2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions: Midwest Region

by Robert Ferringo - 3/18/2026

March Madness bracket predictions Midwest Region Nate Ament Tennessee

The Midwest Region feels like a place where The $#it Is About To Go Down.

There are simply too many teams that look shakier and shakier the deeper you analyze them. Maybe a team’s rotation has been blown up by injury (or an FBI-led marijuana bust). Maybe a team’s coach, with a history of March failure, is just waiting to do something stupid to cost his team. Or maybe, just maybe, another team is just a fraud to begin with and is about to get exposed.

Whatever the weakness, the Midwest is full of teams that are ticking time bombs. And when they go off over the next 96 hours, there will be brackets blown to bits lying on floors across the country.

So, yeah, you can pencil in your chalk if you want. Pretend this is predictable. Pretend the better team always wins. But if you’ve been around this tournament long enough - if you’ve got the scars - you already know what’s coming.

Doc’s Sports offers college basketball expert picks for every game on our NCAA basketball predictions page.

Here are Doc’s Sports March Madness bracket predictions for the Midwest Region:

No. 1 Seed: Michigan Wolverines (-120 to win Midwest Region)

The Wolverines were the best team in one of the best conferences in America and have a staple of the Top 5 since December. They are the No. 3 overall seed in the tournament and +400 to win the national championship. The Wolverines have laid waste to their opponents this year, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 19.5 points per game and winning nine games by 25 or more points. They are in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and lost just two regular season games (to Wisconsin and Duke) by a combined total of eight points. The books have caught up to the Wolverines, though. Michigan is on an 0-5 ATS slide, including 0-3 ATS in the Big Ten tournament, and they are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.

Michigan NCAA Tournament Predictions: The Wolverines are in the second-toughest bracket in the tournament. A Sweet 16 date with Alabama would be tricky and a potential showdown with Iowa State in the Elite Eight could be one of the best games of the tournament.

No. 2 Seed: Iowa State Cyclones (+300)

This is the third straight season and T.J. Otzelberger’s Cyclones have been a top three seed in their region. Could this be the year they finally break through and make the Final Four? The Cyclones started the year 16-0, with wins over St. John’s and Purdue along the way, and Iowa State is one of the most efficient and experienced teams in the country. Tamin Lipsey and Milan Momcilovic have been starters on all three tournament teams, combining to average 30.4 points and 5.9 assists per game. Momcilovic, who shot 50 percent from 3-point range this season, is the team’s leading scorer. But Josh Jefferson (16.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 4.9 APG) is the team’s best all-around player. The Cyclones are just 4-4 straight up in their last eight games, though, and you have to wonder if the veterans have one last push in them.

Iowa State NCAA Tournament Predictions: Iowa State was a No. 2 seed in the 2024 tournament and fell in the Sweet 16 and last year they failed to survive the opening weekend as a No. 3 seed. They have been solid at the window in March the past three seasons, though, going 10-3 ATS in conference and NCAA tournament games combined.

No. 3 Seed: Virginia Cavaliers (+775)

Virginia has superseded any expectations that new head coach Ryan Odom brought into his first season. The Cavaliers have won 29 of 34 games and Duke (twice), North Carolina and rival Virginia Tech (in triple overtime) are the only teams to beat the Cavaliers since Thanksgiving. Thijs De Ridder is a 23-year-old Belgian professional and one of the top “freshmen” in the ACC. He leads a team that routinely goes nine-deep and defends for days. Virginia held their opponents below 40 percent from the field (39.5%, No. 12 in the nation). The Cavs do get a bit over reliant on the 3-point shot, though, with 47 percent of their offense coming from behind the arc. That could make them a boom or bust proposition.

Virginia NCAA Tournament Predictions: You should always be wary of teams that were unranked to start the season but play their way into a top four seed. These guys haven’t proven that they can beat good competition and they are not a realistic option to win the region.

No. 4 Seed: Alabama Crimson Tide (+1400)

Nate Oats is in his seventh season in Tuscaloosa and has guided the Crimson Tide to their sixth straight NCAA tournament appearance. At this point we know exactly who Alabama is. They score and score and score some more, with defense being optional along the way. Alabama has been in the Top 11 in pace in six of Oats’ seven years here (they were No. 14 the other season) and the Crimson Tide won’t slow down for anyone. Second-leading scorer Aden Holloway was busted for felony possession this week, robbing Alabama of their best shooter and, presumably, a hell of a high. It remains to be seen how the Crimson Tide players will respond.

Alabama NCAA Tournament Predictions: Are other players wrapped up in Holloway’s issues? If so, then I would expect a distracted team and a short stay. If not, then these guys still have more than enough scoring capability to blast their way to the second round.

