NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Utah State Aggies Week 2
The college football mid-major betting report is back for week two. It was an exciting week one for Utah State's program. The Aggies did end up falling a bit short, but they gave Michigan State an extremely tough fight despite being 23.5-point underdogs.
How have the selections on the mid-major betting report done overall? The overall record is 48 wins and 33 losses with a gain of $2,020. Last year, I followed the Marshall Thundering Herd as they tried to recover from a bad season in 2016. Marshall did have a nice bounce back season, and the selections last year went 8-5 and we finished up $520. It was nice to have another strong season.
I'll be following the Utah State Aggies this year. Why Utah State? The Aggies haven't had a winning season since 2014. They were 6-7 a year ago and lost a bowl game to New Mexico State. Utah State has lost their last eight games decided by a touchdown or less. They were on the cusp of breaking out last year but couldn't get over the hump. We'll see if they can do it this season. I'll be following beat writers, following players and coaches on Twitter, and reading the press conference transcripts to find information on the Aggies. I'll be looking to make myself an expert on this Utah State football team.
There will be a selection on each game at the end of the weekly article. We'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick, which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Utah State stayed close the whole way against Michigan State, and it was no fluke either. Michigan State gained 5.44 yards per play in the game. Utah State averaged 5.01 yards per play. Michigan State had 23 first downs, while Utah State had 22 first downs. Utah State took a 31-30 lead with six minutes left, but Michigan State responded with a touchdown and two-point conversion with two minutes remaining to take a 38-31 lead. Utah State moved into Michigan State territory on their final drive, but Jordan Love was intercepted and Michigan State held on for the win.
Utah State finished the game with only 25 rushing yards. They averaged 1.0 yards per carry. Michigan State's defense might be the best rushing defense they will face all year, but Utah State has to be a little bit concerned about their rushing attack. Love threw for more than 300 yards, but he threw no touchdowns and two interceptions. He had some trouble with turnovers last year, and Utah State needs him to take better care of the football.
David Woodward had 16 tackles for Utah State in last week's contest. He's part of a tremendous group of linebackers for Utah State. Tipa Galeai was a big name transfer from Virginia Tech in the offseason, and he had two big sacks for the Aggies in week one.
Notes of Interest
-Utah State coach Matt Wells said at his press conference this week, "I'm really proud of our players' efforts Friday night and the level of physicality that we played with on both sides of the ball." He continued to say while Michigan State was second in rushing defense in the country last year, he wasn't willing to give his team an excuse for not running the ball better last week.
-New Mexico State is this week's opponent, and they beat Utah State in overtime last year in the Arizona Bowl. You might think that Utah State would be keyed in on getting revenge in this one. Jason Turner, Utah State beat writer for the The Herald Journal, put together an interesting piece about Utah State not letting this game be about revenge. Matt Wells said, "It's all about the 2018 Utah State Aggies and the 2018 New Mexico State Aggies." He said that this week is all about Utah State focusing on themselves and not on New Mexico State.
-New Mexico State has already played two games, and they have been beaten down badly in both of those games. New Mexico State will be without star defensive lineman Cedric Wilcots (academics). Two of their starting linebackers are also questionable for this game with injuries, so monitor the injury report here.
-New Mexico State is just 1-5 against the spread in their last six nonconference games.
-New Mexico State is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 following an ATS loss.
-Utah State is 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games overall.
-Utah State is 5-1 ATS in their last six against a team with a losing record.
-The 'over' is 27-8-1 in New Mexico State's last 36 road games.
-The over is 15-6 in Utah State's last 21 games.
New Mexico State at Utah State College Football Odds
Utah State opened as 21-point favorites, but they have been bet up to 24-point home favorites in this contest. The posted total opened at 58.5, but it has been bet all the way up to 62 points. There has been a lot of early week line movement on this game.
New Mexico State at Utah State College Football Picks
New Mexico State had a terrible travel spot last week. They now go from playing in Minnesota to traveling to play in altitude in Utah. New Mexico State's offense has been a mess this year. They had to replace their star quarterback and running back, as well as their top receiver. So far the transition hasn't been smooth at all. The defense was very good last year, but they are missing multiple top guys from that unit.
I like the Utah State team in general, and I will side with them here. However, I can only make this a one-unit play because -24 is no bargain on the spread here.
Pick #334 Utah State -24 (1 Unit)
Season Results- 1 Wins 0 Losses (+$100)
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