2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions: South Region

by Robert Ferringo - 3/18/2026

March Madness bracket predictions South Region Rueben Chinyelu Florida Gators

Chaos or chalk?

Last year was the most, I don’t know, organized, NCAA tournament in recent memory and one of the least chaotic in modern history.

Only four teams seeded 11 or worse won their opening round game. Only one double-digit seed (No. 10 Arkansas) made it to the Sweet 16. No team lower than a No. 3 seed made the Elite Eight, with three of the regions having No. 1 versus No. 2.

And, of course, all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four.

Is this the new normal? Have NIL and increased transfer opportunities taken all the fun out of March Madness by funneling all the talent to the top?

Are bracket busters a thing of the past?

I wouldn’t count on it. Last year was a particularly chalky tournament. But I think that is just lulling people into a false sense of confidence and complacency heading into this year’s Big Dance. If the last 40 years have taught us anything, it is that no one is safe in March.

There are 24 teams seeded No. 1 through No. 6 in their region. Over the course of the last 40 years, an average of 4.8 teams (190 total) seeded No. 6 or better have gotten upset in the opening round.

Last year, only four teams seeded No. 11 or worse won their opening game, with a pair of No. 12’s (Colorado State and McNeese State) pulling off the biggest upsets. There were seven upsets from No. 11’s or lower in 2024, four in 2023, six in 2022, seven in 2021, five in 2019 and four apiece in 2018 and 2017.

That means that over the last eight tournaments, an average of five teams seeded No. 11 or worse won their opening round game. Those are the “bracket busters”. And when these mathematically certain upsets occur, Everyone will start screaming about how “wild” an “unpredictable” the NCAA Tournament is.

(Even though it’s not.)

In fact, because last year was so rote, I think that makes it MORE likely that we will see some insanity this weekend.

To wit:

- Last year was one of just two years that one of the top four seeds in any region didn’t lose. That’s never happened in consecutive years.

- A No. 13 seed has won a first round game in 28 of 40 tournaments. They didn’t last year. There’s only been one other time that we went back-to-back tournaments without a No. 13 seed beating a No. 4.

- Not a single No. 11 seed made the Sweet 16 last year. The last time that happened in back-to-back years was in 2008-2009.

- A double-digit seed has made the Sweet 16 in 17 straight years. But over the last three years, exactly one double-digit seed advanced past the opening weekend. That has never happened before.

For 40 years we have had a predictable amount of “unpredictability” in the NCAA tournament. Then last year, everything went according to plan. So, I ask you: what are the odds that the same thing is going to happen this year?

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

With that in mind, here are Doc’s Sports March Madness bracket predictions for the South Region:

No. 1 Seed: Florida Gators (+175 to win South Region)

The defending champions got off to a bit of a rocky start to the season, losing four of their first 10 games and sprinkling in some unimpressive wins along the way. Florida has been outstanding since then, going 21-3 the rest of the way and winning the SEC regular season title by three full games. Florida’s frontcourt of Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu bludgeon opponents with their size and skill. The Gators are No. 330 in the country in bench minutes, though, so injury, foul trouble, or just an off night from a couple players could lay them low. They also need better play from their backcourt.

Florida NCAA Tournament Predictions: Florida really has a cushy path to the Elite Eight. Their biggest obstacle will either be a Vanderbilt team the Gators are very familiar with or a Nebraska team that’s never made a Sweet 16. From there, the Gators will have their hands full with either Houston or Illinois, either of whom can match Florida’s size and talent. I don’t see a repeat.

No. 2 Seed: Houston Cougars (+210 to win South Region)

Last year’s runners-up, the Cougars will try to one more time to climb the mountain for Kelvin Sampson. Houston has made the Elite Eight in three of the past five years. This year’s group had a rare three-game losing streak in February. Other than that, they have been a vintage Cougars group that beats people with defense, toughness and a relentlessness that few opponents can handle. This Houston team is built around a stellar trio of guards, led by freshman Kingston Flemings (16.4 points per game). Mediocre outside shooting (No. 162 in 3-point shooting) could be their downfall. In their last 111 games, Houston has lost by more than five points on only four occasions. Every game they play is a battle.

Houston NCAA Tournament Predictions: Houston lost a heartbreaking 65-63 decision to Florida in last year’s national title game. I think their sole focus on meeting the Gators in the Elite Eight and making amends for last year’s defeat. I think they have it in them.

No. 3 Seed: Illinois Illini (+350)

Illinois has as much offensive firepower as any team in the country. They have four different guys that average 13.2 points or more per game. That quartet – Keaton Wagler, Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovic and Kylan Boswell – account for 57.9 points, 21.2 rebounds and 10.9 assists per game. However, Wagler is a freshman, Stojakovic is a first-year transfer, and Mirkovic is a former European pro. I’m saying that chemistry has been a year-long issue with this group. That, along with an occasional allergy to defense (which is weird because they are No. 32 in field goal defense), has held them back all season long. Illinois is just 4-5 straight up in its last nine games and they have just three wins over NCAA tournament teams since Christmas. This tournament is their last chance to put it together.

Illinois NCAA Tournament Predictions: There has been something off with this group all season long. Everyone wants to be the hero and at times they just don’t share the ball or stay connected on defense. They have the talent. But there is no way I trust this group to be cohesive enough to come out of this region.

