NCAA Football Mid-Major Free Betting Picks: Wyoming Cowboys Week 3
Ladies and gentlemen welcome to the 2019 Mid-Major Betting Report. I am excited to carry on an eight-year tradition that has helped bettors win more than $2,000 in profit. For those who have been following the Mid-Major Report since the beginning, welcome back and I hope a new point of view will give you the added edge needed to take the sportsbooks for as much money as they have. For those of you who are new to the Mid-Major Betting Report, I will be taking you on an exclusive season-long journey starting this week and ending in Bowl season with none other than the Wyoming Cowboys - a team many picked to win the Mountain West Conference.
The goal of this weekly article is to help you understand the importance of specializing in one particular conference and/or on one particular team. I understand the fact that every bettor wants to be able to win their bets on the nationally-televised games featuring ranked teams, but the truth of the matter is that those lines very rarely have any value left by the time you're able to bet them. Smaller conferences like the MWC may not have as many eyeballs on them as the Big Ten or SEC, but that helps us as bettors because the lines tend to be a little softer than the games featuring publicly-backed teams.
Each week this article will take give you a small recap on how the team fared in their last game. You'd be surprised at how many times a team's win/loss outcome was either justified or lucky to happen. The box score may say one thing, but actually watching the game and seeing what's happening is a vital tool in handicapping. At the end of the article, I'll give you a selection on the upcoming game. I'll be using the Doc's Sports Unit Betting System for every pick , which will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Wyoming got the job done on the road over Texas State to push their record to 2-0 (1-0 Away) on the season. That brings their ATS mark to an unblemished 2-0 as well, after their Week 1 upset win over Missouri as 17.5-point underdogs.
In Week 2, the Cowboys found themselves trailing 7-0 after the opening quarter and found themselves down 14-3 four minutes into the second quarter. They struck through Sean Chambers, who had a 7-yard TD run with 2:56 left in the half to pull within four points. From there, the Cowboys' defense took over and essentially sealed the game taking an interception back 72 yards for a touchdown in the third quarter. Wyoming would go on to shut out Texas State in the second half en route to a 23-14 win as seven-point favorites. The Cowboys held Texas State to just 5-of-13 on third down but somehow gave up a total of 444 yards despite winning the turnover battle 3-1.
Week 3 vs. Idaho
As of this writing, 5Dimes is the only site with a posted lined on this game. The current line is Wyoming -24.5 (-120) and the posted total is set at 55.5 (-120). If I was a betting man, which I am, I'd be inclined to say that the line moves up towards 25.5 before it ever moved down towards 23.5.
Considering that both teams enter this game on a winning note, you'd likely be inclined to think the spread is far too high for the Cowboys to cover. Don't let the fact that Idaho put up 41 in their last game fool you into thinking they are a great offense, when in fact that was against a Division II team, and they also gave up 31 points themselves. Wyoming should have their way on both sides of the ball as they definitely boast the better defense and should be full of confidence after shutting out Texas State for the second half.
It's going to be on the Wyoming offense to get out of the gates a lot quicker than they have in their first two games as they've mustered only 73 total yards and zero first-quarter points. That's something that has got to change. And if they want to cover the spread for the third straight game, the passing attack is going to need to prove the doubters wrong by racking up some yardage. Quarterback Sean Chambers has a completion percentage of just 41.1 through two games, completing 14 of 34 attempts.
Series History: These two teams have met twice before - a home-and-home series in 2012-13. The Vandals almost pulled off the upset in 2012 but fell to the Cowboys 40-37 in overtime at the Kibbie Dome. In 2013, Wyoming made it a bit easier on themselves by routing Idaho 42-10 in Laramie.
Idaho at Wyoming College Football Picks
Normally, when a team hasn't shown the ability to matriculate in the passing game, laying a big number like this is a very risky proposition. We do like how the defense has turned it around over the course of the last six quarters. And against a team like Idaho, who was drilled 79-7 by Penn State in Week 1, we like the defense to find the endzone at least once this week. We are predicting a breakout game offensively for the Cowboys in front of their home crowds, and we are going to go ahead and lay the 24.5 points with the Cowboys.
Selection: 2-Unit Play on #216. Take Wyoming -24.5 (-120) over Idaho (Saturday, September 14 at 5pm).
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