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Results for Saturday 26th of September 2026
| Handicapper | Units | Dollars |
| Doc's Sports | 5 | $500.00 |
| Raphael Esparza (VSI) | 6 | $600.00 |
| Griffin Murphy | 8 | $820.00 |
| Nick Menken | -8 | $-780.00 |
Saturday 26th of September 2026
Doc's Sports
5 Unit Play. Take #24505 OVER 1.5 Rounds in Robert Bryczek vs. Rodolfo Vieira -130 (Saturday, September 26 | 7:15 p.m. Paramount Plus)
This middleweight matchup should deliver plenty of action, and I expect it to carry deep into the second round. Vieira’s last four UFC fights have all reached the third round, as have all three of Bryczek’s UFC appearances, during which he’s gone 1-2.
With those trends in mind, I see value in taking Over 1.5 rounds and expected this total to be set at 2.5. Both fighters have shown they can take a fight into the later rounds, giving us a strong case for this one to clear the halfway point of Round 2.
Give me OVER 1.5 rounds Saturday night!
Robert Ferringo had no picks
Craig Trapp had no picks
Scott Rickenbach had no picks
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy) had no picks
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
UFC VEGAS 121
6 Unit Play. Take Ailin Perez By Decision -105 over Norma Dumont (9:45p.m., Saturday September 26 Paramount+)
Tony George had no picks
Vernon Croy had no picks
Scott Spreitzer had no picks
August Young
4-Unit Play (24530) Montel Jackson -200 over Ricky Simon (9/26 @ 6PM ET) Jackson’s length and striking power give us a compelling angle in this rematch. He holds a substantial reach advantage and owns eight knockout/TKO victories, including his 18-second finish of Da’Mon Blackshear. That threat matters against an opponent who needs to close the distance to establish his wrestling. Simon won their first meeting in 2018, but that was Jackson’s UFC debut; eight years later, we are assessing a much more experienced fighter. The challenge is keeping Simon from turning repeated takedown attempts into prolonged control. Jackson also enters off decision losses to Deiveson Figueiredo and Raoni Barcelos, so we are not overlooking his recent setbacks. Our preference is his ability to make Simon pay on the way in and produce the more damaging work during the striking exchanges. If Jackson can maintain enough separation, his reach and power provide a clear route to reversing the original result. Take Jackson -200.
4-Unit Play (24506) Rodolfo Vieira -160 over Robert Bryczek (9/26 @ 7:15PM ET) Vieira’s submission game gives us a compelling angle against an opponent who struggled with sustained grappling in his last appearance. Cam Rowston repeatedly grounded Bryczek on his way to winning 30-27 on all three scorecards in May. Vieira brings a particularly dangerous submission threat to those positions: nine of his 11 professional victories have come by submission, including five of his six UFC wins. His arm-triangle finishes of Armen Petrosyan and Cody Brundage demonstrate how quickly defensive work can become a fight-ending problem. Getting there is the challenge. Bryczek owns 12 knockout or TKO victories and stopped Brad Tavares last September, so Vieira cannot afford careless entries or prolonged exchanges. Vieira also enters on a two-fight losing streak. Nevertheless, Bryczek’s recent difficulties on the ground give Vieira a clear area to attack with his strongest weapon. We’re backing his grappling and submission pressure to decide this matchup. Take Vieira -160.
7-Unit Play (24537) Ailin Perez -145 over Norma Dumont (9/26 @ 9:45PM ET) Perez has built a six-fight UFC winning streak around a repeatable strength: getting opponents into grappling exchanges and making them work to escape. She has landed at least two takedowns in every victory during that run, including six against Macy Chiasson in February. Perez also outlanded Chiasson 27-8 in significant strikes, recovering from a difficult opening round to win 29-28 on all three scorecards. That ability to adjust matters against an experienced opponent like Dumont, whose last 11 UFC appearances have gone the distance. Perez needs to turn her takedowns into meaningful offense, and victories over Chiasson and Karol Rosa give us reason to trust that approach against established opposition. There is a material concern: Perez has publicly acknowledged lingering ankle and knee issues from the Chiasson fight. This is a competitive matchup, but her sustained grappling success provides a substantive reason to support her. We’ll take Perez -145.
Strike Point Sports had no picks
Jason Sharpe had no picks
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #24521 Elves Brener (+110) Over Josiah Harrell. (6:25p.m, Saturday September 26th)
Brener comes into this fight as a dog and it is going to be a close fight. The biggest advantage for Brener is that he holds a 4 inch reach advantage and the grappling advantage with 11 wins by submission. He also throws double the significant strike per minute as his opponent as his opponent has a 29% striking defense which is low and leaves him vulnerable to strikers. If and when he leaves himself open then Brener can take advantage of that and also take him down and shoot for the submissions. This fight for Brener is a back against the wall fight, losing his last 3 fights to some good talent and he will look to take advantage of this fight utilizing his striking advantage, reach advantage and submission advantage to secure the win. Take Brener.
