2023 March Madness Bracket Predictions: East Region

by Robert Ferringo - 3/15/2023

March Madness bracket predictions East Region Zach Edey Purdue Boilermakers

If you are hunting for a portion of the NCAA Tournament bracket that is most likely to descend into pure chaos, I say look no further than the East Region.

The East is by far the shakiest group of teams in the field, with massive overachievers (Marquette and Kansas State), surrounded by massive underachievers (Tennessee, Duke, and Kentucky), with plenty of landmines (Florida Atlantic, Oral Roberts, Louisiana) sprinkled in.

That leaves Purdue, one of the top three favorites to win the tournament, as seemingly the safest bet to come out of this region. However, the Boilermakers program has a history of pain and shame in the NCAA Tournament. And since it has been over two decades since a Big Ten team cut down the nets and won a National Championship, you have to wonder if “safe” has any place in a discussion about Purdue’s chances.

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Here are Doc’s Sports March Madness bracket predictions for the East Region:

No. 1 Seed: Purdue Boilermakers (+300 to win East Region)

The Boilermakers lost just one of their first 23 games this season, including blowout wins over Gonzaga (by 18) and Duke (by 19) on neutral courts. They won the Big Ten regular and tournament titles. And they have a legitimate giant on their team. Like, the kind of giant that they used to sing songs and write poems about. Zach Edey, the expected national play of the year, is 7-foot-4 and basically unstoppable. He is a mountain of man and the focal point of what Purdue can do on offense and defense. Stopping the Boilermakers means finding a way to topple the giant. Freshmen Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith are the only other double-digit scorers. And if there is a weakness on this team, it would be their general lack of experience.

Purdue NCAA Tournament Predictions: It must be said: Matt Painter has to be one of the worst NCAA Tournament coaches in the country. Painter has turned 13 tournament bids into just one Elite Eight appearance. They made the Sweet 16 last year (one season after getting upset as a No. 3 seed) and have an easy road to the second weekend this season. But if you are looking for a team to snap the Big Ten’s streak of national title failures, I would look somewhere else. The Boilermakers are just 12-19 against the spread this season, so caveat emptor.

No. 2 Seed: Marquette Golden Eagles (+450)

The Big East regular season and tournament champions are one of the biggest overachievers in the country. This team started the season unranked and basically unaccounted for. A 26-point home win over Baylor on Nov. 29 triggered a 23-4 straight up run. The Golden Eagles are 20-10-1 ATS on the season, one of the best marks in the nation, and they are carrying a nine-game winning streak into The Big Dance. Tyler Kolek is the triggerman for this offense, which is No. 6 in the nation in field goal percentage, and the Eagles can play fast or slow. They are ranked just No. 286 in field goal defense, though, and are one of the weakest rebounding teams in the field.

Marquette NCAA Tournament Predictions: No team that started the season unranked and earned a top two seed (No. 1 or No. 2 in their region) has ever made the Final Four. Two-thirds of the teams that fit that bill didn’t even survive the opening weekend, including Alabama in 2021. Marquette is the smallest favorite for any No. 2 seed since 2015, and Shaka Smart has lost six straight first-round matchups, including going 0-4 since he left VCU. He is 1-6 ATS in his past seven NCAA Tournament games.

No. 3 Seed: Kansas State Wildcats (+900)

After Marquette, Kansas State is another one of the biggest surprise teams in the nation. Picked to finish at the bottom of the Big 12, Jerome Tang’s squad went 23-9 overall and 11-7 in the toughest league in the country. Transfers Keyontae Johnson, Markquis Nowell and Desi Sills are three fifth-year senior guards and the heart of this squad. K-State went 20-11 ATS this season, but they were just 4-7 SU on the road and are just 5-6 SU in their last 11 games entering the tournament.

Kansas State NCAA Tournament Predictions: Since 2015, No. 3 seeds that are single-digit favorites are 2-5 ATS, with three outright losses. These guys simply didn’t do enough outside of The Octagon this season to make me think they are poised for a big run.

No. 4 Seed: Tennessee Volunteers (+550)

I like to remind everyone of this every single March: Rick Barnes did not make the Sweet 16 with Kevin Durant, D.J. Augustin and the core of a team that made the Elite Eight the season prior. True story. And the moral of that story is not to trust Rick Barnes. Barnes is headed to his fifth tournament in seven tries with the Vols. But his teams have been bounced before Monday in nine of his last 10 appearances in The Dance dating back to 2009. That includes last year when the No. 3 Vols were taken out by Michigan in the second round.

Tennessee NCAA Tournament Predictions: Barnes is 19-29-1 ATS (.396) in the NCAA Tournament and 16-25-1 ATS as favorite. The Vols looked like a national title contender after they opened the year 18-3 SU following an 11-point win over Texas. Then they lost leading scorer Zakai Zeigler for the year to injury, and this Vols team looked generally listless while going 5-7 down the stretch. The end is near for this group, despite the best efforts of outstanding senior guards Santiago Vescovi and Tyreke Key.

