Week 4 College Football Week 3 NFL Free Picks from Doug Upstone
This is a big weekend of college football action, and here we have all the biggest line moves covered in college football and in the NFL. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, and our free picks and predictions (120-91-3 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.
CFB - (323) NEBRASKA at (324) ILLINOIS 8:00 ET BTN
Nebraska being elevated from -10 to -13.5 at Illinois speaks to two components. One is that those making college football picks are counting on the Cornhuskers to play to their preseason potential, and the other is that they really do not believe Illinois is better this season despite their 2-1 record. Honestly, it is hard to find fault with this thinking with Illini coach Lovie Smith 4-23 SU and 10-17 ATS in Big Ten play. Nebraska also has a huge size and speed edge, and the crowd in Champaign would hardly be considered "loud". (Except for all the Nebraska fans that will be there.) Coach Scott Frost teams have typically fed off their success, and the Huskers are 6-0 ATS after one or more wins against the spread.
Betting Trend - 86% backing Nebraska
Doug's Doc's Take - Nebraska covers
CFB - (329) OLD DOMINION at (330) VIRGINIA 7:00 ET ESPN2
The total in this Mid-South showdown has dropped like the chances of those with Steelers futures tickets to win the AFC North. The total is down from 52 to 46, a whopping six points! Old Dominion is only scoring 20 points a game and Virginia is allowing 18.3 PPG. Nevertheless, Virginia has a good versatile offense that averages 37.7 PPG and see no reason why the original college football odds were not correct, despite weather concerns, and I will support the "Over".
Betting Trend - 70% backing Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Over
CFB - (343) MICHIGAN at (344) WISCONSIN 12:00 ET FOX
Those betting football are counting on a real Big Ten battle that will feature the old phrase, "three yards and cloud of dust." The total in this confrontation of ranked teams has slipped from 47 to 44.5. With how Michigan's bumbling offense has played and with Wisconsin having yet to allow a point in eight quarters, one can follow the logic of lowering the total. In dissecting this contest, it very much has the feel of 21-17 final score and the Wolverines are 22-9 to the under in road games off two home wins.
Betting Trend - 77% backing Under
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under
CFB - (367) AUBURN at (368) TEXAS A&M 3:30 ET CBS
This SEC clash has sinking total, down from 50 to 47.5. With how Auburn's defense is playing and with what Texas A&M has shown, especially at Clemson, this could be the right direction. The Tigers Bo Nix does not play like a freshman quarterback, but he's never played a true conference road game; and what a place to start at College Station. Though I like Kellon Mond as a quarterback, watching him against Clemson's defense makes me nervous to think he'll play well versus Auburn. With the visitor 15-5 to the under after posting 450 or more total yards and 21-8 to the under facing winning teams, we will follow the crowd.
Betting Trend - 70% backing Under
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Under
CFB - (385) OREGON at (386) STANFORD 7:00 ET ESPN
With Stanford having lost road games to USC by 25 points and by 18 at UCF, football bettors are quacked up about Oregon and waddled them from -8 to -10.5 at Stanford. The Cardinal look slow on defense and are lacking in their usual offensive punch. But in the famous words of Lee Corso, "Not so fast my friends!" The sportsbooks did not come with that number just for fun, and Stanford knows a third straight loss places their chances of a better-than-average season in rough shape. With Oregon 1-8 ATS after a win by 21 or more points the last three seasons and catching the hook on the home team, let's take it!
Betting Trend - 94% backing Oregon
Doug's Doc's Take - Stanford covers
NFL - (463) DETROIT at (464) PHILADELPHIA 1:00 ET FOX
Other than one bad quarter of football in the Valley of the Sun, the Detroit defense has played exceedingly well. The Eagles stop troops have not been as strong, playing well in segments of games and lacking consistency. The total is down four points for these reasons and the anticipation of stormy weather. Putting the weather aside, I'm seeing two offenses that are herky-jerky and defenses that can control what they will come up against, which all leads to fewer points.
Betting Trend - 69% backing Under
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Under
NFL - (467) CINCINNATI at (468) BUFFALO 1:00 ET CBS
The battling Buffalo Bills have their home opener against Cincinnati, and those making NFL picks like their chances of reaching 3-0. The Bills are up two points to -6 over the Bengals. After playing well at Seattle, Cincy broke down like a motorized scooter and was demolished by San Francisco. Going to tap the brakes on Buffalo, not entirely convinced they are deserving of handing out these many digits and that Cincinnati can rebound from a pathetic outing.
Betting Trend - 69% backing Buffalo
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Cincinnati
NFL - (487) L.A. RAMS at (488) CLEVELAND 8:20 ET NBC
Similar to the Lions/Eagles game above, weather is supposed to impact this Sunday night skirmish, and the total has dipped from 51 to 47. However, if I'm reading the weather maps correctly, this should be less an issue in northern Ohio. What should be of greater concern is Baker Mayfield not recognizing defenses. The Jets had him confused all night and the Browns based on field position should have scored at least 13 more points their final number of 23. I'm of the opinion the adjusted number is spot on and have a slight lean with the Under, trusting both defenses will play well.
Betting Trend - 62% backing Under
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Under
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 51% to 79% - 181-168-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 80% or Higher - 55-61-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) - 216-221-7 ATS
Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
$$ Doug started the weekend with a 4-unit Jaguars outright upset.
$$ Doug has 9 Red Hot Plays and with week package are less than $10 each.
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