Griffin Murphy
1 Unit Play - Take #24505 Robert Bryczek (+145) Over Rodolfo Vieira. (7:15p.m, Saturday September 26th)
Robert is 18-7 with 12 of those wins by KO/TKO, he has legitimate knockout power and has a strong wrestling base and started training out of Xtreme Couture in Vegas to prepare for this fight. He trained alongside high level wrestling and has a significant improvement in his ground defense and grappling. I believe he will stuff the takedown and since he has a 2 inch reach advantage it lets him stay back jab and move while his opponent shoots for the takedowns leaving him open to the strong counter punches. He lands straight shots that are very sharp that if you take one shot you could be sleeping. Vieira absorbs roughly 4 significant strikes per minute and doesn't move his head from the center line too much and Robert will find these openings to hunt for the KO. Take Bryczek.
Griffin Murphy
(This line is available on DraftKings)
7 Unit Play - Take #24537 Ailin Perez (-125) By Submission or Decision Over Norma Dumont. (9:45p.m, Saturday September 26th)
Perez comes into this fight with a 13-2 record and on a 6 fight winning streak.There has been heavy beef and the pre hype involved in this fight that they moved this fight from the prelims to the main card. Perez uses her high level grappling and chain wrestling to smother her amounts with heavy pressure and just continues to take you down. It doesn't matter if she misses the first takedown, she will continue to try to take you down and put you up against the fence. She averages roughly 5 takedowns per 15 minutes. This is going to be the difference in this fight, Dumont doesn't finish many fights and most of those go to decision. If that is the case here then Perez will just completely control her on the ground to take this unanimous victory or by submission. Her striking sets up her gameplan of the takedown and she will need plenty to get this win. Take Perez.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
7-Unit Play. Take #24505 Robert Bryczek ML (+145) over Rodolfo Vieira (7:15p.m, Saturday, September 26th)
Taking Bryczek as an underdog comes down to a classic MMA stylistic clash: elite knockout power against a one-dimensional submission wizard. Vieira is lethal on the mat, but his entire fight game relies on landing early takedowns. If Bryczek uses his reach advantage and solid turnover defense to keep this fight standing during the first five minutes, Vieira's cardio drops off sharply in the second and third rounds. Bryczek packs heavy hands with over ten career knockouts on his resume and excels at catching aggressive grapplers coming inside. Vieira's striking defense has consistently been his Achilles' heel, leaving his chin exposed whenever he gets forced into extended kickboxing exchanges. As long as Bryczek stays disciplined, avoids jumping into guard, and pushes the pace on the feet, he has a massive path to finding a chin-check KO or out-pointing a tired Vieira late.
Nick Menken
3-Unit Play. Take #24534 John Castaneda (Win by Decision: -160) over Alateng Heili (5:35p.m, Saturday, September 26th)
When looking at how this 15-minute matchup plays out, Castaneda holds the exact stylistic profile needed to sweep the scorecards. Castaneda operates with a distinct pace and striking volume edge, pushing nearly 5 significant strikes per minute compared to Heili's modest 2.82. Carrying a massive 5-inch reach advantage, Castaneda can stay on the outside, snap his jab, and out-land Heili in high-volume exchanges without putting himself in danger. Heili relies heavily on pushing a wrestling-heavy game plan, but both fighters bring an identical 75% takedown defense rate into the Octagon. If Heili can't reliably put Castaneda on his back and hold him there, he'll be forced to trade at distance, where he has historically struggled against high-volume strikers like Da'Mon Blackshear and Chris Gutierrez. Expect Castaneda to stuff the takedown attempts, dictate the striking pace over three full rounds, and pull away for a clean unanimous decision victory on the scorecards.
Nick Menken
2-Unit Play. Take #24530 Montel Jackson (To Win by Finish: +200) over Ricky Simon (6:00p.m, Saturday, September 26th)
This rematch carries a completely different dynamic than their first meeting years ago. Jackson has evolved into one of the most physically imposing bantamweights in the UFC, combining elite NCAA Division I wrestling roots with raw, fight-ending power on the feet. The critical matchup factor here is Jackson's ridiculous 6-inch reach advantage. Standing at range, Jackson uses his long jab and straight left to sniper opponents coming in, which is a nightmare for a pressure-heavy wrestler like Simon. Simon relies on relentless level changes and high-volume wrestling, but Jackson's 89% career takedown defense shuts down standard shot selection. When opponents can't take Jackson down, they're forced to trade inside his striking range. Simon has absorbed heavy damage in recent outings when forcing entries against power punchers. Expect Jackson to stuff Simon's early takedown attempts, catch him coming inside with a counter hook or knee, and find the stoppage finish before the final horn.
