NCAA Football Week 8 NFL Week 7 Free Picks by Handicapper Doug Upstone
When looking over the line moves for college football and the NFL, we ended up with a total of nine conflicts for you to ponder. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (135-110-3 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.
CFB - (317) DUKE at (318) VIRGINIA 12:30 ET ACCN
These teams are tied with North Carolina for the lead in the Coastal Division, and by the end of Saturday, the winner could be alone in first place. At least from the betting perspective, that those making college football picks are favoring Duke, who has been lowered from +4.5 to +3 at Virginia . What has created doubt about the Cavaliers is not only two straight defeats but the lack of a running game and pass protection. Truthfully, think Virginia is still the better club, but the Blue Devils are a sharp 8-0 ATS as road underdogs of three or less, making them the play.
Betting Trend - 54% backing Duke
Doug's Doc's Take - Duke covers
CFB - (351) WISCONSIN at (352) ILLINOIS 12:00 ET BTN
Other than their Northwestern rumble, it's hard to find teams more impressive than Wisconsin. The Badgers have four shutouts at the halfway point of the season, and the school record is five, set 88 years ago. (not kidding) According to ESPN Stats, Wisconsin is the first FBS school to record four shutouts in its first six games since Oklahoma in 1967 and the first Big Ten team to do so since Minnesota in 1962. That is why Wisconsin was lifted from -28 to -31 against Big Ten partner Illinois . The less than Fighting Illini have lost nine in a row to their neighbors to the north. This is one of my "want to" games. If Wisconsin wants to cover the spread they do, if not, they won't. With Ohio State on tap for the Badgers, let's say they play hard for two quarters and cruise in and fail to cover.
Betting Trend - 89% backing Wisconsin
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Illinois covers
CFB - (377) TCU at (378) KANSAS STATE 2:30 ET FSN (side and total)
These clubs are desperately attempting to hang around and nab a spot for the Big 12 championship game. For all intents and purposes, this is an elimination game . TCU's been elevated two points to -3.5 at the Little Apple and the total is down two digits to 44.5. The visitor is 3-1 SU and ATS of late. TCU on the hook is not easy to swallow, however, K-State lacks the passing offense to really attack the Horned Frogs secondary. In breaking down all the components, this has the look of parlay action with TCU and "Over" or Kansas State and Under and I'll side with the latter.
Betting Trend - 68% backing Kansas State and 90% on Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Kansas State and Under
CFB - (389) BAYLOR at (390) OKLAHOMA STATE 4:00 ET FOX
The largest total move that has nothing to with the weather or injury, is this Big 12 bash. This is being counted on as your typical matador defensive skirmish in this conference, as the total blew up from 63.5 to 68.5. Oklahoma State is 28-9 Over in Stillwater versus teams averaging 425 or more yards a game. While Baylor has improved defensively under coach Matt Ruhle, and would be on a 4-0 Under run except for their game with Texas Tech going to OT, his team has not faced an offense that is truly balanced to both run and throw like Okie State. The value in this conflict has been drained like by a vampire but still believe we will hit 70 points if not more against the college football odds .
Betting Trend - 60% backing Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Houston covers
CFB - (391) AUBURN at (392) ARKANSAS 12:00 ET SECN
Even though Auburn was upped from -17 to -19.5, making Arkansas very tempting at home, have to go with the teams' strengths and weaknesses. After a bye week and loss to Florida, the Tigers defense has more than enough skill to take control of a Razorbacks offense that is pedestrian. On offense, coach Gus Malzahn will turn the game over to his O-Line that averages 230 yards on the ground against Hogs defenders not able to get off the field at more than 32 minutes a contest. Auburn's a solid 29-15 ATS after covering three out of their last times and polishes off Arkansas.
Betting Trend - 82% backing Auburn
Doug's Doc's Take - Auburn covers
NFL - (457) MINNESOTA at (458) DETROIT 1:00 ET FOX
Detroit, by all appearances, is an improved football team, but cannot put teams away in the fourth quarter, which explains both losses and tie this season. With Kirk Cousins actually playing like a real NFL starting quarterback the last couple of weeks, Minnesota was flipped from +1 to -2 in the Motor City. This NFC North matchup swings on the Vikings ability to run on the Lions No. 27 Run-D and contain what Detroit tries to accomplishing toting the pigskin. With the Lions 3-13 ATS after two straight losses by six or less points, taking the Vikes.
Betting Trend - 54% backing Minnesota
Doug's Doc's Take - Minnesota covers
NFL - (459) OAKLAND at (460) GREEN BAY 1:00 ET CBS
When Green Bay opened at -7, Oakland was a very tempting selection, and many others agreed. The Packers are on a short week, while the Raiders have not played on the gridiron in two weeks. Since that release of the NFL odds, Oakland is down to +5, and suddenly the Pack has a new appeal. Jon Gruden has his team playing smarter football, and he's doing a wonderful job in play-calling, nevertheless, they are still the Raiders until proven otherwise and are 15-32 ATS after a win by three points or less.
Betting Trend - 63% backing Green Bay
Doug's Doc's Take - Lean Green Bay covers
NFL - (469) BALTIMORE at (470) SEATTLE 4:25 ET FOX
Amazed would be too strong a word to describe the total slipped two points to 48.5. Still, there is more than enough big plays for both quarterbacks to put together as they have all season against defense that are conceding 23 or more points. Defensive breakdowns are occurring versus QB's who know how to make plays, and Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson will have chances to exploit these weaknesses. With Baltimore is 13-4 Over after playing a game at home and Seattle 7-0 Over after a victory by six or less points, Count on a minimum of 51 points.
Betting Trend - 66% backing Over
Doug's Doc's Take - Play Over
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 51% to 79% - 187-185-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) - 80% or Higher - 60-67-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) - 230-241-7 ATS
Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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