2018 World Series Predictions

by Chris Vasile - 10/22/2018

Los Angeles Dodgers Starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw

The Fall Classic is finally here, and baseball fans around the world will be treated to one heck of a matchup. These two teams, the Dodgers and Red Sox, are two of baseball's most storied franchises, and that doesn't take into consideration the big East Coast/West Coast markets they are in. It could be argued that this specific matchup is a ratings dream. And if the series is as close as I believe it is, the ratings could match some of the highest World Series ratings of all time.

The Red Sox came into this season with the highest payroll in the Majors at $224 million, while the Dodgers had the fifth-highest at $179 million. Based on the results and how each team went about their business, every cent of those payrolls is justified.

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In terms of past playoff encounters, the Red Sox bested the "Brooklyn Robins" in the 1916 World Series, led by Babe Ruth, who pitched all 14 innings in a game that took just two hours and 34 minutes to complete.

As of writing this, 5Dimes has the Red Sox as the current betting favorites, checking in at -150 to win their ninth World Series title and first since 2013. Should the Dodgers win, and redeem themselves from last year's Game 7 loss, you can get them at +130. If you think the series is going to go the distance, you can get $209 for every $100 you throw down.

Path to the World Series

The Red Sox powered through the entire American League, posting a record of 108-54. They finished among the Top 3 in almost every offensive category and have carried that offense into the postseason, ranking among the Top 3 in runs, hits, batting average, on base percentage, slugging and OPS. The Red Sox bested the Yankees in the ALDS. And there was a split second after their Game 2 loss where Red Sox faithful weren't sure if the team could rebound to win the series. They rebounded in a big way, scoring 16 runs in a 16-1 win, and they never looked back. Next up was the Houston Astros, who owned the second-best record in the AL. After falling 7-2 in the series opener, the Red Sox responded the only way they know how - by scoring lots of runs. They went on to win the next four games by a combined 27-14, averaging almost seven runs per game. If the Red Sox can continue to put up runs with ease, this series could be over in a hurry.

The Dodgers had a more nerve-wracking run towards the postseason. They flirted with the NL West crown while also flirting with missing the playoffs completely. That's how tough the NL West was this season. They ultimately needed a tie-breaker to secure the division, beating Colorado 5-2 in a tiebreaker. In the NLDS, LA made quick work of Atlanta, thanks to solid pitching (shutouts in Games 1 & 2). Against Milwaukee, the Dodgers had some serious soul searching to do after losing Game 3 and finding themselves down 2-1 in the series. They responded with a 2-1 win in extra innings before ultimately taking the NLCS in Game 7 with a 5-1 win. The Dodgers offense is averaging 3.9 runs per game in this postseason. They are giving up just 2.9. They rank fifth in batting average and slugging but have hit the second most homers with 13 and have been a menace on the base pads, stealing 13 bases.

Key Storylines to Follow

David Price: Let's backtrack a little bit. When the Toronto Blue Jays acquired David Price in 2015, the hope was that Price could push the rotation over the edge and ultimately help them reach the World Series. Price underwhelmed in the postseason, notching only a relief appearance victory. When Price signed a massive contract with the Red Sox in 2016, they demanded the same thing of Price: complete the rotation and bring them back to glory. That didn't happen. And in last year's postseason Price pitched just 6 2/3 innings and took a no decision as Boston fell to the Astros 3-1. This year, Price managed to win his very first playoff game as a starter as he held Houston scoreless through six, giving up just three hits. So which Price are we going to see this series? Price is a dominant pitcher when he is on, but for some strange reason, the postseason seems to bring out the worst in him. If Price can pitch like "regular-season" Price, the Red Sox rotation will simply be too much for the Dodgers lineup to overcome.

Clayton Kershaw: Speaking of polarizing figures and dominant pitchers, no pitcher has been more dominant than Kershaw over the last handful of seasons (when he's healthy). The 2014 NL MVP will be eager to add a World Series ring to his collection of individual awards but will have to do so by overcoming a mixed-bag of results in postseason play. Kershaw is just 8-9 with a 4.09 ERA in the postseason, with his most recent trip to the World Series mound a forgettable one (lasting just 4.2 innings, giving up six runs and three walks). If the Dodgers want to reverse the result from last year and be on the winning end of this World Series, Kershaw will need to play a prominent role and limit the potent Red Sox lineup to one or two runs.

The Lack of DH in LA: I'm sure by now we all know the difference between AL and NL rules. The designated hitter position (or lack thereof) will play a big role in how this series plays out. Games 1, 2, 6 and 7 are all in Boston, which means the Dodgers will get to utilize their deep bench and add a capable bat to the lineup instead of the pitcher's spot. When the series shifts back to LA for Games 3, 4, and 5, the Boston Red Sox will need to figure out a way to keep their big bats in the lineup while not doing so at the expense of defensive capabilities. There are some people out there clamoring for Mookie Betts - a right fielder - to play second base (a position he's played only in the minors. If Alex Cora decides to make that move, that will keep both Betts and J.D. Martinez's bats in the lineup, but the infield and outfield defensive capabilities will take a hit. It's going to be a big challenge for Cora to find a lineup that makes sense when the games are played at Dodger Stadium, and he'll have to come up with one that is balanced on both fronts.

Who is Going to Win?

This series has the makings of being an instant classic. There are several other key storylines to follow that aren't mentioned above, but I believe the Dodgers are in a better position to win this year than they were last year, and I believe they will get the job done and capture their first World Series title since 1988. The Dodgers have an extremely deep team. And with the Red Sox having to figure out a way around the lack of DH spot in the middle portion of the series, the Dodgers will have their best chances at winning those games. The Dodgers, while finishing with 16 wins less than the Red Sox, are a better team than their record indicates, and their run differential of +194 means they played more like a 102-win team. The Dodgers will be in this series from the get-go, and I expect Kershaw to set the tone in Game 1 with a dominating performance. Steeling home-field advantage is going to be crucial, and the Dodgers definitely have what it takes to pull off the mini upset here.

Give me the Dodgers at +130.

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Start:	January 21, 2019 @ 8:00 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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2018 World Series Predictions

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