New Mexico Lobos vs Air Force Falcons Prediction, 11/22/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New Mexico Lobos vs Air Force Falcons

Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025

Location: Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, CO

TV: CBSSN

Odds/Point Spread: Falcons (+3.5)

Total/Over-Under: 56.5

The Air Force Falcons (3-7) will play the New Mexico Lobos (7-3) at Falcon Stadium on Saturday, November 22, 2025. New Mexico opens this contest as 3.5-point favorites. The over/under has been set at 56.5.

The New Mexico Lobos come into this matchup with a record of 7-3 for this season. In their last contest, the Lobos took on the Colorado State Rams and earned the victory with a final of 20-17. For the game, they had 64 plays which converted into 348 yards. The New Mexico Lobos ran the ball 39 different times and accrued 122 yards, earning them an average of 3.1 yards per carry. When it came to stopping the run, the Lobos gave up 88 yds on 29 attempts, which is an average of 3.0 yds per run surrendered. New Mexico allowed 36 pass completions on 47 tries for a total of 382 yards, and a completion percentage of 76.6%.

When talking about scoring, the New Mexico Lobos are averaging 29.2 points per game. Offensively they are averaging 150.8 yards on the ground which has them sitting 78th in the nation. The Lobos have earned 3,850 total yards for the year. When it comes to scoring touchdowns, New Mexico has earned 16 passing touchdowns and 18 rushing touchdowns. New Mexico has compiled 201 first downs as a team, and they have been called for 60 penalties for 496 yds. They have surrendered the football 21 different times.

Regarding passing yardage, the Lobos are allowing 2,619 yards which has them ranked 115th in Division 1. They have conceded 261.9 yards per game through the air as well as conceding a completion percentage of 70.5%. During the season, they have yielded 367.7 yards per outing which has them ranked 67th in college football. They have yielded 16 touchdowns by air as well as 12 touchdowns on the ground. They are allowing teams to run for an average of 3.4 yards per rush on the ground and 105.8 rushing yards per contest this year. During this campaign, they have given up 1,058 running yards through 10 contests. The Lobos sit in 73rd in D-1 regarding team defense, conceding 25.0 PPG.

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The Falcons come into this matchup with a record of 3-7 this season. The last time they took the field, the Falcons took a loss by a score of 26-16 against the Connecticut Huskies. Air Force ran the ball for 5.0 yds per carry, finishing the game with 290 yards on 58 attempts. The Falcons finished the contest with 356 yds on 69 plays (5.2 yards per play). The Falcons pass defense gave up a completion rate of 65.2%, surrendering 155 yards on 15 out of 23 passing. Air Force allowed 30 run attempts for 192 yards (6.4 yds per carry).

In relation to their scoring prowess, the Falcons are sitting 46th in Division 1 averaging 31.3 points per game. The Air Force Falcons average 429.8 yards per contest, ranking them 32nd in the country. The Air Force offense has 375 penalty yds on 43 infractions, which is good for 125th in the country in terms of making mistakes. They have tossed 6 picks while letting opponents recover 4 fumbles and they have been able to earn 228 first downs. During the season to this point, the Falcons have earned 1,587 yards via the pass in addition to holding an average of 158.7 passing yards per outing, which has them sitting 123rd in the country. They average 271.1 yards per game via the rush and have rushed for 2,711 yards for the year.

Air Force has yielded a total of 1,718 yards via the ground game (171.8 yards/game) as well as 24 touchdowns via the rush for the year. They have allowed 15 touchdowns through the air and 274.8 yards/outing, which has them in 131st in Division 1. This year, they have allowed 323 total points. Their defense has earned 3 fumbles recovered and 7 picks for the season. The Falcons defense has been on the field for 602 plays, which is good for 15th in the country. The Falcons are allowing 32.3 points per game, which puts them 122nd in the nation.

Who will win tonight's Lobos/Falcons college football game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Lobos -3.5

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