NCAA Tournament Bracket Advice and Tips for 2023 March Madness

by August Young - 3/15/2023

NCAA Tournament bracket tips and advice Carlos Jurgens Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

With the start of March Madness just around the corner, anticipation and excitement for this year's tournament is at an all-time high. While you gear up for action with your wagers and bracket predictions, here’s something extra that can give you that added edge: we’ll cover bracket strategy, historic trends, plus added insights on which situations may be worth looking into. Let’s get to it.

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Upset Watch:

Picking upsets is an essential part of a successful bracket. Historically, there has been success in backing the No. 11 seed vs. the No. 6 seed. The outright win rate for these teams has been 37.5% and this has been increasing. For example, since 2014, the No. 11 seeds have beaten the No. 6 seeds more than 50% of the time. However, past success is not indicative of future results. And with this information being public knowledge, I would tend to look for something more outlandish if you want to stand out from the crowd. In my experience, looking at teams that have not performed well on the road for the season, that also have a questionable strength of schedule, is the way to go. For example, a team like Vermont could be a prime upset candidate. Marquette has four losses on the road this season and have played a decent (but not elite) strength of schedule. They are also 0-4 ATS in their previous four tournament appearances. Something to ponder.

Trends:

Understanding historic NCAA Tournament trends can be vital to success when looking at which teams to back in the tournament. Let’s share some specifics that you can use to aid in your decision making. First of all, we recommend looking towards slower paced underdogs. For example; since 2005, underdogs that have a pace average of 72.2 or less are 54.9% ATS for a +6.6% ROI. The success has been linear, too, when reducing the tempo range. For example, underdogs with a pace average of 70 or less are 56% ATS for a +9.2% ROI, while underdogs with an average pace of 68 or less are 57% ATS for a +10.2% ROI.

We should also note that double-digit underdogs have been money-makers. In database history, underdogs of at least 10.5 points are 120-108 (52.6%) ATS for a +1.6% ROI. This increases to an impressive 55-41 (57.3%) ATS when looking at 17-point underdogs or higher. Finally, we would also recommend not over-reacting to recency bias in the tournament. For example, teams that advance to the next round after covering the spread by double-digits are just 46% ATS. Fading such teams would have produced a 54% win rate for a +3.1% ROI. Don’t be afraid to fade the teams looking like world beaters from one round to the next.

Small Intangibles (Strength of Schedule and Luck Rating)

The small intangibles are often overlooked when it comes to filling out a successful March Madness bracket. We all know about how teams performed against others, and also the surface offensive and defensive metrics. However, what about Strength of Schedule, Luck Rating and Point Distribution? For those of you who are wondering, Strength of Schedule (SOS) is a metric used to determine how easy or difficult a particular team's schedule has been compared to that of other opponents. The harder the strength of schedule, the more proven the metrics are. Avoiding some questionable strength of schedule teams can be a good strategy. Houston, Saint Mary’s, Florida Atlantic, Oral Roberts, and VCU are all teams that fit that narrative. The most surprising of the bunch is the Cougars. They’ve been stellar this season, but they have played the 92nd toughest strength of schedule in the nation, which includes just the 101st toughest in regards to opposing teams offensive rating.

As for Luck Rating, this is a metric which is used to determine how lucky or unlucky a specific team has been. This is often derived by how many close games (decided by one possession) a team has either won or lost. The reason for this is simple; a team should not be expected to win every game that is decided by one possession. If they have managed to do so, they will have a higher Luck Rating, which could be an indicator that they are being overvalued in the market. The teams in the tournament with the highest luck rating are UNC Asheville, Kennesaw State, Missouri, Kansas, and Oral Roberts. This seems as though we may have uncovered a team to stay away from based on SOS and Luck Rating with the Golden Eagles.

August Young has proven to be one of the absolute best handicappers in the industry. As of Selection Sunday (3/12/23) August’s Clients are up +$12,710 on the college basketball picks season, including a +10,790 CBB heater in 2023 alone. Speaking of which, Young is up an astounding +$20,475 across all sports in 2023 which includes showing profit in each and every sport he handicaps! If you are new to Doc’s Sports you can get a no obligation free $60 account to try out August Young on this page. Existing members can get 15% off a one week or remainder of the season college basketball package with promo code AYMM15

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Start:	October 1, 2023 @ 4:25 PM
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NCAA Tournament Bracket Advice and Tips for 2023 March Madness

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