2014 Final Four Betting Trends for NCAA Tournament Handicapping
by Trevor Whenham - 4/2/2014
As we get ready for the last weekend of what has been a great NCAA Tournament, here are some Final Four betting trends for the four squads to help get you prepared for the upcoming action and to help you have the best chance to make profit before the nets are cut down on Monday:
The Huskies have been a nicely-profitable team to bet on this year - they are a solid 21-15 ATS on the season. Really, though, you only needed to bet the last seven games they have played to realize all of the profit. They are 6-1 ATS over that stretch - the ACC and NCAA Tournaments - so they were just 15-14 ATS before that. They have been a streaky betting team all year - they were 9-1 ATS over the games that started on Jan. 8 but were just 1-7 ATS in the eight games immediately before that.
The Huskies have played just one of their potential Final Four opponents. They beat Florida on Dec. 2 - the last team to do so - but they did not cover the spread as they were four-point favorites at home. In other words, it wasn't nearly the upset then that it seems to have been now.
The best way to bet the Huskies during this season was to take the "under". They went under 22 times in 35 games. The bad news, though, is that they went under in 11 of 15 games at home, so they haven't been nearly as reliable away from Storrs.
The Gators have been a barely-profitable team all season - they are just 18-15-1 ATS. That trend has extended into the postseason where they have generated a very slight profit at 4-3 ATS. They were fairly consistent as well, with no one setting giving them a real betting edge - they were 8-6-1 ATS at home, 6-5 ATS on the road, and 4-4 ATS in neutral-site games like their last two remaining.
Remarkably, this team has already played all of their potential Final Four opponents this year, and have a combined five games against the groups. The bad news is that Wisconsin and UConn represent their only two losses on the year. They have beaten Kentucky all three times they have met, though the last game was very close. Overall they were 3-2 ATS against the group.
Like UConn, the under has been the profitable bet for the Gators. The totals are at 11-22-1 on the year, and they have gone under five times in eight neutral-site games, including five of seven in neutral-site games.
On the season, the Wildcats have been a profitable bet - they are 19-15-2 ATS. They have been a different team since the end of the regular season, though, and that has extended to the betting front as well. They have played seven postseason games, and they have covered the spread in all of them. They have been 8-1 ATS in neutral-site games on the year, so they are happy playing in Arlington or anywhere else. They have played the Gators three times this year, and they are 1-2 ATS in those games, though the cover came in the most recent meeting.
They have gone under the total in 19 of 34 games, so they are a profitable under team like the first two squads on this list. They have split 5-5 against the total in neutral-site games, though, and have gone "over" in each of their last three tournament games.
The trend is complete - like the other three teams on this list the Badgers are profitable on the year. They sit at 21-16 on the season. Like UConn and Kentucky, they have turned the season profitable with their postseason success - they have covered all four of the spreads in their tournament games and five of six since the season ended. The only of their potential opponents they have faced is Florida, and they covered the spread in that one by half a point - they were favored by 5.5 at home.
Unlike the other teams, the over has been the profitable bet for the Badgers this year, but only by the narrowest of margins - they have gone over in 19 of 36 games. They have gone under in three of their last four, though, and five of eight on neutral courts.
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