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March Madness Upset Predictions for 2025 NCAA Tournament - First Round

by Joey House - 3/18/2025

March Madness upset predictions first round Max Shulga VCU Rams

The NCAA Tournament is celebrated for its thrilling unpredictability, and the first round often features some of its most unforgettable moments. Each year, lower-seeded teams -- such as 11s, 12s, and even the previously unimaginable 16s—shock powerhouse programs with upsets that excite fans and disrupt brackets. Notable victories, including the historic triumph of 16-seed UMBC over 1-seed Virginia in 2018 and 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson's 2023 defeat of 1-seed Purdue, heighten the stakes of the opening games. These rare successes embody the essence of college basketball, where determination, timely heroics, and a bit of luck can elevate underdogs to legendary status and capture the chaotic spirit of March Madness.

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Anatomy of a First-Round Upset

Some opening-round upsets seem obvious in hindsight, such as last year's 12-seed James Madison defeat of the 5-seed Wisconsin, yet spotting these potential bracket-busters remains a challenge. What key ingredients signal a double-digit seed's potential to upset their favored opponent? While the magic of March Madness resists simple formulas, certain traits can flash warning signs—hints that a lower seed might be primed to flip the script.

The most obvious factor often comes from a star player who rises to the challenge and excels in the spotlight. The least-informed college basketball fan knows who Duke's freshman Cooper Flagg is. However, many memorable first-round upsets and deep tournament runs have hinged on exceptional performances from a lower-seeded standout, such as 10-seed Davidson's 82-76 victory over 7-seed Gonzaga in 2008. That win was propelled by emerging star Stephen Curry's 40-point surge, including an 8-for-10 barrage from three-point range. Few basketball fans knew of Lehigh University before 2012, but that changed when the 15-seed stunned 2-seed Duke 75-70, powered by junior guard C.J. McCollum's 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists. That breakout performance launched him into the spotlight. And despite a season-ending broken foot injury midway through his senior year, he still secured the 10th overall pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. What made this upset so amazing was a few hours before, 15-seed Norfolk State eliminated 2-seed Missouri, 86-84.

UC-San Diego, the 12-seed in the South region, has a senior forward named Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones from New Zealand, who is averaging 19.5 ppg and leads the nation in both free throw attempts (293) and free throws made (222). The Tritons, out of the Big West Conference, also have a senior guard, Tyler McGhie, who is 6th in the country in 3-point attempts (295) and 4th in made 3's (114).

The current form is a key indicator, with a lower seed peaking or a higher seed faltering at the critical moment. A double-digit seed on a late-season hot streak can bring momentum, while a favorite sliding into the tournament can signal trouble. Last year's upset win of 12-seed James Madison over 5-seed Wisconsin seems obvious in retrospect: JMU entered on a 13-game win streak, capped by a Sun Belt title, while Wisconsin had lost 8 of 12 games heading into the Big Ten Tournament. And, despite reaching the final, fell 93-87 to Illinois, exposing flaws that left them vulnerable. The Dukes sealed the win with a decisive 72-61 performance in the first round, never trailing against the Badgers. The 11-seed North Carolina State in 2024 hit 17-14, losing four straight to close the regular season, but turned it around with five wins in five days at the ACC Tournament, igniting a Final Four run that started with an 80-67 upset of 6-seed Texas Tech. The 15-seed Saint Peter's Peacocks in 2022 lifted a 12-11 midseason record into seven straight wins, including a MAAC tourney sweep, setting up an 85-79 upset of 2-seed Kentucky and an Elite Eight run.

One trait that virtually every winning underdog team shares is a veteran-laden squad. For many players of the lower seeds, the NCAA Tournament may be the pinnacle of their basketball career. Eighteen- and 19-year-old kids may let the situation overwhelm them. But a cadre of upperclassmen can help calm their nerves and, hopefully, right the ship before the game gets away from them. Even though the Fab Five freshman from Michigan made consecutive National Championship appearances in 1992 and 1993, they are the exception rather than the rule. Let us not forget that they fell short in each game to a Duke team that started two seniors and two juniors, with forward Grant Hill being the lone underclassmen starter. When Michigan battled North Carolina the following season, they faced a starting five that once again only had one underclassman, guard Donald Williams, in the starting rotation. In arguably the most prominent opening-round upset last season, 14-seed Oakland had three seniors and two juniors starting. In contrast, 3-seed Kentucky started two freshman guards, two senior forwards, and a sophomore center. This year, a few more seasoned underdogs are 12-seed UC San Diego, with two seniors in the backcourt and their senior star power forward, with juniors starting at small forward and center. If 16-seed Norfolk State wants to secure its place in basketball lore by upsetting 1-seed Florida, they'll lean heavily on a complete senior starting five and four seniors in the second line. Fourteen-seed Lipscomb, who takes on 3-seed Iowa State, boasts a starting lineup of four seniors and a junior center.

Potential First-Round Upsets

South Region: No. 12 UC-San Diego (+124 ML) over No. 5 Michigan (-2.5/142.5 O/U)

This pick ticks every box. In just their fifth Division I year, UCSD plays like a veteran mid-major, riding a 14-game win streak to a 30-4 record. The Tritons pair senior leadership with the sixth-best scoring defense (61.8 PPG allowed) and 10th-most threes (10.2 3-pts made). Michigan dropped four of their last six regular-season games before a Big Ten Tournament win, leaving them shaky against UCSD's form.

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East Region: No. 11 VCU (+140) vs. No. 11 BYU (-3/146.5)

Fourteen years after their 2011 Final Four as a play-in team, VCU returns with a Top-10 scoring defense (62.4 PPG allowed). They start four seniors, including guards Max Shulga and Joseph Bamisile, both of whom are averaging 15.1 ppg. They drive a three-heavy game (9.5 of 28.4 3PA, 43rd). BYU's 81 PPG and 10.7 3-pt made(10th) pose a challenge, but their 37% 3P% could falter against VCU's elite D, tilting this 11-seed clash.

West Region: No. 13 Grand Canyon (+425) over No. 4 Maryland (-10/150)

Bryce Drew, who sank a 1998 buzzer-beater for 13-seed Valparaiso's upset, now coaches Grand Canyon. They score 79.2 PPG (55th) and allow 69.1 (89th), but their edge is free throws—4th in attempts (24.6 FTA) and makes (18.2 FTM), drawing 20.3 opponent fouls (5th). Maryland's 6-9 February fade suggests they'll struggle to stay clean against this tactic.

Midwest Region: No. 12 McNeese State (+275) over No. 5 Clemson (-7.5/134.5)

A 5-vs-12 upset is a must, and McNeese delivers. From a 5-5 record on December 14, they surged to 22-1, finishing 27-6 with a stout defense (64 PPG, 16th) and solid offense (77.2 PPG, 89th). Three senior starters and 11 players over 10 minutes deep keep them fresh. Clemson beat Duke in conference but fell to Louisville in the ACC tourney, setting up a close battle McNeese can edge.

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