No. 4 Seed: Nebraska Cornhuskers (+1800)

The Huskers came out barnstorming this season, opening the season 20-0 and getting to No. 5 in the country, their highest ranking ever. Fred Hoiberg’s group was just 6-6 after that, though, and their last two losses have come by 20 points (at UCLA) and 16 points (versus Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament). Nebraska has a veteran team that may have one more run in them. Center Rienk Mast and swingman Pryce Sandfort are a lethal inside-out duo, combining for 31.3 points, 10.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists each game. Nebraska desperately needs a third option to emerge (freshman Braden Frager?) if they want to be anything more than a novelty act in this region.

Nebraska NCAA Tournament Predictions: Nebraska has never won a game in the NCAA tournament in school history. They should be able to check that box off, although No. 13 seed Troy is no joke. I don’t think they have the firepower to blow past Vandy or Florida after that, though.

No. 5 Seed: Vanderbilt Commodores (+900)

Think of Vanderbilt as kind of “Alabama Lite”. The Commodores play fast and furious, running and chucking 3-pointers with abandon. They put pressure on their opposition with their constant ability to put the ball in the hole. The Commodores, led by first team All-SEC guard Tyler Tanner, average over 86 points per game and shoot a steady 35.5 percent from 3-point range. Sixth-year senior Duke Miles is back healthy and has scored 15 or more in five of his past seven games (17.0 PPG) and can carry the load when teams key on Tanner.

Vanderbilt NCAA Tournament Predictions: Vanderbilt made a run to the SEC title game in their hometown of Nashville. Now they have to square off with McNeese State, a team that sprung a first-round upset last year, in the early tip-off in Oklahoma. If Vandy doesn’t come charging out of the gate with their usual energy, then they could be first round fodder. If they survive that game, they could end up in a rematch with Florida, a team they beat by 17 last weekend.

No. 6 Seed: North Carolina Tar Heels (+6600)

North Carolina’s dreams of March glory ended the minute that freshman Caleb Wilson’s season ended due to a thumb injury. They aren’t a complete pushover without him, though. UNC beat Clemson and Louisville without Wilson and played Duke tough for a half. Seven-footer Henri Veesar averages 16.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and shoots 42 percent from 3-point range. Senior Seth Trimble, who also missed significant time (nine games) this season, is capable of stepping him game up as well. He scored 30 in that win over Louisville.

North Carolina Tournament Predictions: The public already has North Carolina fit for a first-round toe tag, with VCU a popular upset pick. I don’t think so. I think perpetually under siege head coach Hubert Davis can avoid that embarrassment. But the Heels would’ve had their hands full with Illinois even if the Heels had a healthy Wilson.

Best first-round match up: No. 6 North Carolina (-2.5) vs. No. 11 VCU

VCU has been on a two-month tear, winning 16 of their final 17 games en route to the Atlantic 10 tournament title. First-year head coach Phil Martelli Jr. led Bryant to the NCAA tournament last year. He has a lot more firepower this time around. VCU hasn’t won a tournament game since 2016, going 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four appearances. The Rams are a much better shooting team than the Tar Heels. And if UNC’s No. 210 ranked 3-point defense isn’t up to par then the Rams could shoot their way past an ACC opponent.

Best potential second-round match up: No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt

It would be a great story for either one of these perennial also-rans to make it to the Sweet 16. That doesn’t mean that a matchup between them wouldn’t be a knife fight, though. Nebraska has an elite perimeter defense (No. 15 in 3-point defense) and holds opponents to just 29.8 percent from deep. Vanderbilt wants to play fast and score. Nebraska wants to slow things down and battle. The Huskers beat a Wisconsin team that plays a similar style to Vandy, 90-60. But the Commodores also pasted a St. Mary’s team that is built like Nebraska, 96-71. The team that controls the tempo would march on in this potential matchup.

Upset Alert (first round): No. 4 Nebraska (-13) vs. No. 13 Troy

This is back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances for Scott Cross and his Trojans. Troy lost to Kentucky by 19 points in last year’s first round. They are a significantly better offensive team this season and their 83.7 points per game is the most ever from a Cross-coached squad. Troy beat San Diego State on the road in November and then turned around and took USC to triple-OT in the next game. They beat a good Akron team by 10 this year and stayed within 20 of Houston, Oregon and Arkansas last year. The Trojans won’t be intimidated by Nebraska at all.

Upset Alert (second round): No. 4 Nebraska vs. No. 5 Vanderbilt

To be completely honest: I don’t see a ton of upsets taking place in the second round of this bracket. Florida, Houston and Illinois are all head and shoulders above their competition. That would leave this game – a situation where Vanderbilt may even enter the contest as a favorite - as one of the few lower seeds I would anticipate moving on.

Dark Horse team: No. 3 Illinois

I’m firmly on record as saying that I don’t believe that all four brackets are going to go chalk with a No. 1 or No. 2 seed coming out of all four regions. So, as I look in the South, Illinois is the team with the most tools and most talent to take out Florida and Houston.

Team That Makes Me Nervous: No. 4 Nebraska

I like this team. I want to like them even more. Mast is a do-it-all stud. This team won at Illinois, beat Michigan State, and nearly beat Michigan (75-72) on the road without Mast. They’re good! But Nebraska also played the No. 319 nonconference schedule in the country and the program is 0-8 in its history in the NCAA tournament. They are good enough to make a run. I just don’t think they will. That makes them the kind of boom-or-bust team that can ruin (or redeem) a bracket.

2026 South Region Predictions: I just think that the top three teams in this region are head and shoulders above the rest of the pack. How can I resolve that with my opening belief that there will indeed be enough madness in this March tournament to match historical norms? Well, I would say to keep an eye out for some “shocking” upsets on Day 1. But when the dust settles, I really would be stunned if anyone but Florida, Houston or Illinois emerged from this group.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions: South Region

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