Nick Menken
Doc's Sports
5 Unit Play. Take #24505 OVER 1.5 Rounds in Robert Bryczek vs. Rodolfo Vieira -130 (Saturday, September 26 | 7:15 p.m. Paramount Plus)This middleweight matchup should deliver plenty of action, and I expect it to carry deep into the second round. Vieira’s last four UFC fights have all reached the third round, as have all three of Bryczek’s UFC appearances, during which he’s gone 1-2.
With those trends in mind, I see value in taking Over 1.5 rounds and expected this total to be set at 2.5. Both fighters have shown they can take a fight into the later rounds, giving us a strong case for this one to clear the halfway point of Round 2.
Give me OVER 1.5 rounds Saturday night!
Robert Ferringo had no picks
Craig Trapp had no picks
Scott Rickenbach had no picks
Arun Shiva (Indian Cowboy) had no picks
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
UFC VEGAS 1216 Unit Play. Take Ailin Perez By Decision -105 over Norma Dumont (9:45p.m., Saturday September 26 Paramount+)
Tony George had no picks
Vernon Croy had no picks
Scott Spreitzer had no picks
August Young
4-Unit Play (24530) Montel Jackson -200 over Ricky Simon (9/26 @ 6PM ET) Jackson’s length and striking power give us a compelling angle in this rematch. He holds a substantial reach advantage and owns eight knockout/TKO victories, including his 18-second finish of Da’Mon Blackshear. That threat matters against an opponent who needs to close the distance to establish his wrestling. Simon won their first meeting in 2018, but that was Jackson’s UFC debut; eight years later, we are assessing a much more experienced fighter. The challenge is keeping Simon from turning repeated takedown attempts into prolonged control. Jackson also enters off decision losses to Deiveson Figueiredo and Raoni Barcelos, so we are not overlooking his recent setbacks. Our preference is his ability to make Simon pay on the way in and produce the more damaging work during the striking exchanges. If Jackson can maintain enough separation, his reach and power provide a clear route to reversing the original result. Take Jackson -200.4-Unit Play (24506) Rodolfo Vieira -160 over Robert Bryczek (9/26 @ 7:15PM ET) Vieira’s submission game gives us a compelling angle against an opponent who struggled with sustained grappling in his last appearance. Cam Rowston repeatedly grounded Bryczek on his way to winning 30-27 on all three scorecards in May. Vieira brings a particularly dangerous submission threat to those positions: nine of his 11 professional victories have come by submission, including five of his six UFC wins. His arm-triangle finishes of Armen Petrosyan and Cody Brundage demonstrate how quickly defensive work can become a fight-ending problem. Getting there is the challenge. Bryczek owns 12 knockout or TKO victories and stopped Brad Tavares last September, so Vieira cannot afford careless entries or prolonged exchanges. Vieira also enters on a two-fight losing streak. Nevertheless, Bryczek’s recent difficulties on the ground give Vieira a clear area to attack with his strongest weapon. We’re backing his grappling and submission pressure to decide this matchup. Take Vieira -160.
7-Unit Play (24537) Ailin Perez -145 over Norma Dumont (9/26 @ 9:45PM ET) Perez has built a six-fight UFC winning streak around a repeatable strength: getting opponents into grappling exchanges and making them work to escape. She has landed at least two takedowns in every victory during that run, including six against Macy Chiasson in February. Perez also outlanded Chiasson 27-8 in significant strikes, recovering from a difficult opening round to win 29-28 on all three scorecards. That ability to adjust matters against an experienced opponent like Dumont, whose last 11 UFC appearances have gone the distance. Perez needs to turn her takedowns into meaningful offense, and victories over Chiasson and Karol Rosa give us reason to trust that approach against established opposition. There is a material concern: Perez has publicly acknowledged lingering ankle and knee issues from the Chiasson fight. This is a competitive matchup, but her sustained grappling success provides a substantive reason to support her. We’ll take Perez -145.
Strike Point Sports had no picks
Jason Sharpe had no picks
Griffin Murphy
2 Unit Play - Take #24521 Elves Brener (+110) Over Josiah Harrell. (6:25p.m, Saturday September 26th)Brener comes into this fight as a dog and it is going to be a close fight. The biggest advantage for Brener is that he holds a 4 inch reach advantage and the grappling advantage with 11 wins by submission. He also throws double the significant strike per minute as his opponent as his opponent has a 29% striking defense which is low and leaves him vulnerable to strikers. If and when he leaves himself open then Brener can take advantage of that and also take him down and shoot for the submissions. This fight for Brener is a back against the wall fight, losing his last 3 fights to some good talent and he will look to take advantage of this fight utilizing his striking advantage, reach advantage and submission advantage to secure the win. Take Brener.
