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2026 World Cup Soccer Group D Odds and Expert Betting Predictions

by Spencer Toth - 5/7/2026

World Cup soccer Group D predictions Christian Pulisic USA

The World Cup is heading back to the United States for the first time since 1994, and Group D looks to be one of the most intriguing quartets of the tournament. The American side is coming in as the favorite, but both Turkiye and Paraguay would be right to believe they have what it takes to claim top spot in Group D. Australia has been labeled a dark horse before, and is capable of taking points off any of the other three teams in the group. The World Cup group stage offers plenty of betting opportunities, so here is a breakdown of the group with the best ways to profit before the knockout stages even begin. 

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Odds to Win Group D:
United States: +105

Turkiye: +230

Paraguay: +310

Australia: +1000

Odds to Advance:
United States: -700

Turkiye: -275

Paraguay: -260

Australia: -110

United States: 

The United States has been a solid, yet not very dangerous, World Cup squad in the past, but it appears as though the current roster might be the best one yet. They finished third in the inaugural World Cup 96 years ago but have only won a single knockout stage game since, and that came back in 2002. Christian Pulisic is still the main man for the Americans, but the United States now has a sneakily deep squad to support their talisman. Pulisic didn’t fully develop into the game-changing talent he was expected to be early in his career, but he is still very dangerous in the attacking third. He’s had a solid season at AC Milan, and isn’t the only American playing top-flight European football. Weston McKennie continues to have a successful career at Juventus, and he will be joined in the midfield by Johnny Cardoso and Tyler Adams, two very capable CDMs. Back home, the MLS has grown in popularity in recent years. And while the international stars such as Lionel Messi and Heung-Min Son have a lot to do with that, the improvement among the American-born players has also been a driving force. As a host nation, the United States was placed in Pot 1 and avoided the soccer giants, giving them a real chance to not only advance to the knockout stages but do so in style by topping their group. 

Turkiye:
Turkiye has been one of the national teams to keep an eye on over the last decade, but they have frequently fallen short at the final qualifying hurdle. Despite strong EURO Cup showings, this is only Turkiye’s third World Cup appearance ever, and the first since 2002. They had a strong showing to earn the bronze medal last time they were in the World Cup, and the expectations are reasonably high for this team. Hakan Calhanoglu is Turkiye’s best player, and has been for the last decade, and this is likely his final opportunity to find success on the global stage. His free-kick accuracy is hard to match, and his ability to pull the strings in midfield will allow Turkiye to dominate possession. Another Turk to keep an eye on is Arda Guler of Real Madrid. Guler is still only 21 years old, making his World Cup debut, and has been a strong attacker for Real Madrid since he joined the club back in 2023. His link-up play with Calhanoglu has been consistent, and Guler is one of the few players willing to take on defenders in one-on-one situations. There are concerns about defending from Turkiye as a whole, but they have been able to avoid many of the dangerous attackers in the World Cup with this draw. 

Paraguay:
Paraguay is back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010, when they made a shocking quarterfinal run in South Africa. They snuck into the World Cup with the final automatic qualification spot with a sixth-place finish, allowing just one goal across their final four games in qualification. Many of the players will be making their World Cup debuts. And while Paraguay is unlikely to go on a deep run, the new World Cup format gives them a fantastic chance at qualification. Miguel Almiron is the biggest star for Paraguay after becoming an MLS champion with Atlanta United, while Omar Alderete is the only Paraguayan playing in a top European league with Sunderland. Paraguay isn’t a fluid attacking force like the other top teams in this group, but their rigid defense will allow them to stay in games until the final whistle. Paraguay may only need a few moments of brilliance to advance, and they will be liking their odds in Group D. 

Australia: 

After only making the World Cup once before 2006, Australia has now qualified for their sixth straight tournament. They are still searching for their first knockout stage victory and will be carrying momentum after a pair of 1-0 victories in the group stage last year got them into the round of 16 for the second time in their nation’s history. They ultimately fell short against the eventual champions, but now have an excellent opportunity to get another crack if they can pick up some points in Group D. Australia doesn’t have any household names left in their squad after a few veterans retired, but they do have a deep team that can compete in this group. Most of their roster plays in the A-League or in the English Championship, and a solid defensive line won’t face overwhelming pressure in a relatively lackluster group. Australia has pulled off upsets before, and they cannot be forgotten at the bottom of Group D. 

Best Bets:
There are a few ways we can attack this group. First of all, I love the value of Turkiye to win the group at +230. The United States and Turkiye both have very similar squads in terms of top-end talent, and both have deep benches to call upon if things go south. While home-field advantage could come into play, the odds on Turkiye to prevail are hard to turn down. The two sides face off in what could be a winner-take-all showdown to wrap up the group stage. And based on how the two teams match up, I will take Turkiye in the underdog role. 

For the second bet, we will turn to Paraguay’s qualification. They currently have -260 odds to qualify with +210 odds to fall short, and I am all over them to miss out on the knockout stages at +210. Are they better than Australia? Sure. Is their final group stage match a guaranteed victory? Absolutely not. Paraguay doesn’t have the attacking talents needed to take down Australia, and the nerves may set in as the Aussies have a real experience advantage. Even if Paraguay does beat Australia to claim three points, their place in the next round will still be far from secured. If they were guaranteed third place, the +210 odds would be fair for them to miss out since 8/12 third-place teams advance. However, I think it is much more likely they finish fourth than second or first, making this an incredibly valuable prop. We have played it safe with many of the other groups, but this is a spot where Group D appears to be mispriced, and we will take full advantage. 

Pick: Turkiye to Win Group D +230

Top Pick: Paraguay to Qualify? NO +210

Predicted Group D Table

Turkiye: 9 Points

United States: 6 Points

Australia: 1 Point

Paraguay: 1 Point

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