March Madness Bracket Help: Finding First Round Upsets

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/18/2026

With March Madness on the doorstep, now is the best time to figure out how to pick out some big first round upsets. While there is no perfect science for predicting an upset, there are some key variables to track that certainly can fuel a potential upset. We all know how valuable veteran guards are in the tournament, as well as using our invaluable eye test, but there are key predictors that can further boost our chances of striking gold with that strong first round upset. With some interesting underdogs like VCU, Santa Clara, Iowa, Hawai’i, and High Point putting teams on upset alert, we must carefully select which upset bid is legitimate. Here are some key predictors of a potential first round upset.

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Find a Flaw

This is an obvious variable that is often overlooked. If a team has a clear weakness, it can be exploited by a hungry underdog team even if they do not belong to a power conference. If a top-seeded team is strong in everything but defending the arc and free throw shooting, then a mid-major that is capable, will spread the floor, get their best three-point shooting players plenty of time and space, and while also playing aggressive defense to try and create that extra turnover, knowing they will not get burned at the line. Perhaps the biggest example of this was in 2018 when we had the historic upset of the 1-Seeded Virginia Cavaliers when they were knocked off by the 16-Seeded UMBC Retrievers. While Virginia would win 9/10 games, they lost the initial one due to their slow pacing. Their game was to slow it down, and cash in on consistency. That didn’t happen, UMBC came out of the gates hot, established themselves early, and did not let up and Virginia wasn’t built for shootouts.

This season, we have a few higher rated teams with some flaws. Wisconsin might be the most ‘wishy-washy’ team out there. Their perimeter performance is what makes or breaks their games. For example, their three worst losses came against USC, TCU, and Oregon. In those three-games they shot a combined 27.3% from beyond the arc while their opponents shot 43% from deep in those games. The Badgers are set to face High Point this season, and that might be a matchup problem as the Panthers average 90 PPG, shoot over 35% from deep, limit opponents to just 31.7% from beyond the arc, and execute nearly 11 SPG. Other examples for teams with a flaw include Kentucky’s inconsistency, North Carolina’s ability to rebound without Caleb Wilson, St. John’s one-dimensional offense, and Arkansas soft defense.

Underdog Must Have Something

The chances become even greater if the underdog squad has strength to stand on. If a mid-major squad is capable of forcing turnovers and creating second chance opportunities, and they are set to face a strong seeded power conference team that tends to start slow and struggle on the boards, that may point to an upset bid. It is all a matchup game here for the first round upset, but this is why we examine the teams we have not watched this season. They have something to offer, most of the time. In March Madness, the upset bids come from teams with strong ball security, an unusual three-point volume, a slow pace with a strong defense, and that elite guard play. A great example of this was in 2024 when James Madison knocked off Wisconsin. The Dukes forced 19 turnovers, adding 27 points off turnovers, while limiting the Badgers to just 37% shooting. The aggressive defense of James Madison put Wisconsin in a bind they were not able to get out of, even in a Sun Belt vs Big 10 matchup.

This season there are quite a bit of teams that showcase some elite strengths. High Point has one of the best offensive schemes in the field, Hofstra has that highly sought after elite guard play against a now weakened Alabama team, VCU slows the game down and strikes hard with their guards, Santa Clara has one of the highest rated offenses in the nation and can overwhelm Kentucky, and Iowa has one of the best players in the country in Bennett Stirtz who helps run a slow game and a suffocating defense.

Injuries

Another big predictor for upset bids are injuries. As injury to a player who fills the stat sheets or plays valuable minutes could derail a team’s chance of a deep run, and fuel upset bids. This year’s tournament feels like a year where the injury bug causes some big scares and potential upsets. Wilson is a big loss for the Tar Heels as he is the team’s leading scorer, rebounder, and he has the second highest FG% on the team. Since his injury, the UNC offense is considerably weaker, which led to an early ACC Tournament exit and some other big losses to rivals North Carolina State and Duke. VCU has a chance to capitalize on this injury in the first round. Another example of this is JT Toppin for Texas Tech. With Toppin, the Red Raiders were viewed as a potential Final Four squad. He averaged a double-double and the Red Raiders have faltered in important games since his absence, most notably losing their last three games. The teams second leading scorer in Christian Anderson is also recovering from a groin strain, adding some more uncertainty. If that injury lingers and hinders Anderson or Donovan Atwell has an off day, the Akron Zips may zip right on past the Red Raiders in the first round.

While there is no perfect science, there are some variables to note ahead of picking some first-round upsets, and this year there are no shortages of flaws, injuries, and elite level play from the mid-major representatives. Expect chaos.

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Start:	March 19, 2026 @ 11:45 PM
Expert:	Griffin Murphy
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March Madness Bracket Help: Finding First Round Upsets

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