NCAA Tournament Seed History
Four teams have already been lucky enough to punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament, and many more will do the same over the next week or so leading up to Selection Sunday. From those teams who have done so already, Murray State won the Ohio Valley conference, and their appearance in the tournament will give the world an up-close look at Ja Morant, a potential Top-3 draft pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. The Racers are projected to be a No.12 seed and could pull off the upset in the opening round if history repeats itself this year. Over in the Big South conference, Gardner-Webb knocked off the top two teams in the conference en route to their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance. Bradley rallied from an 18-point deficit to top Northern Iowa in the Missouri Valley conference tournament to earn their first tournament bid since 2006. And lastly, Liberty - best known for beating UCLA by 15 points and getting coach Steve Alford fired - got the job done in a testy Atlantic Sun conference final versus Lipscomb.
More automatic bids will be won tonight as the Southern Conference and the MAAC will be contested by UNC Greensboro vs No. 20 Wofford and Iona vs Monmouth.
Getting into the conference tournament is one thing, but actually being successful in the tournament is a whole other ball game. Below, I've broken down the win-loss records of each seed versus their first-round opponent. Every team who gets into the tournament has a "chance" to go on an epic Cinderella type run, but at the end of the day the cream usually rises to the top.
NCAA Tournament Seeds - By the Numbers
No. 1 seeds are a near-perfect 135-1 against No.16 Seeds. You can still blindly pencil them into the Round of 32 each year as we likely won't see another UMBC vs. Virginia result for a long time.
In the Round of 32, No.1 Seeds have a record of 55-13 vs. No. 8 seeds and 61-6 vs. No.9 seeds.
In the Round of 16, the win-loss records of No.1 seeds are as follows:
No. 1 vs. No. 4 - 37-15
No. 1 vs. No. 5 - 34-7
No. 1 vs. No 12 -19-0
No. 1 vs. No 13 - 4-0
In the Elite Eight, No.1 seeds hold win-loss records against the following teams:
No. 1 vs. No. 2 - 23-23
No. 1 vs. No. 3 - 14-9
No. 1 vs. No 6 - 7-2
No. 1 vs. No 7 - 4-0
No. 1 vs. No. 10- 4-1
No. 1 vs. No.11 - 4-3
There has only been one occasion where all four No.1 seeds won their region and proceeded to the Final Four. The year was 2008, and those teams were Kansas, UCLA, UNC, and Memphis.
The No. 2 seed is 125-8 against the No. 15 seed (.941).
The last No.2 to lose in the first round of the tournament was Michigan State, who lost to No.15 Middle Tennessee State. The Blue Raiders then promptly got run out of the building in the Round of 32 by Syracuse.
In the Round of 32, No.2 Seeds have a record of 56-25 vs. No. 7 seeds and 28-19 vs. No.10 seeds.
In the Round of 16, the win-loss records of No.1 seeds are as follows:
No. 2 vs. No. 3 - 26-15
No. 2 vs. No. 6 - 23-6
No. 2 vs. No 11 -13-2
In the Elite 8, No.1 seeds hold win-loss records against the following teams:
No. 2 vs. No. 1 - 23-23
No. 2 vs. No. 4 - 2-4
No. 2 vs. No 5 - 0-3
No. 2 vs. No 8- 2-3
No. 2 vs. No. 9- 0-1
No. 2 vs. No.12 - 1-0
For the sake of space, the rest of the records for opening round matchups for No.3 through No.8 are as follows:
The #3 seed is 115-21 against the #14 seed (.846)
The #4 seed is 108-28 against the #13 seed (.794)
The #5 seed is 89-47 against the #12 seed (.654)
The #6 seed is 85-51 against the #11 seed (.625)
The #7 seed is 84-52 against the #10 seed (.618)
The #8 seed is 68-68 against the #9 seed (.500)
The most popular upset pick in the Round of 64 is usually the game which features the 5-seed vs. the 12-seed. This year, the trends to support the upset may continue.
While the No.5 seed holds an 89-47 record all-time vs. No.12, this is the most common (popular) upset pick on the board in the first round. Winning straight up not only gives bettors a chance to make some serious money, it also allows point-spread players to grab the points without any hesitation.
Like I said, if you want to win a March Madness pool, you will have to rely on luck and trends that back you up. What makes a bracket stand out is the Cinderella school that you picked to reach the Elite 8 or Final Four. This is usually a make-or-break scenario, but if it makes you, you will reap the benefits of that great selection.
A Cinderella team is usually a lower-seeded mid-major school who plays in a smaller non-power-5 conference. A recent example of this is Florida Gulf Coast in 2013. They were playing in their first ever NCAA Tournament and won two games before ultimately falling short in the Sweet 16. Normally "Cinderellas" are well coached, can spread the floor well and are a solid rebounding team.
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