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2026 March Madness Final Four Best Bets and Expert Betting Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 4/1/2026

March Madness Final Four best bets Brayden Burries Arizona Wildcats

The March Madness bracket has shrunk from 68 teams down to four, with each of the region champions set to face off this weekend with the National Championship on the line. Michigan, Arizona, Illinois, and UConn all won four straight tournament games to reach this stage of the competition, and all have a legitimate shot at cutting down the nets on Monday night. All four teams still have plus-money odds. However, before they get to the National Championship, they must first survive a tantalizing pair of Final Four matchups. 

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Arizona (+1.5, +100) vs Michigan (-1.5, -120)

Arizona and Michigan face off as the two National Championship favorites in the Final Four. Both teams will be favored in the title game if they get past this test, as they buckle up for the hardest game of their season. Michigan has yet to find itself in a close game this tournament, winning all four previous games by double digits, including a 33-point beatdown of Tennessee in the Elite Eight. Meanwhile, Arizona has also made it look easy with four double-digit wins, extending its win streak to 13 games. Both teams are top-15 in both offensive and defensive ratings this season; they have plenty of stars on both ends of the court and are poised to deliver an action-packed Final Four matchup. 

Why Arizona Can Win:

Arizona has a balanced offense with five double-digit scorers, and they pair that with a hungry mindset on the offensive glass. Brayden Burries leads the way with 16.1 PPG and is shooting a very efficient 40.2% from behind the arc. Burries is tough to slow down once he finds open floor and isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty down low either. On defense, Burries leads the team with 1.5 steals per game. While his impact on both ends of the court can be felt, he is far from alone. If Michigan doubles him up, Koa Peat plays with a similar tenacity on offense. He isn’t as efficient from deep but is better at finishing in and around the painted area. 

Once you couple that with the towering Motiejus Krivas, it isn’t hard to see why Arizona consistently runs up the score on offense. The 7-foot-2 Lithuanian center can clean up easy baskets on the inside and will crash the offensive glass on nearly every possession. Michigan does a good job at boxing out, but extra possessions for this Arizona offense are a recipe for success. Arizona is also much safer with the ball on offense, as Michigan frequently turns it over, while it doesn’t generate many steals. If they can match the Wolverines' efficiency on offense, the extra scoring chances will make this their game to lose. 

Why Michigan Can Win:
While Arizona has a balanced offense, sometimes one player taking over the game is enough to win. Yaxel Lendeborg did exactly that all tournament long. After only averaging 15.2 PPG in the regular season, Lendeborg has scored 23+ points in each of his last three tournament games, going 27-for-44 from the floor. He has stepped up when Michigan needed him most and will need to put on another dominat performance in this matchup. Lendeborg can shoot it from deep, he can score from the inside, and he drains more than 80% of his attempts from the free-throw line. 

Lendeborg is crucial for the Michigan offense, but their defense will determine if they win this game. Arizona has looked impossible to slow down so far, but the Michigan defense has looked completely impenetrable at the same time. Aday Mara is one of the best rim protectors in collegiate sports, allowing Michigan to shift to a zone defense with him patrolling the paint. Mara is averaging 2.6 blocks per game this year, but that doesn’t even tell the full story, as his defensive presence alone forces teams to adjust their offense. Michigan has the defensive edge, the primary scorer needed to take over, and if one of their role players can step up, they will earn a chance to play for the National Championship. 

Arizona vs. Michigan Prediction:
Neither of these teams has found themselves in a close game yet, but that trend is expected to end here. This is a razor-thin game with a 1.5-point spread, but the wrong team is favored as we will tail the Arizona moneyline at +100 odds. Michigan has a solid defense, but Arizona’s balanced attack will allow them to exploit the weak spot of their zone defense. They will almost certainly get extra possessions through their rebounding, turnover, and steal edges, and have been excellent at getting everyone involved on offense. Michigan has the defense built to slow down takeover stars, but that isn’t how Arizona finds success. With three players expected to get drafted in the early-to-middle first round next year, Arizona will ride whoever has the hot hand to win this matchup. 

Pick: Arizona Moneyline +100

Illinois (-2.5, -130) vs. UConn (+2.5, +110)

Illinois and UConn both overcame the odds to reach the Final Four of March Madness. Unlike the pair of No. 1 seeds in the other matchup, UConn and Illinois were ranked No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. Their path to this game wasn’t always smooth sailing, as UConn survived an early scare against Furman in the first round. They edged out Michigan State by four points in the Sweet Sixteen before putting on a comeback for the ages in the Elite Eight, taking down Duke after trailing by 19 points, including a game-winning three in the final second of play. For Illinois, all four of their wins came by 10+ points, as they have ridden hot offensive starts and strong defensive finishes to the Final Four. 

Why UConn Can Win:
Why won’t this team win? UConn pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in March Madness history over Duke, fueled by defensive stops in the final frame. The Huskies have gone on to win the National Championship in six of their previous seven Final Four appearances and have the roster needed to do so again. 

UConn moves the ball well on offense with the fourth-most assists in the country, and they will look to take advantage of a susceptible Illinois defense. The Fighting Illini have a subpar defense that they make up for with offensive grit, something UConn will look to exploit. Tarris Reed Jr. kept UConn in the game with a strong first half against Duke and has been the steady hand for this offense when things start falling apart. He can often generate high percentage looks down low, and while his lack of floor spacing comes with its own concerns, he is a very effective weapon on both ends of the court. Silas Demary Jr. made crucial defensive plays to keep his team alive last week, but his primary role will be facilitating this offense. Reed Jr. won’t be able to bully his way into the paint with the Ivisic brother patrolling the area for Illinois, and the offensive responsibility will fall on Demary Jr. He has been able to navigate those expectations so far, often making the right decision on where to pass or if he should go to the hoop himself. 

Why Illinois Can Win:
Illinois’ offense is the best in the country. Keaton Wagler is a capable scorer at all three levels; they have five players averaging 10+ PPG this season, and there are very few flaws in how they attack. Wagler will generate his own offense from anywhere on the court, but also keeps his head up to find the open man if the double team comes. His 40.7% clip from behind the arc forces defenders to stay close, but he can also blow right by them and go deep into his finishing package at the rim. However, Illinois’ chances will be determined by how he defends. His 0.9 steals per game lead the team, but Wagler is far from a defensive menace at this stage of the tournament. Illinois has gotten away with leaving shooters open in the earlier rounds and hasn’t been punished, but it is hard to envision that trend continuing against a deep team like UConn. Illinois has been able to outscore its defensive issues in the past, and there is no reason to expect that trend to suddenly stop. Even if their opponent positively regresses back to the mean, Illinois has the firepower needed to retaliate. 

Illinois vs UConn Prediction:
This is a very intriguing matchup between two sides punching above their weight class, but I don’t know how you can overlook UConn in the underdog role. The +2.5 point spread gives us a bit of cushion in a close game, but this is one they will win more often than not. UConn has the belief to never give up after their massive comeback, and they have the talent on the court to make a National Championship a reality. They have a long history of winning once they reach this stage of the tournament, and coach Dan Hurley knows how to get his troops ready for battle. Illinois has a mediocre defensive unit that often gets bailed out by its offense, but that will not work against a team like UConn. The Huskies will get one step closer to another championship on the back of strong defensive play and consistent offense to keep up with the high-flying Illinois.

Pick: UConn (+2.5)

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