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2026 World Cup Soccer Group F Expert Betting Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 5/12/2026

World Cup soccer Group F predictions Nathan Ake Netherlands

The expanded World Cup format has removed some of the intrigue of the group stage, but that is not the case in Group F. One of the ‘groups of death’ in the 2026 World Cup, Group F features the Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden, all of whom are capable of going on a deep tournament run. They are joined by Tunisia to round out the quartet, and there is plenty to play for in this group. The balanced nature ensures there are also some excellent betting opportunities, so let’s dive right into the breakdown and best bets for Group F.

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Odds to Win Group F:

Netherlands: -120

Japan: +260

Sweden: +400

Tunisia: +1200

Odds to Qualify:

Netherlands: -700

Japan: -300

Sweden: -225

Tunisia: +125

Netherlands:

The Netherlands has a long history of success at the FIFA World Cup, but they haven’t been able to lift the most illustrious trophy in sports. Of the last 13 World Cups, the Netherlands has qualified for the tournament nine times, while reaching the semifinals on five occasions and the finals three times. Always the bridesmaid but never the bride for the Dutch, and they will be hoping this is the year they can finally get over the line. In defense, the Netherlands is anchored by Premier League stars including Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Ake, and Micky van de Ven. Their trio of reliable center-backs will give them the defensive stability they need to stay competitive with the top nations in the tournament. They conceded just four goals in eight games during their undefeated qualification run, as this team looks poised to sweep aside the competition in Group F. Moving up the pitch, the Dutch side has more top-flight European quality, with Frenkie De Jong and Tijjani Reijnders anchoring the midfield. The double pivot will allow their attackers to play open football, with Xavi Simons and Cody Gakpo leading the charge. There are virtually no holes in this Netherlands lineup, as they have the top-end talent, squad depth, and a balanced mix of developing talents and experienced veterans. Anything short of seven or more points in Group F would be a real letdown for a squad bursting with talent.

Japan:

Japan qualified for their first World Cup in 1998 and have been mainstays in the tournament since, with eight straight appearances. They have yet to win a knockout stage game, having been bounced in the Round of 16 on four occasions, but they now have the squad to go along with a favorable World Cup draw to potentially change their fate. Squad depth and discipline have always been a strong suit for the Japanese national team, and they once again bring a deep team with them to North America. They don’t have any household names to wreak havoc on defensive lines, but a structured approach could see them pull off an upset or two. Wataru Endo is the captain and anchor in midfield, as the Liverpool star has developed into quite the talent for Japan. Takefusa Kubo and Kaoru Mitoma will be tasked with getting on the scoresheet, but they still aren’t truly top-end stars on the global stage. A rigid defensive line should get them into the knockout stages, but it is hard to envision a deep run for a team without any real gamechangers to lean on.

Sweden:

Sweden is back at the World Cup for their second appearance since 2006, equipped with a frightening set of attacking players. Walking in the footsteps of the legendary Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Viktor Gyokeres, and Aleksander Isak are among the premier strikers in the world. Gyokeres has put together an excellent season with Arsenal, who currently sit on top of the Premier League and are heading to the Champions League Final. Gyokeres is the perfect type of striker for this Swedish side, as he doesn’t rely on perfect service in behind, but can rather hold up play and allow his midfielders to get up the pitch. He plays complementary football alongside Isak, who is clinical in front of goal and hard to catch if he is alone in the open field. There is no doubt about Sweden’s quality going forward, but their tournament hopes hinge on their defensive play. Victor Lindelof is their most experienced defender, but he is still not getting consistent minutes with Aston Villa. They had a strong defensive record in qualifying, but it is hard to have too much confidence about their backline against the best teams in the world. Can they outscore their defensive issues? That will be the deciding factor in Group F.

Tunisia:

Tunisia is making a third straight appearance at the World Cup and its seventh all-time appearance in 2026. However, they have yet to escape the group stage and are facing another uphill battle against a trio of strong teams in Group F. They put together a dominant qualification run with nine wins and one draw to book a spot in the World Cup. They scored 22 goals without conceding a single goal in that run, and will feel confident they can turn that into something tangible this year. They lack the top-flight European players their groupmates have, but a strong defensive record could be enough to sneak into third place while claiming a potential knockout stage berth. Ellyes Skhiri from Frankfurt is the only player getting recognition, but even he would struggle to get into the starting XI of most World Cup nations.

Best Bets:

There are a few ways we can attack this group. In terms of the group winner, there is value on the Netherlands at a short price, while I could also be convinced into taking a stab with Sweden at +400. My strongest read in this group is to fade Japan, who are overvalued given its lack of top-end talent. Will Sweden’s defensive lapses cost them the group? Probably. But they should still be able to sneak past Japan and into second place.

For the first bet, we will take the Netherlands at -120. They face off against Japan to open up the tournament, and a victory there would see them claim pole position to win Group F. They currently have -105 odds to claim all three points, with Japan coming back at +260, making the group winner odds hard to justify. A win or draw for the Netherlands is -320, and as long as they avoid an opening game defeat, they should be able to claim six points against Sweden and Tunisia to take top spot. Long story short, given the order of matches and the current odds, the Netherlands at -120 is strong value.

In terms of qualification, there are a few ways we can approach this group. First of all, Tunisia to miss out on qualifying at -150 odds is fantastic. They are clearly the worst team in this group; they have never made the knockout stage before, and even if they claw into third, their lackluster offense is unlikely to get them the goal difference they need to sneak into the knockout stages. You can also take Japan to miss out on qualification at +225 odds, but considering they should beat Tunisia, and three points may be enough, I like playing it a bit safer with Tunisia to miss.

Top Pick: Netherlands to Win Group F: -120

Pick: Tunisia NOT to Qualify: -150

Predicted Group F Table:

Netherlands: 9 Points

Sweden: 4 Points

Japan: 4 Points

Tunisia: 0 Points

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