2012 Preakness Stakes Betting Props with Odds and Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 5/18/2012
There isn’t nearly as much prop betting action for the middle leg of the Triple Crown as there is for the Kentucky Derby. Sportsbooks do offer some different Preakness props, though, and some can provide interesting value. Here’s a look at some of the more interesting ones from BetUS this week:
Winning margin of victory
How you view this question depends upon how much you like Bodemeister. If you think that he is going to be able to bide his time on the lead before exploding down the stretch then you would pick a bigger margin of victory — 1 to 2.75 lengths is at +200, 3 to 5.75 lengths is +300, and 6 to 7.75 lengths is +700. If you think that Bodemeister is going to struggle late like he did in the Derby, though, then you might opt for a shorter margin of victory. The pace isn’t likely to be as suicidal this time, so the horses chasing him won’t be as worn out, and there could be a tough battle between horses like Creative Cause. I’ll Have Another, and Went the Day Well for the win. a margin of 0.5 to 0.75 lengths pays +400, and seems like it could be reasonable if the favorite doesn’t come through.
Winning saddlecloth number
You can bet here on whether the winner will have an odd number (-300) or an even one (+200). This one basically boils down to five horses. On the odd side you have No. 5 Went the Day Well, No. 7 Bodemeister, and No. 9 I’ll Have Another. On the even side you have No. 6 Creative Cause and No. 8 Daddy Nose Best. With 11 horses in the field the odd side gets one more horse than the even as well. All in all it’s far from surprising that the odd is heavily favored.
Winning time of the race
‘Over’ 1:55 is favored at -160, while the ‘under’ is at +130. In the last 13 years — since Real Quiet came so painfully close to winning the Triple Crown — only three horses have gone under 1:55. They came in three consecutive races starting in 2006 — Bernardini, Curlin and Big Brown. On the surface, then, the over would seem like the logical place to be. The issue is, though, that Bodemeister is fast. Very fast. If he can settle on the lead without being pushed too hard then there is a good chance than he can show off that speed throughout the race and go under that time. I think Bodemeister will be able to dictate the pace, so I’ll take the under.
Winning horses name begins with the letter...
A-M is heavily favored at -300, while N-Z is at +200. The price is steep on the first half of the alphabet, but there is still some nice value to be had there. Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Daddy Nose Best, and I’ll Have Another are four of the five best horses in the race, and they are all in that group. So is Cozzetti — arguably the most promising of the uninspiring group of new arrivals on the Triple Crown Trail. Basically by betting A-M the biggest thing you are doing is going against the chances of Went the Day Well.
Winning trainer’s last name begins with the letter...
The odds are the same here as the last alphabet puzzle, though the distribution is a little different. Among the top five contenders, Bodemeister, Creative Cause, Daddy Nose Best, and Went the Day Well all fit in the first group, while thanks to Doug O’Neill I’ll Have Another is in the latter group. The A-M group again has the clear edge, though not as significantly as they did last time since I’ll Have Another is a step ahead of Went the Day Well in quality. The Derby winner is at just 5-2 in the morning line, though. If you expect him to draw more action and be bet below that level by the public on race day then betting on his group here at 2-1 might be a good way to get a slightly better price on the horse — and with less risk since you also win if Cozzetti wins.
Will Bodemeister win the Preakness?
The ‘yes’ is at +160 right now. The horse is at 8/5 on the morning line. If he gets bet down below that morning line at all — which seems very likely — then +160 will be a nice price in comparison. Even if he doesn’t get bet down you don’t have to worry about what happens with this bet, so it’s easier to plan your bets and manage your bankroll. If you are planning a win bet on Bodemeister then looking here instead could make good sense.
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