No. 5 Seed: Texas Tech Red Raiders (+2000)

Texas Tech’s national title dreams were crushed when first team All-American J.T. Toppin tore his ACL in mid-February. Texas Tech, which has wins over No. 1 seeds Duke and Arizona this season, fought admirably after losing Toppin, winning three straight games. They have come back to earth since, though, losing their last three. Also, second team All-American Christian Anderson dealt with a calf strain at last week’s Big 12 tournament. He is going to play this week but may not be 100 percent. If anything happens to Anderson, this team is done. Even with him, I don’t think they are good enough for a deep tournament run.

Texas Tech Tournament Predictions: The 5-12 upset is one of the most popular and reoccurring in NCAA tournament history. This banged up Tech team is going to be a popular pick to fall in its opener to Akron. Even if they don’t, I don’t know that the Red Raiders can withstand Alabama in Round 2.

No. 6 Seed: Tennessee Volunteers (+1600)

When it comes to the NCAA tournament, Rick Barnes is one of March’s biggest losers. Barnes has lost four of his last six tournament games outright and his teams are just 6-11 against the spread dating back to 2019. In true Barnes form, Tennessee has been weaker than the sum of its parts all season long. Freshman Nate Ament is a stud and will be a lottery pick this summer. Ja’Kobi Gillespie is a first team All-SEC performer. And there is size and athleticism up and down the roster.

Tennessee Tournament Predictions: The Volunteers will take on either SMU or Miami-OH in the first round. Tennessee will be a significant favorite against either. But one of the First Four participants has also won its first-round game in 12 of the past 14 years.

Best first-round match up: No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 St. Louis

I’m glad this game is one of the late tip-offs on Thursday night because it is going to be a lot of fun. Both Georgia and St. Louis run and gun, with Georgia averaging 90.4 points per game (No. 6) and St. Louis 87.8 each night (No. 15). Robbie Avila is a unique player for the Billikens, while the backcourt of Jeremiah Wilkinson and Blue Cain do a bit of everything for the Bulldogs. Georgia got bombed by Gonzaga last year as a No. 9 seed. We’ll see if they took any lessons away from that game that can help them advance here.

Best potential second-round matchup: No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 5 Texas Tech

A lot of ink will be spilled talking about the players that are not available for this game (Holloway, Toppin). But there is still plenty of talent left on both rosters. Anderson and Philon combine to average over 40 points and 12 assists per game so there won’t be a shortage of offense. Yes, both teams have seen their ceilings lower with the loss of two quality players. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t enough left over to provide one of Round 2’s best games.

Upset Alert (first round): No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 12 Akron

I touched on this before. If Anderson isn’t at 100 percent then the Red Raiders are beat. Akron is in the NCAA tournament for the third straight season. They were a sexy upset pick each of the past two years – but threw up on themselves both times, losing by 17 and 28 points. Is the third time a charm for John Groce’s squad? Akron has won 19 of its last 20 games. They are small, with only one regular taller than 6-6, but are also relentless and feature a host of superb seniors.

Upset Alert (second round): No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 6 Tennessee

I’ve already discussed why this Virginia team is overseeded. They aren’t nearly one of the best 12 teams in the nation and Tennessee consistently faced better competition in SEC play this year. Virginia big men Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyenso, who combined to lead UVA to the No. 2 block rate in the country, will have their hands full with the rugged post players that Tennessee brings to this one. How this game is officiated could go a long way to determining who advances.

Dark Horse team: No. 4 Alabama

I had Alabama pegged as my dark horse team before the Holloway news broke. I thought about it. And I still believe that the Crimson Tide have dark horse potential. Now even more so, given that the general public is writing them off. Holloway was good. He wasn’t irreplaceable. Alabama still has four other guys that average over 11 points per game. And backup guard Houston Mallette averaged 14.7 points per game at Pepperdine before transferring to Alabama and he’s shot 38.6 percent from 3-point range the past three years. Call me crazy, but I think Alabama is going to be fine and could still throw a scare into Michigan in the Sweet 16.

Team That Makes Me Nervous: No. 6 Tennessee

There is talent here. Tennessee was good enough to beat teams like Houston, Louisville, Alabama and Vanderbilt. They also lost to Syracuse and blew more double-digit leads than anyone cares to mention. Barnes is a terrible tournament coach. He always has been. But I can’t but feel that there is enough talent here for the Vols to find their way into the second weekend.

2026 Midwest Region Predictions: Prior to Holloway’s arrest and suspension, Alabama was lurking as a potential X-factor in this region. Now I think that Michigan has a much clearer path to the Elite Eight. I also think that Iowa State should be fine to meet them there, with Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia all lacking the quality to take down the Cyclones on Iowa State’s best day. I know that’s a chalky prediction – the No. 1 seed vs. the No. 2 – but I just think those two teams are head and shoulders above the rest of this group.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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Start:	March 19, 2026 @ 11:45 PM
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2026 March Madness Bracket Predictions: Midwest Region

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