Weekly Philadelphia Eagles Betting Picks: Week 6 vs. Lions
by Dave Schwab - 10/10/2012
The Detroit Lions come off their bye week and will be looking for fresh start when they travel to Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday afternoon for a NFC matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles. The game is slated to kickoff at 1 p.m. (ET) and it will be broadcast locally on FOX.
This weekly betting preview is part of an ongoing series where I thoroughly analyze each and every Eagles game and offer a free NFL pick using Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. A sports betting strategy should always include a few wagers on what you know best as concentration on a particular team has often proven to be a profitable approach to wagering on the NFL.
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Betting Lines by 5Dimes
Pointspread: Philadelphia -4.5
Total Line: 47.5
Game Overview: Detroit
A 1-3 straight up start is not what Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz envisioned for this season after guiding the Lions into the playoffs last year for the first time since 1999. Including their lone 27-23 victory on opening day over St. Louis, they have failed to cover the spread in all four games and the total has gone 2-1-1 so far.
Fourth-year quarterback Matthew Stafford has been able to stay healthy through the first quarter of the season, and while he has thrown for 1,182 yards he has just three touchdown passes verse four interceptions. Calvin Johnson remains a force with 29 receptions for 423 yards. However, with running back Jahvid Best still out of the lineup, the Lions are averaging just 90.2 rushing yards a game. Nonetheless, the offense has remained fairly productive with an average of 25 points a game. The real problems have come on the defensive side of the ball. The Lions are ranked 26th in the NFL in points allowed and have given up a total of 91 points in their last three games.
Game Overview: Philadelphia
Turnovers remain the primary issue for Philadelphia, especially when it comes to Michael Vick. He has tossed six interceptions and lost five fumbles in the first five games, which makes the team’s 3-2 SU (1-3-1 ATS) record all that more improbable. Of even greater concern is the fact that this normally high-powered, big-play offense is averaging just 16 points a game. All the pieces remain in place with quality talent at all the skill positions, but so far the Eagles have really struggled in the red zone to score touchdowns.
The saving grace to this team’s troubled offense is a revitalized defense that is holding opponents to less than 20 points a game. It has been equally effective against both the pass and the run, but it is still known to give up the big play every now and then. A late-game collapse cost the Eagles a win in Pittsburgh, and the secondary was riddled by former Philadelphia quarterback Kevin Kolb in a lopsided loss to Arizona.
Game Betting Trends
The Lions are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road. The total has gone “over” in five of their last seven games following a SU loss and in four of their last six games overall.
The Eagles are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. The total has stayed “under” in five of their last six games following a SU loss.
These two last met in 2010, with Philadelphia coming away with a 35-32 victory as a 6.5-point road favorite. The home team in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone over in the last two.
Despite all of Vick’s miscues, he has led the team on three game-winning drives this season late in the fourth quarter, and he put his team in position to beat Pittsburgh last Sunday. It is only a matter of time before he tightens things up with the ball and starts getting this offense back into the end zone. With the way the Lions’ defense has been playing lately, this matchup is a perfect opportunity for an offensive explosion. With a bye week of their own on the horizon, the Eagles know the importance of a win this Sunday at home considering that head coach Andy Reid has never lost a game SU following a bye week in 13 seasons at the helm. Utilizing Doc’s Sports Service Unit Betting System, I am going with a 5-Unit play on Philadelphia to win and cover the 4.5-point spread.
Take # 220 Philadelphia (-4.5) over Detroit for 5 Units
YTD Record: -7 Units (-$800)
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