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Sweet 16 Bracket Picks: Mapping Out the Eventual National Champion

by Ryan Cobbett - 3/25/2026

Sweet 16 bracket picks Brayden Burries Arizona Wildcats

With the Sweet 16 on the horizon, now is the time to revisit the sportsbooks and decide on our predicted National Champion. The perfect brackets are no more, the upsets have happened, and while we have no mid-major teams still running, we do have No. 11 Seed Texas and No. 9 Seed Iowa ready to cause further chaos. Let’s dive into what the bracket looks like at the Sweet 16 round and see who is going to take the trophy home with them.

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Sweet 16

No. 11 Texas Longhorns vs No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers

The Longhorns are the biggest surprise here in the Sweet 16. After sneaking into the play-in round, they knocked off North Carolina State, BYU, and Gonzaga. While they haven’t run away with a game yet, they have experienced hard-fought victories in March. Purdue on the other hand only had to play two games, and only one legit opponent in Miami. The Longhorns do a great job of limiting second chance points, but Purdue is going to be too big of a challenge for them. The Boilermakers are averaging 82.2 PPG this season, and if they are hot from deep in this one, Purdue will win in a blowout.

My Pick: Purdue -345

No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes vs No. 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the second biggest surprise in the Sweet 16 after knocking off the defending champion Florida Gators. The Hawkeyes showcase a tough style of play, forcing you to play at their pace, and they have a lot of their supporting staff getting hot at the right time. Nebraska also features great defense, and they are full of three-point shooters. These two teams split the regular season matchup and now will have the biggest showdown in history on the hardwood between these two schools. I am riding with the Hawkeyes to continue their surprise run as Bennett Stirtz will be the best player on the court, and he has yet to show his full potential in this tournament.

My Pick: Iowa +108

No. 4 Arkansas Razorbacks vs No. 1 Arizona Wildcats

Arkansas has won two shootouts in their opening two games of this tournament, but now they will run into one of the most complicated and stout defenses in the nation. Arizona rivals Michigan as the most complete team on the court. However, Arkansas has one thing that Arizona doesn’t, Darius Acuff Jr. Acuff has averaged 30 PPG over his past three games while shooting 51% from beyond the arc. He is capable of winning this game for Arkansas, but I think the Wildcats will prove to be too much.

My Pick: Arizona -345

No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs No. 2 Houston Cougars

This one is going to be an absolute dog fight. Neither team has faced any resistance up to this point in the tournament and will now have to duke it out for a chance to advance. Illinois has the size advantage, but the Cougars have the advantage in coaching and defense. However, the Illini are going to be a major matchup problem for the Cougars. Their size advantage should allow them to dominate the boards and create a multitude of second chance points, which will be important against a defense like Houston’s. Don’t expect Houston to just roll over, but Illinois is the better team and will overcome a tough battle.

My Pick: Illinois +136

No. 5 St. John’s Red Storm vs No.1 Duke Blue Devils

Offensively, Duke is the much better team. The Johnnies play great defense, but the Blue Devils have too much star power for them to contain. Cameron Boozer has worked his away into the Top Three pick conversation, and he is the best player left in this tournament. Boozer and Caleb Foster light it up from deep, while Patrick Ngongba II will work the paint. St. John’s magic will run out here.

My Pick: Duke -280

No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide vs No. 1 Michigan Wolverines

The Crimson Tide were lights out in their Round of 32 win against Texas Tech, and if they shoot like that again, no one is going to stop them. However, they are set to face their best opponents in the season, in a dominant Michigan team. The Wolverines play solid perimeter defense, and, without a doubt, they have the upper hand with size and toughness. Michigan might be the most complete team on paper in the nation, and this Alabama team is still without their second leading scorer and their best three-point threat. Do not overthink this one, take the Wolverines.

My Pick: Michigan -450

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs No. 2 UConn Huskies

This is another matchup that will be tight from beginning to end. Two Hall of Fame coaches leading two of the most talented rosters in the country. Both teams rely on solid defenses and offensive efficiency to win games. Whoever shoots better from deep will win this game. Despite the heavy Big 10 presence here, I am going to ride with the Huskies. They have had more recent success, and Dan Hurley knows how to win in March.

