NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Utah State Aggies Week 11
The mid-major report Week 11 edition is ready to go. The Utah State Aggies are taking the nation by storm. They are all the way up to 14th in the AP Top 25! It's been a dream season for Utah State, and it's been fun to be following along.
I chose to follow the Utah State football program this year because of their potential for a breakout season. The Aggies haven't had a winning season since 2014. They were 6-7 a year ago and lost a bowl game to New Mexico State. Utah State has lost their last eight games decided by a touchdown or less. They were on the cusp of breaking out last year but couldn't get over the hump. I'll be following Utah State beat writers, following players and coaches on Twitter, and reading the press conference transcripts to find information on the Aggies. The goal is for me to become an expert on this Utah State Aggies team.
How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done overall? Coming into this season, the overall record is 48 wins and 33 losses with a gain of $2,020. Last year, I followed the Marshall Thundering Herd as they tried to recover from a bad season in 2016. Marshall did have a nice bounce back season, and the selections last year went 8-5 and we finished up $520. It was nice to have another strong season.
There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Traveling to Hawaii for a football game can be really tricky. There is always some question as to how a team will react to the long trip. Utah State was ready from the opening kickoff last weekend. The Aggies were up 28-3 after a quarter of play. Utah State ended up rolling to a huge 56-17 victory. First, I wanted to point out how unique this game was in terms of the scoring. It was 28-3 after one quarter. We then saw a scoreless second quarter. There were 42 points in the third quarter (Utah State scored 28 of those). There was then a scoreless fourth quarter. It was a wild one. In fact, the 'over' 70.5 selection for two-units in last week's article cashed in despite two scoreless quarters. It's extremely rare to see quarters of 31 and 42 points and two scoreless quarters. What a game!
Utah State put up 601 yards of total offense in last weekend's contest. Darwin Thompson ran for 141 yards on only 13 carries. Gerold Bright also ran for 121 yards on 16 carries. The Aggies averaged 7.9 yards per carry as a team. Nine different players caught a pass in the big win. Utah State continues to show their amazing depth every week. How about the depth on defense? There were 22 different Utah State players with at least one tackle in the win over Hawaii. Utah State went 8/14 on third down. The Aggies held Hawaii to 2/14 on third down. If you are going to find one thing to be concerned about for Utah State, it would be the penalties. The Aggies were whistled for 12 penalties for 105 yards.
Notes of Interest
-Lafe Peavler, writer for Deseret News, wrote this week about the dynamic duo of Thompson and Bright in the Utah State backfield. They have combined for 194 carries for 1,336 yards and 20 touchdowns this year. Those two guys played a key role in last week's game since quarterback Jordan Love left in the second quarter with an undisclosed injury. Thompson was a NJCAA second-team All-America player at Northeastern Oklahoma A&M College last year. Bright was a dual-threat quarterback in high school, but he's made a name for himself at running back at Utah State. Both of these guys are very explosive, and it makes this Utah State team much more dangerous. At the beginning of the year many said, myself included, that if this team could get a running game the offense would be dangerous. They found a running game!
-How balanced is Utah State? They are 14th in the country in yards per play at 6.68. The Aggies are 13th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.64.
-Utah State hosts San Jose State this weekend. There are a couple key advantages for the Aggies I wanted to point out. Utah State is +16 in sack margin this year, which is seventh best in the country. San Jose State is -23 in sack margin, which is fifth worst in the country. San Jose State is dead last in the country, averaging only 2.06 yards per carry. Utah State's run defense is 20th in the nation, allowing only 3.37 yards per carry. San Jose State is unlikely to be able to run in this contest.
-San Jose State is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven conference games.
-Utah State is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.
-Utah State is 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.
-The 'under' is 5-0 in San Jose State's last five road games.
-The over is 22-7 in Utah State's last 29 games overall.
San Jose State at Utah State College Football Odds
The oddsmakers opened Utah State as 29-point favorites here. The Aggies are now favored by 31 points across the board. The larger movement has come in the total. The posted total opened at 62.5 points. The total is now 65 points across the board.
San Jose State at Utah State College Football Picks
I've broken this game down many times, but it's hard for me to find any edge in this one. Utah State should roll to a big win here, but that is priced into the market. San Jose State is clearly improved of late, but they don't pose much of a threat here.
There are times when it is most prudent to simply pass on a game if you feel you have no edge. It's been a great year with the selections, but I'm not going to force a play here. I'm passing this week and will be back with a selection on next week's game against Colorado State.
Pick- No Selection This Week
Season Results- 8 Wins 0 Losses (+$1,130)
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