win this past weekend was a major upset considering he was tied for the 36-hole lead. Tiger had had a record of 8-1 when holding at least a share of a 36-hole lead at one of the four Grand Slam events. The one time he hadn’t won was at the 2009 PGA Championship when Tiger had a four-stroke lead through 36 holes and a two-stroke advantage through 54 holes but was overtaken by South Korea's Y.E. Yang.
At Olympic, Tiger shot 75-73 on the weekend to finish at seven-over par and tied for 21st. He missed seven fairways on Saturday, as many as he had in the first two rounds, and was six-over par on the first six holes Sunday. It was his worst US Open finish as a pro and his worst weekend rounds at a major other than 73-76 at the 2004 US Open.
Yet there Tiger is as the 6/1 favorite on Bovada to win next month’s British Open at Royal Lytham St. Anne. He’s also the 3/1 favorite to win any of the remaining two majors this season. The last time the Open Championship visited that course was in 2001 when David Duval won at 10-under 274. Woods finished nine shots back and had just one round in the 60s. The PGA Championship this year is at Kiawah Island, which has never hosted a major. I would not take Tiger on any of those above props. You can get Tiger at -600 to win no majors this year. One is +350 and two at +2500. I’m going with none.
Rory McIlroy was the defending US Open champion, but he is simply playing terrible golf. McIlroy shot 77-73 to miss the cut at Olympic, his fourth missed cut in his past five events. His head is not on straight at the moment. Rory to win no majors is -900, with one at +450 and two at +3300. McIlroy is the 12/1 early third-favorite to win the British Open, but I wouldn’t take him to win a muni tournament in Cleveland right now.
Lee Westwood had yet another Top-10 at a major at Olympic and might have been in serious contention if he didn’t lose a ball in a tree on Sunday after a stellar 67 on Saturday. He is the early 11/1 second-favorite to Tiger at the British and I couldn’t love Westwood more there. I would very much jump on him at +450 to win one major this year.
At least Phil Mickelson didn’t finish second for a sixth time at the US Open. But he was never a factor after an opening 76 and finished T65. In the ’01 British at Royal St. Lytham, Lefty finished 11 shots behind Duval. Mickelson is at a whopping -4000 to win no majors this year. I don’t think he gets one but it’s not even worth it at that price. To win the British, Mickelson is at 20/1.
Could world No. 1 Luke Donald get his first major win next month? He is 14/1 at the British after missing the cut at the Open after rounds of 79-72. Donald just doesn’t seem to play well at the majors; he was T32 at the Masters. Donald winning no majors is at -2000.
Finally, I wouldn’t go betting on Simpson to pull of the US Open-British Open double. He’s at 40/1, which seems like great value. But only 17 players all-time have won a US Open and British Open in their careers and only five have won them both in the same year. The last was Tiger in 2000. Simpson is playing in this week’s PGA Tour stop, the Travelers Championship, and you can look for a preview of that Wednesday as usual.
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