My Pick: UConn -128

No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers vs No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State would win this game 9/10 at full strength. Now with their leading rebounder and one of their top scorers uncertain for this one, and almost certainly not 100%, the game gets a lot more interesting. What benefits Iowa State is their tough defense, averaging over nine steals per game. Tennessee is aggressive on the boards, but Iowa State has better shooters. Expect this one to be a lot closer than the seeding, but the Cyclones will prevail.

My Pick: Iowa State -192

Elite Eight

No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs No. 2 UConn Huskies

UConn plays great defense, but they don’t have enough firepower to handle Duke. They may slow them down, but if Alex Karaban is off, the Blue Devils will run away with this. Another issue here is depth, and the stars need to be on here. I like Duke here with the better depth, the better stars, and the fact that they have multiple weapons from beyond the arc. Boozer and the Blue Devils will win this one here and head to the Final Four.

My Pick: Duke -196

No. 9 Iowa Hawkeyes vs No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini

The Big 10 will have a lot of teams reach the Elite Eight, just like the Sweet 16, so we are primed for an incredible conference showdown here. These two met earlier in January, with Illinois storming into Carver Hawkeye Arena and winning by six. While Iowa may have the best player in this game, the Illini have a lot more weapons. David Mirkovic and Andrej Stojakovic have been on fire down the stretch, and the Ivisic brothers are going to be a huge matchup problem here for Iowa. It is hard to write off this magical run for Iowa, but Illinois has a legit shot at winning the National Championship.

My Pick: Illinois -210

No. 1 Arizona Wildcats vs No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers

Arizona is the best team here. Purdue moves the ball around tremendously which could cause some issues for the Wildcats defense, but Arizona is primed for a deep run this year. They will shut down the perimeter, control the boards, and run an extremely efficient offense keeping the pressure on the Boilermakers. Expect a big game from the veteran players like Jaden Bradley and Motiejus Krivas, and watch Arizona eliminate the Big 10 team.

My Pick: Arizona -188

No. 1 Michigan Wolverines vs No. 2 Iowa State Cyclones

The Wolverines are complete, as mentioned earlier. Michigan would also get an incredible boost with the uncertainty around Jefferson. Both teams play exceptional defense, while Michigan led the Big 10 in scoring. The Wolverines have a major size advantage in this one, and they have more three-point weapons. Look for Michigan to create a lot of second chance opportunities and get hot from deep in a matchup that would heavily favor them.

My Pick: Michigan -188

Final Four

No. 1 Duke Blue Devils vs No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini

The commentary becomes so hypothetical here that I cannot put two No. 1 Seeds in the National Championship. So, how does Illinois take down the mighty Blue Devils? Winning the perimeter game and creating opportunities. Unfortunately for Illinois, they live and die by their three-point shooting. If they come out of the gates strong and create second looks, then there is reason to believe that Duke will struggle erasing a deficit. Illinois will also need to be steady from the free throw line. There is little room for error if they want to knock out Duke, and this facet of the game becomes incredibly important.

My Pick: No. 3 Seed Illinois Fighting Illini

No. 1 Arizona Wildcats vs No. 1 Michigan Wolverines

Both teams are big, incredibly efficient, and physical. This in its own right is a National Championship type of game. These are the two best teams left in the tournament, and this would be an incredible clash of titans. Arizona has more firepower in a few stars, while Michigan has talent more spread out. The Wildcats win with downhill guards and capitalize on second chance opportunities, and Michigan may be a little too narrow offensively. This could be highlighted if their front court gets into foul trouble. Small things like FT% and turnovers are huge here, and I am giving the edge to the Wildcats.

My Pick: No.1 Seed Arizona Wildcats

National Championship

No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini vs No. 1 Arizona Wildcats

While the Wildcats will have just played their toughest game in the tournament in the Final Four, they still can’t overlook the Fighting Illini. Arizona is going to be the better team in this matchup thanks to their athleticism and perimeter defense. Arizona will be heavily focused on defending the perimeter and taking away the one advantage that Illinois has. They need to win the battle at the free throw line, create a few key second chance looks, limit their momentum beyond the arc, and force them inside the arc. Once Arizona establishes their defensive identity for this game, then the offense will pour it on Illinois. Give the Wildcats the trophy.

My Pick: Arizona +380

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