NCAA Tournament Bracket Advice and Tips for 2022 March Madness
As we are getting closer to the Big Dance, I could not be more excited to take in all the action. With this being the first year the tournament has felt normal since 2019, I am sure many of you are just as enthusiastic as myself. The tournament is back to regular format where games will be spread across the United States and teams will experience a certain sense of ‘home’ advantage. I am saying this because last year the tournament was hosted in one state only, Indiana. As many of you know, or maybe do not know, travel in the NCAA Tournament matters. Before we jump into it, this article will be a great read if you are looking for an advantage when picking your bracket. We will go over travel, upsets, how many upsets to pick, and statistically how far seeds go in the tournament.
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Travel
When going over bracket advice and tips for analyzing every matchup, let us first start with the effect of travel has on the outcomes of games. Some key insights to consider are as followed:
-The decline in winning percentage is most precipitous for tournament teams that travel east, dropping to below 38% for teams crossing two or more time zones.
-Traveling more than 150 miles from home reduces the odds of winning to 0.664, or 33.6% less than for those who play in their home regions.
-No. 3 seeds in the 2012 tournament averaged 424 miles to their first round-site, more than the 1 and 2 seed averages combined.
-A study from 2013 to 2017 revealed of the 71 games held within 500 miles of both team campuses, favorites won 76% of the time, covering the spread at a 55% clip. Of the 39 contests in which both squads had to travel at least 1,000 miles, favorites won just 59% of the time, covering in 43% of these matchups.
Upsets
It is inevitable; picking upsets is a must in every bracket. Many bettors might wonder where they should put the most attention to in the bracket. As far as value goes, targeting the 5 versus 12 matchups has historically been the most profitable. Over the past five tournaments, No. 12 seeds are 12-7-1 against the spread versus No. 5 seeds for a win rate of 63.2 percent. Comparing the 12 vs 5 upset to an 11 vs 6 upset, on only three more occasions has an 11 seed beat a 6 seed compared to a 12 beating a 5. Posting a 51-93 record, choosing a 12 seed is a must. Thirty-one 13 seeds have upset 4 seeds since the NCAA Tournament field expanded in 1985, giving them a 31-113 record all-time. That equates to a 21.53 winning percentage, so it's 14 percentage points less likely than a 12 seed beating a 5.
On the contrary, the No. 5 seed has performed the worst all time of any top 8 seed in tournament history, being the only seed to never produce a National Championship. Is the seed cursed? All signs may be pointing to that. The No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup looks a lot more like the 6 vs. 11 one than it does the 4 vs. 13. The No. 5 seeds have been considerably weaker than No. 4 seeds, and No. 12 seeds have been considerably stronger than No. 13 seeds. The average No. 5 seed had a 6.6 point expected advantage going into a game against its No. 12 seed opponent. That’s only 2.2 points higher than the average advantage that No. 6 seeds held against No. 11 seeds (4.4 points), but it’s 5.1 points lower than the average advantage that No. 4 seeds held against No. 13 seeds (11.7 points).
How many upsets do I pick?
An upset in terms of March Madness is when the winning team is at least two seed lines better than the losing team, so let’s look historically how many upsets you should choose.
The average for total upsets in a NCAA Tournament is 12.4, the least happening in 2007 with only 4 upsets and most in 2014 with 19 upsets. The first-round averages 6.2 upsets, just over 1 per region. After the Sweet 16, upsets are very uncommon, averaging less then 1 per tournament. A general rule of thumb is that your upsets should average about half as many as the round before.
As far as frequency goes for each seed, the break down looks like this:
(35 tournaments)
|
|
How many wins? |
Percentage |
|
No. 10 seed over No. 7 seed
|
57 |
39.5% |
|
No. 11 seed over No. 6 seed
|
54 |
37.5% |
|
No. 12 seed over No. 5 seed
|
51 |
35.4% |
|
No. 13 seed over No. 4 seed
|
31 |
21.5% |
|
No. 14 seed over No. 3 seed
|
22 |
15.3% |
|
No. 15 seed over No. 2 seed
|
9 |
6.3% |
|
No. 16 seed over No. 1 seed
|
1 |
0.7% |
How far will teams go?
Statistically every year, a No.1 seed has made the Final Four, and the stats lead to more than one making it. In thirty of the 35 years, a No. 2 seed has taken part in the Final Four, so as far as safe bets go it would be wise to include the two. No. 3 seeds advance to the Final Four every other year on average, coming in at a 0.47 average per year. If you are not picking a No. 1 seed to advance in a specific region, it is likely the No. 4 seed or No. 5 would have taken them out as they have made a combined 20 appearances. Odds greatly diminish when picking past the No. 5 seed as only a combined 18 teams have made it to the Final Four seeded 5 or below. Surprisingly, the No. 11 seed has shown an advantage over seeds 6 to 10, making the Final Four 5 times, and that is more than the 5 seeds below them.
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