Free NCAA Football Mid-Major Week 11 Pick from Expert Handicapper
All season long, I have been looking for betting value in college football's five Mid-Major conferences. Whether it is my home conference, the Mountain West, or all the way in the Deep South in the Sun Belt Conference, I can always find a game or two with a soft betting line that leans my way.
Once you get this late in the schedule, the oddsmakers' lines get sharper and sharper for games involving nationally-ranked teams since the books know that this is where most of the action gravitates towards. I continue to tell my clients that the best value on the board in any sport is in the matchups flying well under the betting public's radar.
NCAAF Week 10 Mid-Major Top 25 Betting Overview
This past Tuesday marked the second release the College Football Playoff rankings. And despite the fact that the Central Florida Knights keep beating every team they face, the strength of schedule in the AAC keeps them spinning their wheels at No. 12. I can understand why this is the case in light of the major programs ahead of UCF on the list, but I will continue to bet on the Knights from time to time at 6-2 against the spread.
Fresno State is the only other Mid Major to gain recognition for its accomplishments in the Mountain West from the CFP voting committee at No. 23. The Bulldogs are 8-1 SU and another one of my favorite betting teams with a matching 8-1 record ATS. They are also red hot right now with seven covers in a row. Once any team covers the spread in three-straight games, they catch my eye as someone to go with every week until they lose.
NCAAF Mid-Major Free Pick of the Week
Coming off last week's winner in Conference USA with Middle Tennessee covering against Western Kentucky, I am moving south this week to a Sun Belt showdown between the Troy Trojans and the Georgia Southern Eagles. Each team is 7-2 SU, with the 5-0 Trojans holding a one game lead over 4-1 Georgia Southern for the lead in the East Division title race.
Troy comes in as a slight one-point road favorite for this 1 p.m. start at Allen E. Paulson Stadium with the total set at 47.5 points. The Trojans have been a solid bet this season at 6-2-1 ATS with the total going "over" in six of the nine games. They knocked off Louisiana-Lafayette last Saturday 26-16 to cover as 7.5-point road favorites after covering an 11-point spread on the road in a 38-17 victory against South Alabama on Oct. 23.
Sawyer Smith has taken over the starting role at quarterback, and he continues to settle in with 62 completions on 97 attempts for 823 yards and eight touchdown throws. Troy still relies heavily on a run game that is averaging close to 202 yards a game. I would look for a heavy dose of BJ Smith as the team's top rusher with 860 yards on the year.
The Eagles are also a solid bet this season by matching their 7-2 start ATS. One big concern for Saturday is how this team will react to last Saturday's 44-25 loss to Louisiana-Monroe as a seven-point road favorite. This snapped a SU five-game winning streak to put a major kink in its Sun Bet title plans.
This is an offense that relies almost completely on the run with an average of 260.4 yards a game verses a passing attack that is not even averaging 75 yards per game. Georgia Southern's defensive secondary got lit up last week to hinder an offense that is not built to play from behind.
Troy has been able to cover in seven of its last eight conference games, with the other contest ending as a push. I really think defense will be the deciding factor in this matchup with a decided edge going to the Trojans. Go with the road team in this one SU and ATS.
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