Griffin Murphy
1 Unit Play - Take #24505 Robert Bryczek (+145) Over Rodolfo Vieira. (7:15p.m, Saturday September 26th)
Robert is 18-7 with 12 of those wins by KO/TKO, he has legitimate knockout power and has a strong wrestling base and started training out of Xtreme Couture in Vegas to prepare for this fight. He trained alongside high level wrestling and has a significant improvement in his ground defense and grappling. I believe he will stuff the takedown and since he has a 2 inch reach advantage it lets him stay back jab and move while his opponent shoots for the takedowns leaving him open to the strong counter punches. He lands straight shots that are very sharp that if you take one shot you could be sleeping. Vieira absorbs roughly 4 significant strikes per minute and doesn't move his head from the center line too much and Robert will find these openings to hunt for the KO. Take Bryczek.
Griffin Murphy
(This line is available on DraftKings)
7 Unit Play - Take #24537 Ailin Perez (-125) By Submission or Decision Over Norma Dumont. (9:45p.m, Saturday September 26th)
Perez comes into this fight with a 13-2 record and on a 6 fight winning streak.There has been heavy beef and the pre hype involved in this fight that they moved this fight from the prelims to the main card. Perez uses her high level grappling and chain wrestling to smother her amounts with heavy pressure and just continues to take you down. It doesn't matter if she misses the first takedown, she will continue to try to take you down and put you up against the fence. She averages roughly 5 takedowns per 15 minutes. This is going to be the difference in this fight, Dumont doesn't finish many fights and most of those go to decision. If that is the case here then Perez will just completely control her on the ground to take this unanimous victory or by submission. Her striking sets up her gameplan of the takedown and she will need plenty to get this win. Take Perez.
Griffin Murphy
Nick Menken
7-Unit Play. Take #24505 Robert Bryczek ML (+145) over Rodolfo Vieira (7:15p.m, Saturday, September 26th)Taking Bryczek as an underdog comes down to a classic MMA stylistic clash: elite knockout power against a one-dimensional submission wizard. Vieira is lethal on the mat, but his entire fight game relies on landing early takedowns. If Bryczek uses his reach advantage and solid turnover defense to keep this fight standing during the first five minutes, Vieira's cardio drops off sharply in the second and third rounds. Bryczek packs heavy hands with over ten career knockouts on his resume and excels at catching aggressive grapplers coming inside. Vieira's striking defense has consistently been his Achilles' heel, leaving his chin exposed whenever he gets forced into extended kickboxing exchanges. As long as Bryczek stays disciplined, avoids jumping into guard, and pushes the pace on the feet, he has a massive path to finding a chin-check KO or out-pointing a tired Vieira late.
Nick Menken
3-Unit Play. Take #24534 John Castaneda (Win by Decision: -160) over Alateng Heili (5:35p.m, Saturday, September 26th)
When looking at how this 15-minute matchup plays out, Castaneda holds the exact stylistic profile needed to sweep the scorecards. Castaneda operates with a distinct pace and striking volume edge, pushing nearly 5 significant strikes per minute compared to Heili's modest 2.82. Carrying a massive 5-inch reach advantage, Castaneda can stay on the outside, snap his jab, and out-land Heili in high-volume exchanges without putting himself in danger. Heili relies heavily on pushing a wrestling-heavy game plan, but both fighters bring an identical 75% takedown defense rate into the Octagon. If Heili can't reliably put Castaneda on his back and hold him there, he'll be forced to trade at distance, where he has historically struggled against high-volume strikers like Da'Mon Blackshear and Chris Gutierrez. Expect Castaneda to stuff the takedown attempts, dictate the striking pace over three full rounds, and pull away for a clean unanimous decision victory on the scorecards.
Nick Menken
2-Unit Play. Take #24530 Montel Jackson (To Win by Finish: +200) over Ricky Simon (6:00p.m, Saturday, September 26th)
This rematch carries a completely different dynamic than their first meeting years ago. Jackson has evolved into one of the most physically imposing bantamweights in the UFC, combining elite NCAA Division I wrestling roots with raw, fight-ending power on the feet. The critical matchup factor here is Jackson's ridiculous 6-inch reach advantage. Standing at range, Jackson uses his long jab and straight left to sniper opponents coming in, which is a nightmare for a pressure-heavy wrestler like Simon. Simon relies on relentless level changes and high-volume wrestling, but Jackson's 89% career takedown defense shuts down standard shot selection. When opponents can't take Jackson down, they're forced to trade inside his striking range. Simon has absorbed heavy damage in recent outings when forcing entries against power punchers. Expect Jackson to stuff Simon's early takedown attempts, catch him coming inside with a counter hook or knee, and find the stoppage finish before the final horn.
Nick Menken