No. 5 Seed: Duke Blue Devils (+800)

You had to know it was never going to be easy to replace Coach K. And John Scheyer’s first season at the helm of the Blue Devils has been all over the map. Duke, which went 12-19 ATS, has some big nonconference wins (Xavier, Iowa) and some ugly blowout losses (Miami by 22 and N.C. State by 24). Talent isn’t a problem. Experience is. Five of their top six players are freshmen. And even if they are blue chip guys, freshmen aren’t usually part of a recipe for success in The Dance. That said, Duke is one of the hottest teams in the country right now, winning nine straight games while going 6-3 ATS and rolling to an ACC title.

Duke NCAA Tournament Predictions: This is just the second time since 1996 that the Blue Devils have been seeded worse than No. 4 in their region. It is just odd to see, like watching a cat play the piano. If the Blue Devils manage to survive the opening round, they would likely be set for a rematch with a Purdue team that beat them 75-56 back in November.

No. 6 Seed: Kentucky Wildcats (+900)

Much like Duke, Kentucky has been all over the place this season. They have blowout wins over tournament teams like Tennessee, Auburn, and Arkansas and losses against bottom-feeders like Georgia and South Carolina. Senior Oscar Tshiebwe is an absolute animal and will try to drag the carcass of this program to the Sweet 16. He averages 16.4 points and 13.1 rebounds and is the team’s best defender. But Kentucky is outside of the Top 10 in scoring offense and defense and outside the Top 95 in field goal offense and defense.

Kentucky Tournament Predictions: The Wildcats are in an odd pod the opening weekend. They are obviously the best team of the four in Greensboro – but they may have the shortest stay. Kentucky is still trying to shrug off last year’s embarrassing loss to St. Peter’s (as a No. 2 seed), and the Wildcats haven’t survived the opening weekend since 2019.

Best first-round matchup: No. 5 Duke vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts

I was furious when I saw these two teams matched up against one another. Before the bracket was announced, I intended to bet on both teams no matter who they faced. Sure enough – they get matched up against each other. Oral Roberts has the nation’s longest active winning streak (17 games) and one of college basketball’s best scorers, Max Abmas. Just two years ago, Abmas shot ORU into the Sweet 16. And if the Blue Devils have any letdown after steamrolling through the ACC Tournament, they could get bounced early.

Best potential second-round matchup: No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 5 Duke

Frankly, I will be surprised if both teams survive games against dangerous mid-major opponents in the opening round. If it does happen, though, this is a matchup of two teams that have dabbled in the Top 10 this season. The Vols have wins over Kansas and Texas this year, so they are capable of playing with anyone. And Duke’s freshmen core may learn some lessons from Tennessee’s cagey seniors.

Upset Alert (first round): No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Providence

The storyline in this game is that Providence’s best player, Bryce Hopkins, is a former Kentucky recruit that was underutilized in Lexington and now a stud in Rhode Island. He will be extremely motivated against his old mates, and this Friars team is going to fight tooth and nail. The Friars have beaten Connecticut, Creighton, and Marquette this year, so they are capable of slaying the Wildcats.

Upset Alert (second round): No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 8 Memphis

Memphis might not even survive its 8-9 matchup with Florida Atlantic, so this one is far from a given. But if it does happen, this could be a tough matchup for the Boilermakers. The Tigers have gone toe-to-toe with two of the best teams in the country, Alabama and Houston, and nothing Purdue has will scare them. Memphis plays at a fast pace that may be able to neutralize Zach Edey, and their veteran guards could dominate Purdue’s freshman backcourt. Oh, and I pointed out earlier: Matt Painter has been a dud in the NCAA Tournament.

Dark Horse Team: Duke

This is John Scheyer’s first go-round as the head man in The Big Dance, and this young team still has a lot to prove. There is no substitute for talent, though, and the Blue Devils have plenty. They have three guys in their seven-man rotation that are 6-foot-10 or taller, and they boast size and athleticism for days. I also think the Blue Devils are clicking at the right time, and they have a favorable half of the bracket.

Team That Makes Me Nervous: Marquette

I love how this Marquette team plays. I’m still skeptical of Smart, though, and his tournament failures are well-documented. This group has only two players with three years of college hoops experience, so they are a young team relative to the rest of the field. They also exerted a lot of energy and emotion last week in the Big East Tournament. No. 2 seeds are notorious for early exits, and I think that the Golden Eagles are the weakest of the four slotted at that number. It is tough to keep doubting a team that has surpassed expectations time and time again this season. But at a certain point, this group must come back to reality.

2023 East Region Predictions: This bracket is a mess. There are so many teams and coaches that I just don’t trust all thrown together. Painter. Smart. Scheyer. Barnes. Shaky Kentucky and Kansas State squads. My dark horse team, Duke, might not survive its first game. It’s a mess. Honestly, there is nothing stopping Tom Izzo from going on one of his patented March runs from the No. 7 seed and winning this bracket. If Purdue is ever going to make a Final Four under Matt Painter, this should be the year. I just don’t think he will. I will be surprised if one of the top three seeds makes it out of this region. And it wouldn’t stun me at all if, like last year, we had a high seed (like Miami or North Carolina) steamroll their way through the bracket. It is such a jumble that I don’t even feel right making a pick. Just bet some underdog moneylines and watch the madness unfold.

Robert Ferringo is a member of the Basketball Writer's Association of America and a professional sports handicapper for Doc's Sports. He is considered one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and has posted 12 of 15 winning seasons. He is looking for a monster March run and you can sign up for his college basketball picks and get more information here.

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2023 March Madness Bracket Predictions: East Region

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