Anothertwistafate Odds to Win the 2019 Preakness Stakes with Picks and Predictions
Anothertwistafate is a nice enough horse but not one that you would generally pay a ton of attention to during Triple Crown season or the preps that lead to it. But for one big reason, which we'll touch on in a bit, he's a sentimental choice in the Preakness for people, like me, who have an obsession with the Triple Crown that borders on crazy. Can sentimentality come through when it matters in the Preakness this year?
Last race: The colt was short on Kentucky Derby points, so he headed to the Lexington Stakes knowing that a win would certainly get him into the big race. As it turned out, he fell short. He faced serious contact early, was boxed in too often, and wound up finishing second behind Owendale, who he is on track to face again here in the Preakness. He wound up with 38 points, which is typically more than enough to make the Derby, but the parity of this season raised the floor for Derby qualification. In the end he was the second horse out, having the same number of points as Signalman, but less graded stakes earnings, which is the tiebreaker.
Prior experience: The colt was fairly late to debut, appearing for the first time in November at Santa Anita. And it was a disaster. He struggled at the start, never recovered, and finished ninth by about 2,000 lengths. A month later he was moved up to Northern California, and that lesser level of competition at Golden Gate suited him. He won his maiden handily, won an allowance in early January, and cruised in the El Camino Real, a Derby prep that would rank as one of the least significant. All three of those wins, while impressive, were on a lesser track and a synthetic surface - which so far seems to clearly be his preferred surface. He moved on next to the Sunland Derby, finishing a tight second to Derby also-ran Cutting Humor.
Trainer: Blaine Wright is a competent trainer in Northern California and Washington, but he has only rarely ventured beyond those regions. He has won six graded stakes over his career with two horses. Most notably, four of those wins came with Alert Bay from 2015 to 2017, with two of the four coming at Santa Anita. Alert Bay, incidentally, was a gamer of a gelding - he ran as recently as this past winter when he was seven. This is a whole new level of competition for him, and it remains for him to prove that he is up to it.
Jockey: Jose Ortiz. This horse has had a whole new level of rider the last two times out, with Javier Castellano aboard last time, and now Ortiz. Ortiz, the nation's top rider in 2017, currently sits third nationally in earnings - two spots behind brother Irad, who is on Bourbon War in the Preakness. Ortiz has not won the Preakness yet, but he did win the Belmont in 2017 with Tapwrit and was second in both the Derby and the Belmont last year - on two different horses. You can't do much better than Ortiz.
Breeding: Here's the reason why I want to love this horse much more than his performance suggests. He is a member of the last crop of Scat Daddy. The 2007 Florida Derby winner died far too young at 11 last year, but not before giving us last year's Triple Crown hero, Justify. The sky was the limit for Scat Daddy as a sire, and this is our last chance to see success on this stage. After this all we can do is wait for Justify's babies to hit the track, and that's a few years off. Scat Daddy is a son of Johannesburg, who is best known on the track for remarkably being named two-year-old champion in both Europe and the U.S. in 2001. He was an unthreatening eighth in the Derby. Anothertwistafate's damsire is First Defence, a Grade 1 winning sprinter who is a son of Unbridled's Song, who is best known for being favored in the Derby while finishing fifth in 1996, and for siring many greats including the legend Arrogate.
Odds: At +1000 at BetOnline he sits as the fifth choice in the potential field of 11 horses. He is behind the two solid favorites who come from the Derby - Improbable and War of Will, and also local hope Alwaysmining and Bourbon War.
Can Anothertwistafate Win the 2019 Preakness Stakes?: My heart really wants him to - to give his dad one last big win. But he's going to have his very best day, and he's going to need some help. The addition of Ortiz is a confidence booster as well.
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Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
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