Free NCAA Football Mid-Major Week 8 Pick from Expert Handicapper
Approaching the mid-way point of the college football season, the betting lines for games involving teams from the five major conferences in Division IA (FBS) continue to get sharper and sharper with each passing week. True betting value against the books also gets harder and harder to find.
This is the main reason why I continue to focus a great deal of my time handicapping games in the five Mid-Major conferences that also make up the D-IA lineup. The Oddsmakers have been able to sharpen these betting lines as well, but you can usually find some solid value if you look hard enough.
For this week's free Mid-Major pick for Doc's, I have focused my energy on the top team in the Mid-American Conference given its solid edge over this Saturday's opponent.
NCAAF Week 8 Mid-Major Top 25 Betting Overview
The American Athletic Conference (AAC) has more teams ranked in the latest AP Top 25 than the ACC as a Power 5 conference. Central Florida has climbed to No. 10 on the strength of a 6-0 straight-up start while going 4-2 against the spread. This fast start has extended the Knights' overall SU winning steak to 19 games after going a perfect 13-0 last season. UCF will put its winning streak on the line this Saturday as a 21-point road favorite against East Carolina.
The Cincinnati Bearcats moved up five spots to No. 20 during their bye week after posting a 6-0 SU start. They face a tough test on the road this Saturday as 3.5-point road underdogs against Temple. The Bearcats are a profitable 5-1 ATS, with the total going "over" in three of their last four games.
The third-ranked team in the AAC at No. 21 is the South Florida Bulls at 6-0 SU, but they have been less than a sure bet ATS at 2-4. They will play host to Connecticut this Saturday as heavy 34-point favorites.
NCAAF Mid-Major Free Pick of the Week
The MAC's Buffalo Bulls are off to a SU 6-1 start with last Saturday's 24-6 victory at home against Akron as 12-point favorites. They have been able to cover ATS in five of their last six games. The total went "over" in five of those contests before staying "under" 55 points in that most recent win.
Buffalo will be on the road this Saturday as a slight one-point favorite against the Toledo Rockets in a 12 p.m. (ET) start on ESPN+. The betting line for the total has been set at 62.5 points. The Bulls have been able to establish themselves as the top team in the MAC this season behind a very balanced offensive attack that is averaging 33.1 points per game. Tyree Jackson has 1,543 yards passing and 18 touchdown throws at quarterback, and Kevin Marks has racked up 530 yards and seven scores on the ground.
Toledo is an even 3-3 SU on the year with a 2-4 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of its last five games. Closing as two-point road favorites in last week's matchup against Eastern Michigan, the Rockets came up short in a 28-26 loss. The week before, they failed to cover as heavy 23-point home favorites in a wild 52-36 victory against Bowling Green.
The Rockets also have some firepower on offense behind duel threat Mitchell Guadagni at quarterback. He has thrown for 904 yards while also leading the team in rushing with 387 yards. Toledo is averaging 43 PPG, but my concern for Saturday is a defense that is allowing an average of 34.8 points.
Buffalo comes into this inter-division clash with a 4-0 record ATS in its last four conference games and a 7-3 record ATS in its last 10 games on the road. I have the Bulls winning this game SU to continue this year's undefeated run through the MAC.
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