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2026 World Cup Soccer Golden Boot Odds and Betting Predictions for Top Goalscorer

by Spencer Toth - 1/14/2026

World Cup soccer Golden Boot odds and predictions Christian Pulisic USA

The Golden Boot is one of the most exciting betting markets to attack every four years at the FIFA World Cup. Not only are you betting on your chosen player to find the back of the net, but you are also betting on their nation to make a deep run in the tournament. The eventual winner has collected between 5 and 8 goals in each of the last 11 World Cups, but this year’s tournament could see that total eclipsed. The expanded 48-team format means that not only will there be an additional round of knockout stage games, but the competition in the group stage will be easier. This adds an extra twist to betting on the Golden Boot winner, which we will keep in mind when making our picks. Six players have odds of +2000 or shorter, with familiar names at the top of the list. We will take a look at those six and evaluate whether or not they have any value at their current odds, while sprinkling in a few sleepers that come with a potentially huge payout. 

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Kylian Mbappe (France): +650

Kylian Mbappe is the outright favorite to win the Golden Boot, matching France’s +650 odds to win the World Cup. Mbappe won the Golden Boot in Qatar with eight goals four years ago, edging out Lionel Messi’s seven tallies. A hat trick in the World Cup Final gave him the award, and the 27-year-old is now in his prime. However, there are two factors that have us looking elsewhere for the 2026 edition of the tournament. First, is that France has other proven goal scorers that will also be looking to score themselves. It won’t be a steady stream of balls straight into Mbappe, as Ousmane Dembele (+2100), Michael Olise (+4000), Hugo Ekitike (+5000), and Desire Doue (+5000) will all be at the forefront of the French attack. Second, France has a difficult group that won’t allow them to run up the score very often. The group stage games offer a great opportunity for the frontmen to rack up goals, but matchups against Norway, Austria, and one of Bolivia, Suriname, or Iraq will be difficult for France. With those factors in mind, and the wide-open nature of the tournament, the outright favorite will have to be a pass. 

Verdict: Pass

Harry Kane (England): +750

Harry Kane is the textbook definition of a poacher, and his nation is as ready as ever to contend for the World Cup. Bukayo Saka is the only other Englishman who can consistently score on the international stage, meaning Kane won’t have too much competition in the box, penalties, or otherwise. England has +600 odds to win the World Cup, and Kane should have Golden Boot odds closer to that number. He scored nine goals in eight games in World Cup qualifying, as England won all eight matches without conceding a single goal. While he was held off the scoresheet in the group stage in 2022, England's group featuring Panama, Ghana, and Croatia will offer plenty of goalscoring chances. This is obviously a bet on England as much as it is a bet on Kane, but as long as the Three Lions can at least reach the semi-finals, this is his award to lose. 

Verdict: Value at +750

Lionel Messi (Argentina): +1400

Lionel Messi had his dream World Cup in 2022, but things will not be as easy this time around. Argentina has a much weaker squad in 2026, and even a subpar Group I won’t offer enough opportunities for Messi to get on the scoresheet. The forward options for Argentina are full of players who have successful careers in Europe, and it remains to be seen if Messi will even be the talisman after a slow season in the MLS. This will be a very popular pick among Argentines, Americans, and pretty much everyone in the world, which has inflated this line far too high. Some players can continue to thrive into their late 30s, but Messi’s style will prevent him from doing so after his 39th birthday this June. This feels like a transition era for Argentina, too, making it far from a guarantee that they go on a deep tournament run. There are better options with more upside further down the list. 

Verdict: Pass

Erling Haaland (Norway): +1600

Erling Haaland is the best scorer in the world, and that has been true for the better part of the last decade. The Norwegian superstar is unlikely to make a trip to the World Cup Final, but he will rack up goals in the early stages of the tournament with incredible efficiency. He has scored 55 goals in 48 games for Norway since 2019, and has 105 goals in 118 games for Manchester City since 2022. His consistency in front of goal has him running away with the Golden Boot award in the Premier League, and he has no problem with running up the score against inferior nations. Norway’s inclusion with France is worrisome, but Haaland can easily score a hat trick, or more against their other group mates. He is Norway’s only scoring option, and with Martin Odegaard finding his form in midfield, there will be no shortage of service up to Haaland. Odds like these for the best scorer in the world don’t come around often, making this one a no-brainer. 

Verdict: Value at +1600

Lamine Yamal (Spain): +1800

Lamine Yamal isn’t a pure goalscorer, and I am a bit confused as to why his odds are in the same region as the other top dogs. Yamal only has 6 goals in 23 games for Spain, and 21 goals in 88 games for FC Barcelona. His impact on the field is noticeable, but the goals will be spread around among several players for the tournament favorites. Spain has +450 odds to win the World Cup, and will likely go on a deep run, but that doesn’t mean the Golden Boot winner is on this roster. Mikel Merino (+3300), Mikel Oyarzabal (+3300), and Ferran Torres (+5000) are all much more of an out-and-out striker than Yamal is. Yamal is the best player on the team and the most popular, but these odds don’t accurately reflect how often he actually gets on the scoresheet. 

Verdict: Pass

Christiano Ronaldo (Portugal): +2000

At first glance, it is surprising to see Cristiano Ronaldo near the top of this list. While he is the most prolific goal scorer of all-time, the soon-to-be 41-year-old is far past his prime. What works in Ronaldo’s favor is that he will always be on penalties, Portugal doesn’t have too much competition in the striker position, and the rest of the squad has vastly improved over the last decade. Ronaldo has inspired the next generation of Portuguese superstars, and will now reap the benefits himself in the twilight of his career. Portugal has +1100 odds to win the World Cup, and it is impossible to imagine anyone other than Ronaldo claiming this award if his team goes all the way to the Finals. 

Verdict: Value at +2000

While these next three players have longer odds, they all have a reasonable shot at winning the Golden Boot. We have seen longshots like James Rodriguez in 2014 win it in the past, making this trio worth a few dollars at odds like these. 

Vinicius Junior (Brazil): +2500

Brazil has +800 odds to win the tournament, and Vinicius Junior is their best goalscorer. That is a recipe for success at odds like these, even if Vinicius Junior isn’t a traditional striker. The fast feet for Brazil will leave opponents tempted to bite in the penalty area, and Vinicius Junior has solidified himself as the penalty taker. If Brazil goes on a deep run, which the odds say is a real possibility, Vinicius Junior will have enough chances in front of goal to finish at or near the top of the goalscoring list. 

Romelu Lukaku (Belgium): +4000

Romelu Lukaku finished third in the Golden Boot race in 2018 and has the chance to be right at the top of the list this time around. The ‘Golden Generation’ of Belgian superstars has all but retired, leaving Lukaku as the last man standing in attack. He had a poor World Cup in 2022, missing several clear-cut chances, but he has regained his form with Napoli this season. An easy draw with Egypt, Iran, and New Zealand could allow Lukaku to rack up the goals in the early stages. 

Christian Pulisic (United States): +8000

Pulisic has ushered in the next generation of American superstars, and there is good reason to sprinkle on him to win the Golden Boot with odds like these. Home-field advantage will be a factor, as the United States has +4000 odds to win the World Cup. The Americans have a strong defense and midfield, but lack attacking options outside of Pulisic. You shouldn’t need much convincing to sprinkle on Pulisic at +8000. 

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