Free NCAA Football Mid-Major Week 10 Pick from Expert Handicapper
The month of November is one of the best times of the season to bet on college football. The top teams in the nation are battling for a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff with the rest of the ranked teams battling for a spot in a major bowl. Oftentimes, the hungriest teams this time of the year are the Mid-Major programs trying to secure enough wins to qualify for a postseason game.
Even when everything points in one direction, these is a reason why there is no such thing as a "lock" when comes to betting on sports. Last week, I went with the "over" on 44 points in the Northern Illinois at BYU game as my free Mid-Major play, and the Huskies went onto win 7-6. It is back to drawing board this week with a free pick for a game in Conference USA.
NCAAF Week 10 Mid-Major Top 25 Betting Overview
All the major polls use slightly different criteria when it comes to determining the top 25 college football teams. Following the initial release of this season's College Football Playoff rankings, the AAC's Central Florida Knights did not get all that much love from the voters at No. 12 after cracking the top 10 in both the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll.
The Knights face a tough test on Thursday night as 10.5-point home favorites against Temple in an attempt to extend a straight-up 20-game winning streak that dates back to the beginning of last season. They climbed to No. 6 in the final CFP rankings for that season, so it will be interesting to see how high UCF can climb if it continues to win all of its games.
A new Mid-Major on the initial CFP list this week is the Mountain West's Fresno State Bulldogs at No. 23 following a 50-20 pasting of Hawaii last Saturday as 24.5-point home favorites. They are now 7-1 SU with a matching 7-1 record against the spread. The Bulldogs will be on the road this Saturday against UNLV as 25-point favorites.
NCAAF Mid-Major Free Pick of the Week
C-USA's Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are 4-1 SU in conference play this season as part of an overall record of 5-3. They have covered the spread in three of those five C-USA matchups heading into this Friday night's game against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers as 13.5-point home favorites. Game time from Floyd Stadium is set for 8 p.m. on CBS Sports Network.
It has been a rough campaign for the Hilltoppers at 1-7 SU in the midst of a four-game losing streak that has them still looking for their first conference win. They are 4-3 ATS, but they have failed to cover in their last three games, including a 37-34 loss to Old Dominion on Oct. 20 as four-point home favorites. In four previous games on the road this season, Western Kentucky is 1-3 SU and 3-1 ATS. One of the big reasons it has only one SU win this season is an offense that is averaging just 19.8 points per game.
The Blue Raiders' lone C-USA loss was a tight 24-21 setback against Florida International as two-point road underdogs on Oct. 13 in what turned out to be a key battle for first place in the East Division standings. They come into this division battle scoring an average of 28.4 points a game, which could make it hard for the Hilltoppers to keep pace in this matchup. Terelle West rushed for 120 yards and a score on 13 carries for Middle Tennessee in last Saturday's 51-17 romp against ODU as four-point road favorites, and he appears to be poised for another productive day running the ball on Friday night.
I went against Western Kentucky last week against Florida International in a 38-17 loss at home as a three-point underdog and cashed a winner. I cannot see the Hilltoppers covering the 13.5 points on the road this week against the next best team in the C-USA East.
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