Sports Betting Insights: Betting on NCAA Final Four Futures and Props
by Dave Schwab - 4/2/2014
This year's NCAA Men's Tournament is down to this Saturday's Final Four, and to add even more action to all the excitement Sportsbook.ag has released a number of futures odds and prop bets surrounding the outcome of these two games.
The Florida Gators started this tournament as not only the No. 1-ranked team in the country but the top overall seed playing out of the South Region. The odds they go and win this tournament have been set at -120 . After rolling through the first four rounds with double-digit victories, there is nothing that tells me they will fail to seal the deal with a win over Connecticut on Saturday and a win on Monday night over either Kentucky or Wisconsin. The Wildcats have the next best odds at +280 followed by the Badgers at +400 and the Huskies at +700.
One of the more popular player props to wager on is the Most Outstanding Player award. Before the start of the Sweet 16 this past Thursday, Florida's Scottie Wilbekin was opened as a +700 favorite to win this award. With much of the competition from Louisville and Michigan State now watching the games on TV, his odds have dropped to +150 heading into the Final Four. His teammate Michael Frazier could be a solid play at +500 if puts up two monster performances in the team's next two games, and a third Florida player, Casey Prather, is on the board at +600.
While I fully realize that I did pick Florida to win it all, I am still going think outside of the box on this one and recommend a small play on Connecticut's Shabazz Napier at +800. If the Huskies do go on and upset the Gators this Saturday and keep the run going all the way to a national title, you can rest assured that Napier will have just played the two best games of his college career.
NCAA Final Four Betting Odds
The actual betting odds for Saturday's Final Four matchups have Florida favored by six points over Connecticut in the first game, with the total set at 127. Kentucky has been opened as a two-point favorite in its showdown against Wisconsin, and the total has been set at 139.5.
The two plays that intrigue me the most for these two games are actually on the total line. First, I am going with the "under" in the Connecticut vs. Florida game. The total has stayed under in 14 of the Huskies last 18 games overall. It has also stayed under in 12 of their last 17 nonconference games and in five of their last games against the SEC.
The total has stayed under in five of the Gators last seven games and in seven of their last 10 games played outside the conference. It has also stayed under in five of their last seven games played at a neutral site. The total even stayed under a 131-point closing line earlier this season when the Huskies beat Florida 65-64.
I am going to follow suit in the next game, but with a smaller play on the under. Kentucky's recent trends are not nearly as convincing, with the total going "over" in its last three games, but the total has stayed under in eight of the Badgers last 11 games played at a neutral site. It has also stayed under in three of the four games they already played in this tournament and in five of their last six games against a team from the SEC. This Saturday's matchup sets itself up as a defensive grinder between each team's big men that could easily be won or lost on the boards
Read more articles by Dave Schwab
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