Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins Expert MLB Picks 6/17/2019

Monday, June 17, 2019

Target Field

Get todays MLB odds and lines on this game.

Probable Pitchers: Rick Porcello vs. Jose Berrios

Jorge Polanco and the Minnesota Twins (47-22, 1st in AL Central) play the Boston Red Sox (38-34, 3rd in AL East) at Target Field on Monday, June 17, 2019. The Red Sox open this contest at +105 while the Twins are coming in at -115. The O/U has been set at 9.5.

The Red Sox have been hot and cold for Vegas oddsmakers, having gone 38-34-0 SU. The Twins cover 68.1% of the time, going 47-22-0 straight up. The Twins have been a very good bet for MLB bettors as the favorite, going 31-12-0 SU. Boston is covering 36.4% of the time as an underdog, having gone 4-7-0 straight up.

Valuable Boston Red Sox Betting Trends

The Red Sox have been a strong Over bet for over/under baseball wagerers, having gone 39-30-3.

The Red Sox cover 55.3% of the time as the away team, having gone 21-17-0 straight up.

Important Minnesota Twins Betting Trends

The Twins cover 69.7% of the time at Target Field, going 23-10-0 SU.

The Twins have been a strong Over bet for over/under baseball wagerers, having gone 37-28-4.

Related: Launch Angle Stat: Advice for MLB Handicapping and Betting

Key Boston Red Sox Injuries

6/15/2019 Blake Swihart C Oblique Expected to be out until at least Jun 28
6/15/2019 Nathan Eovaldi SP Elbow Expected to be out until at least Jul 7
6/15/2019 Tzu-Wei Lin 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Jun 17
6/14/2019 Heath Hembree RP Forearm Expected to be out until at least Jun 21
6/13/2019 Steve Pearce 1B Back Expected to be out until at least Jun 17
6/9/2019 Tyler Thornburg RP Hip Expected to be out until at least Jun 22
6/8/2019 Mitch Moreland 1B Quadriceps Expected to be out until at least Jul 12
6/8/2019 Hector Velazquez RP Back Expected to be out until at least Jun 17
5/28/2019 Dustin Pedroia 2B Knee Expected to be out until at least Sep 1
11/1/2019 Austin Maddox RP Shoulder Out for the season

Key Minnesota Twins Injuries

6/15/2019 Byron Buxton CF Wrist Probable for Jun 16
6/1/2019 Adalberto Mejia RP Calf Expected to be out until at least Jun 20

Useful Pitching Statistics

The Red Sox have a 38-34 overall record this season. Starting pitcher Rick Porcello has a 4-6 record with an earned run average of 4.69 and a WHIP of 1.35 this season. He has 66 strikeouts over his 80.2 innings pitched and he's given up 85 hits. He's allowed 9.5 hits per 9 innings and he has a FIP of 4.43. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.00 and they have given up 235 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .227 against the bullpen and they've struck out 319 hitters and walked 117 batters. As a team, Boston allows 8.3 hits per nine innings while striking out 10 batters per nine innings. They are 14th in the league in team earned run average at 4.35. The Red Sox pitchers collectively have given up 593 base hits and 312 earned runs. They have allowed 88 home runs this season, ranking them 19th in the league. Boston as a pitching staff has walked 231 batters and struck out 721. They have walked 3.2 men per 9 innings while striking out 10 per 9. They have a team WHIP of 1.28 and their FIP as a unit is 3.95.

Related: Get MLB predictions on all of today's games

Hitting Statistics

As a team Boston is hitting .261, good for 7th in the league. The Red Sox hold a .448 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .339, which is good for 4th in baseball. They rank 7th in MLB with 9.1 hits per game. Mookie Betts is hitting .260 with an on-base percentage of .382. He has 70 hits this season in 269 at bats with 31 runs batted in. He has a slugging percentage of .446 and an OPS+ of 119. J.D. Martinez is hitting .304 this year and he has an on-base percentage of .381. He has totaled 73 hits and he has driven in 39 men in 240 at bats. His OPS+ is 147 while his slugging percentage is at .571. The Red Sox have 653 hits, including 136 doubles and 105 home runs. Boston has walked 285 times so far this season and they have struck out 604 times as a unit. They have left 519 men on base and have a team OPS of .788. They score 5.36 runs per contest and have scored a total of 386 runs this year.

Useful Pitching Statistics

Minnesota has a 47-22 overall mark this year. With an earned run average of 3.01, Jose Berrios has a 8-2 record and a 1.10 WHIP. He has 84 strikeouts over the 89.2 innings he's pitched. He also has given up 82 hits. He's allowing 8.2 hits per nine innings and his FIP stands at 3.77. The bullpen has an earned run average of 4.74 and they have given up 217 base hits on the year. Teams are hitting .256 against the Twins bullpen. Their relievers have struck out 229 batters and walked 92 opposing hitters. As a team, Minnesota allows 8.5 hits per nine innings while striking out 8.8 batters per nine innings. They are 7th in the league in team earned run average at 3.95. The Twins pitchers as a team have surrendered 574 base knocks and 268 earned runs this season. They have given up 85 home runs this year, which ranks 22nd in Major League Baseball. Minnesota as a staff has walked 195 hitters and struck out 599 batters. They give up a walk 2.9 times per 9 innings while they strike out 8.8 per 9. Their team WHIP is 1.26 while their FIP as a staff is 4.09.

Hitting Statistics

As a team, they are batting .273, good for 1st in the league. The Twins hold a .514 team slugging percentage and an on-base percentage of .340, which is good for 3rd in baseball. They rank 2nd in MLB with 9.4 hits per contest. Jorge Polanco comes into this matchup batting .333 with an OBP of .393. He has 89 hits this year along with 37 RBI in 267 AB's. He maintains a slugging percentage of .562 with an OPS+ of 154. Eddie Rosario is hitting .260 this season and he has an OBP of .295. He has collected 68 hits in 262 at bats while driving in 52 runs. He has an OPS+ of 113 and a slugging percentage of .519. The Twins as a unit have 651 base hits, including 149 doubles and 135 homers. Minnesota has walked 216 times this year and they have struck out on 530 occasions. They have had 454 men left on base and have an OPS of .854. They have scored 5.96 runs per game and totaled 411 runs this season.

Who will win tonight's Red Sox/Twins MLB game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Twins -115

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