Missouri State Bears vs Arkansas State Red Wolves Prediction, 12/18/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Missouri State Bears vs Arkansas State Red Wolves

Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025

Location: Ford Center At The Star in Frisco, TX

TV: ESPN2

Odds/Point Spread: Red Wolves (-1.0)

Total/Over-Under: 54.5

The Missouri State Bears (7-5) are traveling to Ford Center At The Star on Thursday, December 18, 2025 where they will attempt to beat the Arkansas State Red Wolves (6-6) in the Xbox Bowl. Missouri State opens as 1.0-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The over/under has been set at 54.5.

The Missouri State Bears step onto the field holding a record of 7-5 for this season. In their last contest, the Bears stepped onto the field against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and went home with a loss by a final score of 42-30. When the final whistle blew, they tallied 58 plays which totaled 416 yards. The Missouri State Bears ended up rushing 27 different times and compiled 122 yards, which had them averaging 4.5 yds per carry. On the ground, the Bears gave up 388 yards on 51 attempts, which is 7.6 yds per rush surrendered. Missouri State surrendered 8 pass completions on 13 attempts for a total of 87 yds, and a completion rate of 61.5%.

The Bears have earned 4,702 total yards this year. With reference to getting the ball in the endzone, Missouri State has amassed 26 passing touchdowns and 12 touchdowns on the ground. They have surrendered the football 16 times. Missouri State has tallied 244 first downs as a team, and they have committed 85 penalties for 749 yds. As a unit they're holding an average of 117.9 yards rushing ranking this team at 114th in Division 1. Concerning getting in the endzone, the Missouri State Bears are averaging 25.4 points per outing.

Regarding passing yards, the Bears have given up 2,695 yds which has them ranked 75th in D-1. They have yielded 224.6 yards per game through the air in addition to allowing a completion percentage of 65.1%. In total, they have relinquished 384.8 yards per contest putting them at 79th in the country. They have yielded 16 touchdowns by air as well as 25 touchdowns on the ground. The opposition is running for 4.8 yards per rush and 160.2 rushing yards per game so far this year. Overall, they have conceded 1,922 yards on the ground through 12 contests. The Bears are ranked 89th in Division 1 regarding team defense, allowing 28.3 points per game.

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The Red Wolves come into this game with a record of 6-6 for this season. The last time they took the gridiron, the Red Wolves walked away with a victory by a final of 30-29 when they faced the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Arkansas State gave up 36 attempts on the ground for 182 yds (5.1 yds per rush). The Red Wolves passing defense allowed a completion percentage of 66.7%, relinquishing 271 yards on 26 out of 39 passing. The Red Wolves finished the contest with 448 yds while running 81 plays (5.5 yds per play). Arkansas State ran the ball for 2.5 yds per attempt, finishing with a total of 85 yds on 34 carries.

Concerning this team's ability to score points, the Red Wolves are ranked 90th in the nation maintaining an average of 24.4 points per game. The Arkansas State Red Wolves maintain an average of 384.7 yards per game, which is good for 72nd in D-1. The Arkansas State offense has 642 penalty yards on 72 infractions, which has them ranked 69th in Division 1 in terms of helping out the opposition. They have tossed 12 picks while allowing opponents to recover 11 fumbles and they have been able to record 272 first downs. During this campaign to this point, the Red Wolves have thrown for a total of 3,086 yards via the pass together with holding an average of 257.2 throwing yards per game, putting them at 35th in Division 1. They maintain an average of 127.5 rushing yards per game and have run for 1,530 yards in total.

Arkansas State has surrendered a total of 2,142 rushing yards (178.5 yards per outing) and 24 touchdowns via the rush for the year. They have allowed 17 touchdowns via the pass as well as 236.3 yards/outing, which puts them in 99th in the country. Overall, they have relinquished 328 total points. They have 7 fumbles recovered and 7 interceptions for the year. The Red Wolves defense has been on the field for 815 plays, which ranks them 89th in the nation. The Red Wolves are conceding 27.3 points per contest, which has them ranked 83rd in D-1.

Who will win tonight's Bears/Red Wolves college football game against the spread?

Parlays Pundit's Pick: Take the Red Wolves -1.0

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