Betting NFL Win Totals: Tips and Expert Wagering Advice
"By failing to prepare you are preparing to fail."
- Benjamin Franklin
Ben Franklin was a wise old bird that loved physics, colonial unity and the no-huddle offense. And this quote is the perfect summation of what it takes to be successful betting on NFL win totals.
I have been one of the most prolific NFL futures bettors in the sports information industry. And whenever people ask me for tips on how to profit betting on NFL win totals, the first thing that I tell them is that it takes months of preparation before I place a single dollar down on a given team.
In fact, preparation for one NFL season begins in the season prior. During any given season I am constantly making notes and looking ahead to how teams will be perceived at the end of the year. There are some NFL clubs that you can tell are just playing way over their heads and will be overvalued and overrated heading into the next year. Still, other teams are forced to endure excruciating seasons full of bad luck, fluke plays and the general insanity that draws most fans to the sport to begin with.
I will give you an example. In 2016 the New Orleans Saints were the epitome of a hard-luck 7-9 team. They lost their opener because of a blatant blown fourth-down call. They lost another game because of a blocked extra point returned for a two-point conversion. And several more losses came in heartbreaking fashion. I recall thinking during that season that the Saints were much better than their record would eventually indicate, and I pegged them as a potential bounce-back candidate in 2017.
I put my money where my mouth was, making the Saints my biggest futures wager in 2017. And sure enough, they sailed over their NFL win total (8.5) with an 11-5 campaign.
Of course, that's just one of about two dozen tips I have to beat NFL season win totals. (Start thinking about them the year before.) But there are several other important factors to consider when lining up what is generally a player's first wager of the season. And being able to successfully beat the NFL season win total market is crucial because there is a direct correlation between overall against the spread profitability for the season and how teams fared against their preseason Las Vegas win totals. In fact, over the past decade roughly 80 percent of teams that beat or failed to beat their NFL win total finished with a corresponding winning or losing ATS record for the year.
So if you can beat Las Vegas' first football offering - the NFL season win totals - then you can set yourself up for an outstanding football betting year against the spread.
Below are three simple tips for establishing a strong perspective on how to play Vegas NFL win totals. And once you establish which teams are going up and which are going down then you have a decided advantage when the pads start to crack:
1. Bet the playoff teams to go 'under' their NFL season win total.
Six teams are going back and six are staying home. That is generally how the NFL postseason has worked over the course of the last dozen years: approximately half of the playoff field will make it back the following January, while the other half will spend New Year's wondering where it all went wrong.
While essentially an equal split make it back to the playoffs, a majority of teams that make the postseason don't beat their NFL season win total the following year. Over the course of the past decade, teams that make the playoffs are just 52-68 against their win total the following season. While that 56.7 percent success rate doesn't sound very sexy, you can boost it up to a clean 60 percent system by simply eliminating the one team that you should never bet against: the New England Patriots.
Deduct the 8-2 mark for the Patriots, and bettors are 66-44 by wagering against playoff teams. At an average of -110 for those futures, a $500 bettor would be up around $10,000 over the past decade following this simple tip.
2. Be aware of how teams performed in close games the previous season.
With the level of parity in the NFL, the margin of error for teams is razor-thin. One play - a bad snap, a tipped pass, a blown call - can mean the difference between winning and losing. As a result, teams that either win or lose a significant amount of close games one year are usually due to have things go the other way the following season.
The magic number for our net close losses system is 4.0. You can calculate a value for close losses by subtracting the losses in games decided by six points or less from the wins in those close games. For instance, if a team went 5-1 in close games then their net close wins value is +4. If they went 2-4 then they are -2.
Teams that finished +4 or better are due for a regression and likely to finish 'under' their NFL win total the next year. Any team that finished -4 or worse in net close losses generally bounces back the following season and beats its win projection. Bet these teams accordingly.
Over the course of the last five years, this system would've gone 22-11, an outstanding 67 percent success rate. Going back to 2005, this system has gone an exceptional 68-38, a 64.1 percent winning percentage over a 13-year period.
3. Bet against last year's biggest overachievers and underachievers.
The magic number for this system is 4.0 wins, and the principle is similar to my net close wins system. Teams that beat their NFL win total by four or more games one season are one that we want to fade the following year. Conversely, teams that come up short of their Las Vegas season win total by four or more are squads that you want to bet 'over' the following fall.
The underlying theory behind this is sound. And it fits into our general themes for betting NFL win totals. When a team "comes out of nowhere" and has a big season it can lead to a playoff berth. That will already make that team overrated going into the next season. But those teams usually make their move based on winning a lot of close games, which also puts them in a regression situation the following year.
Las Vegas generally doesn't miss by much with their numbers. But when they do, they tend to overreact to those outliers by overcorrecting the following season.
Over the last three years this system is only 13-11. However, between 2005-2017 this system has produced at a solid 58.9 percent, going 56-39.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
Robert Ferringo has been the top football handicapper in the country the past seven years, earning nearly $28,000 in total football profit. He has also posted seven of nine winning seasons (including back-to-back winning years) and produced 26 of 41 winning football months and an amazing 45 of 70 winning football months over the past decade. Robert has eight of 10 winning NFL preseasons and he is at nearly 60 percent winners over his last 900 totals picks. Also, Robert's proprietary KING College Football Betting System has posted three of five winning seasons. Robert is looking for a third straight winning football year and wants more profit this fall. SIGN UP HERE TODAY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR 3-FOR-1 FOOTBALL SPECIALS!
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