2014 Breeders' Cup Long Shots Who Could Provide Big Payday
by Trevor Whenham - 10/28/2014
One of the many things I love about the Breeders' Cup is the long shots. With so many races to choose from each year, you just know that a few big long shots are going to hit the board and deliver some really sweet prices. The nice thing about betting long shots is that you can bet a bunch of them and you only have to be right once to make some money. It's the horse racing equivalent of a lottery, but the odds aren't nearly as unattractive. I spend as much time each year combing through the entrants to find the long shots that are going to come through and make me feel - for just that brief moment - like a handicapping god.
Here are six Breeders' Cup long shots that intrigue me for the 2014 races:
Big Macher, Sprint (12/1): It's been an odd year for this guy. He looked great early in the year, but then an injury put him on the bench for nearly four months. He was a very impressive winner in his return to action against a strong field, but then he had nothing to give next time out. Instead of trying again, he was just trained up to this race - nearly a 70-day layoff. He was so good off his last layoff, though, and he has trained very well lately.
Texas Red, Juvenile (20/1): The big three in this race -One Lucky Dane, Daredevil and Carpe Diem - will draw most of the action in this one. That leaves some fat prices to be found on other horses. This horse was a solid third behind the dominating American Pharoah last time out. He was strong at the end of that race and has consistently improved - especially with the move to dirt from synthetics. He could be a factor to get a piece - especially if one of the top horses falters.
Emollient, Filly and Mare Turf (12/1): Horses have often done well in this race in their second try in it, and Emollient is the only horse other than the defending champ, the certain-to-be-massively-overbet Dank, who is back for more this year. She won on this surface at this distance last time out, and I trust her training. She has been a different horse since getting blinkers this summer, and that could have her focused and ready to be a contender in another wide-open race this year.
Ambitious Brew, Turf Sprint (12/1): Heading into his last race, this horse had a perfect 3-for-3 record on the tricky downhill turf course at Santa Anita. Familiarity with this quirky course is a massive advantage in this race. He was a solid second in that race, the Eddie D., and that result is particularly impressive when you consider that it followed a long layoff and that it was his first graded stakes race and first against open company. He has a lot more room to improve, and the price is right.
Home Run Kitten, Turf Sprint (12/1): Few races are more wide open than the Turf Sprint, so it only makes sense that two horses in the field could be a factor at a big price. The second is Home Run Kitten. He beat Ambitious Brew in the Eddie D., and he did it by unleashing a very nice closing move. He has won both times he has tried on the downhill turf course. No three year old has ever won this race, but only nine have tried, so that isn't a trend to panic about. There will be no shortage of speed for this closer to chase this time around, and he'll be comfortable in his surroundings.
Bronzo, Dirt Mile (12/1): I am a sucker for mystery horses, and this one certainly fits the bill. He is a big star in Chile, having won two huge races there in apparently impressive fashion this summer. The five year old is making his U.S. debut here, and he has certainly picked a tough spot to do it. He earned his spot in this race with a win in the Copa de Oro on June 27, though, and by early July he was in California aiming for this race. How well does Chilean success translate directly to American racing? I have no idea, and anyone who tells you that they do is likely lying. Goldencents and Fed Biz are going to be bet to death in this one, though, and I don't think either one is unbeatable. Why not take a crazy flier? Think of the story you'll have if you bet this one and are right.
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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