North Carolina Tar Heels vs UCF Knights Prediction, 9/20/2025 College Football Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: North Carolina Tar Heels vs UCF Knights

Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025

Location: FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, FL

TV: FOX

Odds/Point Spread: Knights (-6.5)

Total/Over-Under: 49

The North Carolina Tar Heels (2-1) are hitting the road to FBC Mortgage Stadium on Saturday, September 20, 2025 where they will meet the UCF Knights (2-0). UCF opens this matchup as 6.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The betting total is set at 49.

The North Carolina Tar Heels head into this game 2-1 for this year. In their last contest, the Tar Heels played against the Richmond Spiders and earned the victory with a final of 41-6. The North Carolina Tar Heels ran the football 31 different times and had 193 yds, which earned them an average of 6.2 yds per attempt. When all was said and done, they had 50 plays which totaled 312 yds. North Carolina surrendered 9 pass completions on 15 attempts for a total of 75 yds, and a completion percentage of 60.0%. When it came to the battle of the line of scrimmage, the Tar Heels gave up 124 yards on 48 attempts, which is an average of 2.6 yards per run surrendered.

The Tar Heels have tallied 837 total yards for the season. With reference to distribution of touchdowns, North Carolina has totaled 4 passing touchdowns and 4 touchdowns via the ground. They have turned the football over 4 times. North Carolina has earned 41 1st downs as an offense, and they have been hurt by 12 penalties for 130 yards. As a unit they have an average of 130.3 yards in the run game ranking this team at 102nd in Division 1. Concerning getting in the endzone, the North Carolina Tar Heels hold an average of 25.0 PPG.

The Tar Heels are sitting in 55th in D-1 when it comes to team defense, allowing 19.0 points per game. Opposing teams are running for an average of 3.6 yards per running attempt and 134.3 rushing yards per game for the campaign. During this campaign, they have given up 403 yards on the ground through 3 games. When talking about yards through the air, the Tar Heels are allowing 609 yards which puts them in 71st in Division 1. They are allowing 203.0 yards per game through the air as well as giving up a completion percentage of 64.9%. Over the course of this season, they have yielded 337.3 yards/outing which has them ranked 70th in D-1. They have granted 2 touchdowns via the pass in addition to 2 touchdowns running the ball.

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The Knights head into this matchup 2-0 for this year. When they last stepped on the field, the Knights got the victory with a final of 68-7 against the North Carolina A&T Aggies. UCF ran for 11.1 yards per attempt, totaling 356 yds on 32 attempts. The Knights finished the game with 560 yards and they ran 56 plays (10.0 yards per play). The Knights passing defense allowed a completion percentage of 45.5%, surrendering 40 yards on 5 for 11 through the air. UCF relinquished 51 running attempts for 160 yds (3.1 yds per rush).

The UCF Knights have an average of 491.0 yards/contest, ranking them 21st in Division 1. The UCF offense has racked up 135 yards of penalties on 15 infractions, which has them ranked 89th in the country in terms of giving up free yards. They have an average of 232.0 yards via the ground game and have run for 464 yards for this year. They have 1 fumble and they have tallied 43 1st downs. In relation to the points being put on the board, the Knights are sitting 23rd in the country with 42.5 points per outing. During the season thus far, the Knights have thrown for 518 yards via the pass along with holding an average of 259.0 passing yards per game, giving them a rank of 43rd in the nation.

The Knights are giving up 8.5 points per contest, which puts them 9th in the country. UCF has conceded a total of 325 yards via the ground game (162.5 yards/game) and 2 touchdowns rushing on the year. They have allowed the opposition 0 touchdowns via the pass and 98.5 yards per contest, ranking them 3rd in Division 1. The Knights defense has taken part in 131 plays, which is 13th in college football. They have compiled 2 fumbles recovered and 2 interceptions on the year. This year, they have relinquished 17 pts.

Who will win tonight's Tar Heels/Knights college football game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Knights -6.5

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