2014 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Predictions and Betting Odds
by Trevor Whenham - 10/28/2014
The Classic is the Breeders' Cup race that gets all the attention, and it is probably my favorite. It is when the stars come out to play. A close second, though, would be the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. I am obsessed with the Triple Crown and want few things in life more than to see a Triple Crown winner. This race is our chance to see the early stars of next year's three-year-old class and see how they measure up.
Of course, the outcome of this race only rarely has anything to do with what we see next May and beyond. The winner here will be viewed as the first real Kentucky Derby contender for next year, though, and for a brief period it will be easy to believe that we have witnessed greatness and gotten a glimpse of history. For those that love the romance of the Triple Crown, this race represents sweet, glorious hope.
This year it's a pretty excellent - though top-heavy - field, too. Unfortunately, on Tuesday morning the race lost some of its luster. American Pharoah, the morning line favorite, came up lame and was scratched from the race. He was one of four horses - a stablemate, and two rivals from a competing stable - who were likely to draw most of the attention. He was also, at least to these eyes, the clear class of the field. He was sitting on a very big effort. We'll never know, though, and now we are left with just a big three. I'd said before that a winner that wasn't one of the big four would be a major upset. With one fewer elite horse in the field, there are obviously more opportunities for others, but these three still stand well above the rest:
One Lucky Dane (10/1): Last year, trainer Bob Baffert had two horses in this race. Tap It Rich got more attention and took more money, but it was the other horse, New Year's Day, that wound up winning it. Could history repeat itself for Baffert? The primary Baffert horse this year was definitely going to be American Pharoah, and this guy would have flown under the radar. With his stablemate out of the way, this horse will get much less attention than the two horses that follow. He was unimpressive in two races on the synthetic at Del Mar, but he was a whole new horse when he moved to the dirt at Santa Anita earlier this month. He exploded for a nine-length victory. That was just a Maiden Special Weight, so he faces a massive step up in class and a longer race. He won very easily, though, and improved dramatically from his previous race. He likes to win from the front. So does American Pharoah, so when both were in the race it was possible, and perhaps likely, that this horse would have acted as a rabbit early to make sure that American Pharoah faced a legitimate pace. Now that he is a lone wolf, though, he could be free to set his own pace, run his own race, and improve his own chances of winning. Baffert has won the Juvenile three times, so he knows what it takes, and he is going to have this horse ready. There could be real value here.
Carpe Diem (4/1): You can't talk about the Juvenile or the Triple Crown without Baffert or Todd Pletcher. Like Baffert was supposed to, Pletcher has two nice horses in this race. He has also won two of the last four editions of this race. This horse has won both of his starts, including an almost insultingly easy win in his stakes debut in the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last time out. He's very good and improving, and like his stablemate and the Baffert horse he will be in the heart of the race - and the betting. He's a son of Giant's Causeway out of an Unbridled's Song mare, so not only is this race distance going to be no challenge for him at all, but I'm already imagining him in the Belmont Stakes.
Daredevil (7/2): Stop me if you have heard this one before - this horse from a world-class trainer of youngsters comes into this race after a dominating stakes win last time out. With the departure of American Pharoah, Daredevil will likely enter the gates as the favorite. He has run twice and overwhelmed the field both times - including a win in the Champagne Stakes last time out. The knocks, if you are desperate to find them, are that both of his wins have come at Belmont and on a wet track. He is unlikely to see anything but a dry-and-fast track here, and the Santa Anita stretch is much shorter than what he is used to. Still, his 107 Beyer speed rating in winning the Champagne was so freakish that you can't rule him out at all - and he has trained very fast over a fast track. In an interesting note for you breeding geeks like me out there, this horse is a son of More Than Ready, a horse that Pletcher also trained. Similarly, both of Baffert's horses are sons of horses - Pioneerof The Nile and Lookin at Lucky, respectively - that Baffert also trained.
Doc's Sports is offering $60 worth of free member's Breeders' Cup picks absolutely free - no obligation, no sales people - you don't even have to enter credit card information. You can use this $60 credit any way you please on any of our top horse racing handicappers. Click here for more details and to take advantage of this free $60 picks credit today .
Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
Most Recent Horse Race Betting and Handicapping
- Will There Be A Triple Crown Winner in 2020? Expert Horse Racing Tips and Predictions
- 2020 Belmont Stakes Predictions
- Belmont Stakes Odds - Live Horse Racing Betting Odds Updated
- 2020 Arkansas Derby Predictions with Morning Line Betting Odds
- 2020 Louisiana Derby Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Picks
- 2020 Rebel Stakes Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Picks
- 2019 Breeders' Cup Betting Tips: Horses to Watch
- 2019 Breeders Cup Long Shots: High-Value Horses to Watch
- 2019 Breeders' Cup Classic Predictions and Expert Betting Picks
- 2019 Breeders' Cup Mile Predictions and Expert Betting Picks