Golf Odds and Predictions: AT&T National
by Alan Matthews - 6/26/2013
This PGA Tour season is just getting ridiculous. Yet again last week at the Travelers Championship we had a relative unknown first-time winner, Ken Duke. He beat another guy I'd have to look up, Chris Stroud, in a playoff. I guess it wasn't a huge surprise it was a first-timer at Hartford as Duke is the sixth first-time winner in the past eight tournaments there and 10th this season.
One of the few big names in field last week was Bubba Watson, whose first Tour win came in Hartford. He was leading when he hit his tee shot into the water on the par-3 16th on Sunday. He triple bogeyed and finished two shots out of the playoff. Watson could be heard ripping his caddie on the CBS cameras on that hole.
I was shocked that U.S. Open champion Justin Rose had such a good showing last week. He got within a stroke of the lead Sunday but faded on the back nine and admitted fatigue was a factor. Thus I was not at all surprised that Rose pulled out of this week's AT&T National. Also out is tournament host Tiger Woods, saying he has an injured elbow. You could see Tiger shaking the elbow at times during the U.S. Open -- notice how he doesn't shake it after a good shot but only a bad one? He'll be ready for the British Open. This is the third time he has missed this tournament due to injury.
I didn't have a good week at the Travelers, hitting only on Lee Westwood (-115) head-to-head over Jason Dufner I liked Westwood to win, but he disappointed with a 74th place-finish thanks to a final-round 78.
Now the pros move on to the AT&T National held at Congressional outside Washington D.C., the course that hosted the 2011 U.S. Open when Rory McIlroy won in record-setting fashion. With Woods and Rose out, just two of the Top 10 are here: Adam Scott and Brandt Snedeker. Pretty much every European is now back across the pond preparing for the British Open. Woods is the defending champion and two-time winner, and Rose won the event in 2010. Thus the only two past champions in the field are Nick Watney (2011, when it wasn't held at Congressional due to the U.S. Open; neither was the 2010 tournament Rose won) and K.J. Choi (2007, the inaugural event).
Last year, Congressional definitely was the winner as the field averaged 73.046 strokes on the par 71, according to the PGA Tour. It was the highest field average in relation to par of any non-major a year ago. The sixth hole played as a par 5 for the first time. At 7,569 yards, Congressional is the second-longest course on the schedule this year outside of Torrey Pines.
Golf Odds: AT&T National Favorites
Scott, the Masters winner, is the 10/1 favorite at Bovada. He seems to be suffering a bit of a major hangover himself, shooting just three of 12 rounds in the 60s in his three events since Augusta. Scott finished T45 last time out at the U.S. Open. He was third here a year ago and may have won if not for a first-round 75. Scott was T3 in 2011 as well, but, again, remember Congressional didn't host this tournament in 2010-11.
Fellow Aussie Jason Day, who was my choice to win the U.S. Open, is 12/1. He is totally due for a victory as the U.S. Open was his fifth Top 10 this year. Day also hasn't missed a cut. He finished T8 at last year's AT&T.
Snedeker and Hunter Mahan are 16/1. Snedeker just can't seem to find the form that had him dominating early this year and then suffering a rib injury. He hasn't shot a round in the 60s since Friday at the Players Championship. Last time this tournament was at Congressional and Snedeker played he was T5 in 2009.
Mahan was T24 last week after a T4 at the U.S. Open. Mahan was T8 here a year ago. Billy Horschel and Rickie Fowler (both 20/1) round out the favorites. Horschel wasn't in the field last year but is having a great season. Fowler also sat out last year and was T13 last week.
Golf Odds: AT&T National Picks
On a Top-10 finish, I like Scott (-110), Day (+120) and Bo Van Pelt (+275). Head-to-head, I like Mahan (-120) over Snedeker (-110), Horschel (-115) over Fowler (-115) and Fredrik Jacobson (-115) over Jimmy Walker (-115).
I am tempted to go with Van Pelt at 25/1 to win after his runner-up last year. He's a bit overdue but has only one Top 10 all year after 10 in 2012. Jim Furyk is interesting at 33/1. He wasn't good at the U.S. Open but of his 16 career rounds at Congressional, 11 have been in the 60s. He was third in this event twice.
But I think this course suits Day's game perfectly. He seems to thrive on the tougher courses, as shown at Merion, and has the length to tame Congressional. He's the choice. I think the fact Day is paired with countrymen Scott and Marc Leishman for the first two rounds only helps things.
Doc’s Sports is offering $60 worth of member’s picks absolutely free – no obligation, no sales people – you don’t even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please for any handicapper and any sport on Doc’s Sports Advisory Board list of expert sports handicappers. Click here for more details and take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today.
Read more articles by Alan Matthews
Most Recent Golf Handicapping
- The Open Championship: A Brief History of the PGA's Oldest Major Tournament
- The Masters: A Brief History of the PGA Tour's First Major
- Expert Golf Handicapping: How to Wager on Tiger Woods Return to the Links
- 2017 Masters Picks with Odds and Expert Golf Betting Predictions
- Tiger Woods 2017 Betting Props with Expert Betting Predictions
- Olympic Men's Golf Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Picks
- 2016 Canadian Open Picks with Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
- PGA Tour Picks: Northern Trust Open Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
- Rory McIlroy Odds to Win The Masters with Picks and Expert Predictions
- PGA Tour Picks: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Odds and Predictions